Italy muzzled scientist who foresaw quake

[-Cp]

hmmm...


http://www.alertnet.org/thenews/newsdesk/L6566682.htm

ROME, April 6 (Reuters) - An Italian scientist predicted a major earthquake around L'Aquila weeks before disaster struck the city on Monday, killing dozens of people, but was reported to authorities for spreading panic among the population.

The first tremors in the region were felt in mid-January and continued at regular intervals, creating mounting alarm in the medieval city, about 100 km (60 miles) east of Rome.

Vans with loudspeakers had driven around the town a month ago telling locals to evacuate their houses after seismologist Gioacchino Giuliani predicted a large quake was on the way, prompting the mayor's anger.

Giuliani, who based his forecast on concentrations of radon gas around seismically active areas, was reported to police for "spreading alarm" and was forced to remove his findings from the Internet.

Italy's Civil Protection agency held a meeting of the Major Risks Committee, grouping scientists charged with assessing such risks, in L'Aquila on March 31 to reassure the townspeople.

"The tremors being felt by the population are part of a typical sequence ... (which is) absolutely normal in a seismic area like the one around L'Aquila

[hjmick]

Woops.

[5stringJeff]

The government tried to silence someone? No!!! Say it isn't so!!!

[Kathianne]

The government tried to silence someone? No!!! Say it isn't so!!!

Would a government do such a thing? :eek: Rush Limbaugh? (I don't care for him, not Olberman, but wouldn't silence either.)

[Little-Acorn]

People make earthquake predictions all the time, for pretty much every point on the globe. They almost universally turn out to be wrong.

Before the quake actually hit, was there any particular reason to believe this guy more than the last few dozen?

That said, should government have stepped in and shut the guy down? No, of course not. Did it shut down any other previous predictions?

[DannyR]

Not certain I can disagree with the Italian government here. The guy was giving out warnings a month before. They just supposed to abandon the whole town that far in advance?

Disaster predictions and warnings have always been a tricky subject. On one hand, you obviously don't want anybody to be killed when warning is available. On the other, you don't want just anyone giving an alarm anytime they think there is trouble.

This was a big issue back in the USA around the turn of the last century. US weather department was fighting a battle with Cuba on Hurricane warnings. Under the cuban system, warnings were given frequently, most of them false alarms and disrupted trade significantly. However they did tend to have every hurricane pegged correctly when they did show up.

The US system however was more conservative in their warnings and did all they could to keep false warnings from going out. One result was the Galveston disaster, when little if any warning was ever given (which Cuba btw, predicted). Today warnings can still only be authorized by the national weather service I believe before radio/tv can broadcast them.

If the guy had been closer to predicting the correct time, I'd give him credit. But a month in advance? No so certain Italians were wrong to keep him quiet.