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The Bare Knuckled Pundit
08-12-2008, 10:23 PM
In light of Russian President Medvedev's order to halt combat operations and an apparent ceasefire agreement settling into place, the combat phase of Russia’s interventionist adventure in Georgia appears to be coming to an end.

While the fog of war still lingers over Georgia, a few things are becoming crystal clear.

-With Russia's emasculation of the Georgian military, look for Russian forces to retrench in the separatist South Ossetian and Abkhazian regions and consolidate their territorial gains.

They have de facto successfully dismembered Georgia and demonstrated their willingness to use force to whip their former republics back into line in the process.

In the aftermath, they will retain significant forces in the separatist regions as "peacekeepers" to insure the protection of the locals from Georgian retribution. However, under the “watchful eye” of the Bear, be prepared for reports of ethnic cleansing perpetrated by those the Russian military are “protecting from retribution”.

Don't look for Russian forces to withdraw or give up territory any time soon; if ever. In the process, Georgia will effectively loose control over roughly a fifth to of its territory.

-Not only has Prime Minister Vladimir Putin clearly demonstrated it is his hand that fills the iron gauntlet of Russian state power, but he also has nothing but disdain for the West and what he perceives as its weak and petulant leaders.

In particular, Putin is contemptuous of what he believes to be Bush's naïveté after the whole "I looked into his soul" comment. Bush made the mistake of believing his personal relationship would lay the foundation for a pro-western resolution when conflicts arose between Russia and the West. Putin, on the other hand, to paraphrase the Godfather, believes nothing is personal; everything is business.

-If you follow Russian behavior under Putin, they have a tendency to push the boundaries up to the tipping or flaring point and then backtrack about half way; retaining a significant advantage or objective in the end. Two steps forward, one step back.

And lest anyone think otherwise, Putin is a master at identifying and taking full advantage of moments of critical opportunity.

Dzerzhinsky and Andropov smile proudly from their spots in the Kremlin wall.

-Effectively crushing the Georgian military in short order, the Kremlin believes it has reestablished its’ military credibility and respect. In doing so, there is the belief that they have exorcised the ghosts of their humiliations in Afghanistan and Chechnya.

Putin went hunting for Russian glory in Georgia and walks away with a significant political trophy to display domestically. The fact that it came at the expense of a fledgling ally of the United States makes the victory even sweeter.

Add to this that many Russians feel the US and the West took advantage of her in the 90's and treated her like a drunken whore and you've got some powerful emotional and psychological undercurrents at play here.

Even beyond the issue of respect, at the end of the day the Russians would rather be feared than anything else by their neighbors and the international community. Fear equals respect in the Russian strategic lexicon.

-Russian President Dmitry Medvedev plays the role of good cop to Putin’s bad cop and it is nothing more than that; a role. Medvedev has no power beyond his ceremonial and purely symbolic title. Putin will use him to distract the West while he rules Russia with an iron fist and works tirelessly to resurrect the Russian empire and restore the Rodina to its’ rightful position on the world stage.

-French President Nicolas Sarkozy is increasingly stepping to the forefront of Western leadership and dragging France back onto the world stage with him. His mission to Moscow to negotiate a ceasefire with Medvedev – though meeting with the “face” and not the power of the Russian state – is an example of an increasingly confident France moving forward to engage in active burden sharing in the Western alliance.

While the French have long thought of themselves as the height of Western culture, they have played no significant role in its political leadership since the end of World War II; until now.

Sarkozy is quickly moving to take Tony Blair’s position as America’s most ardent ally. He fully acknowledges and respects the debt the West owes America for its leadership during World War II and in the post-War world.

Similarly, he realizes that the French and Europe must step forward and do their fair share to make the trans-Atlantic alliance a true partnership.

-Though some dismiss the episode and believe the end result is a return to the pre-invasion status quo, Georgian villages have been ravaged and burnt, the military mauled and its capital and major airport bombed.

Furthermore, where there was once concern and unease about the intentions and willingness of the Bear to exercise force among its former republics, there is now very real and justified fear.

As the Reagan commercial of 1984 so astutely pointed out, there is a Bear in the woods, faithful readers. And clearly it is again on the prowl. Stay tuned for further updates as events warrant and the Bear looks about to expand its territory.

Dilloduck
08-12-2008, 10:52 PM
This obviously hurts Russia in the world congeniality contest and has to be a big boost for fans of the USA which has recently tumbled in the standings by being mean to Arabs.

USA USA :salute:

Kathianne
08-13-2008, 10:24 AM
http://ap.google.com/article/ALeqM5g8-DEMtAE9q4i4ySQ0eV_qZefmRQD92HFIA86

Sure there's a ceasefire. :rolleyes:





AP Top News at 11:05 a.m. EDT

16 minutes ago

OUTSIDE GORI, Georgia (AP) — Russian troops and paramilitaries thrust deep into Georgia on Wednesday, rolling into the strategic city of Gori and violating the truce designed to end the six-day war that has uprooted 100,000 people and scarred the Georgian landscape. Georgian officials said Gori was looted and bombed by the Russians, who denied the claim. An AP reporter later saw dozens of tanks and military vehicles leaving the city, roaring southeast.

Kathianne
08-13-2008, 12:41 PM
http://ap.google.com/article/ALeqM5g8-DEMtAE9q4i4ySQ0eV_qZefmRQD92HFIA86

Sure there's a ceasefire. :rolleyes:

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/georgia_russia

More evidence of the Soviet's 'word':


Russian troops roll into key Georgian city

By CHRISTOPHER TORCHIA and MATTI FRIEDMAN, Associated Press Writer 8 minutes ago

OUTSIDE GORI, Georgia - Russian troops and paramilitaries rolled into the strategic Georgian city of Gori on Wednesday, apparently violating a truce designed to end the conflict that has uprooted tens of thousands and scarred the Georgian landscape.
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Georgian officials said Gori, a central hub on Georgia's main east-west highway, was looted and bombed by the Russians before they left later in the day.

Moscow denied the accusations, but it appeared to be on a technicality: a BBC reporter in Gori reported that Russians tanks were in the streets as their South Ossetian separatist allies seized Georgian cars, looted Georgian homes and then set some homes ablaze.

"Russia has treacherously broken its word," Georgia's Security Council chief Alexander Lomaia said Wednesday in Tbilisi, the capital....

and this is a bit ominous:


...In Washington, President Bush said he was skeptical that Moscow was honoring the cease-fire and announced that a massive U.S. humanitarian effort was already in progress, and would involve U.S. aircraft as well as naval forces.

"To begin to repair the damage to its relations with the United States, Europe and other nations and to begin restoring its place in the world, Russia must keep its word and act to end this crisis," Bush said.

...