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View Full Version : Is Inflation About To 'Hit'?



Kathianne
07-15-2009, 07:18 AM
Lots of links:

http://reason.com/blog/show/134792.html


Inflation Twitches, Blinks Eyes...
Tim Cavanaugh | July 14, 2009, 6:52pm
The Producer Price Index for Finished Goods rose 1.8 percent in June, the Labor Department reports. That's a big step up from a 0.2 percent increase in May and a 0.3 percent increase in April.

But it's not enough to qualify as inflation to Bernard Baumohl of the Economic Outlook Group. "We're experiencing deflation still," Baumohl tells The New York Times. "That's largely because U.S. and international economies are so very weak."

Jon C. Ogg of 247wallst.com gave a closely argued pre-release writeup on the PPI:


Because oil was much higher and because the bias through much of June was still bullish in oil, tomorrow's figure could be a false alarm for the inflation hawks. If that number comes in much lighter then expected, then it is going to give the inflation hawks even less of a basis for all the fears that prices were heading through the roof any time soon. The big rise in oil was in May when prices at the end of April went from the mid-$50's up into the $70's by June. As there is a lag on that, we won't be shocked if a higher number on the headline PPI is the result. But the trend in oil rigs is already contracting again, and that does not lend much credibility to the notion of suddenly higher oil prices nor that of a sudden return of demand.

Another notion to consider is that, even with a one-week figure of sub-600K job losses, the shrinking confidence of CEOs, shrinking consumer expectations, and a growing unemployment will continue to offset all that hypothetical new printed money for some time.

The PPI increase came in at about double expectations after that was written....

avatar4321
07-15-2009, 02:21 PM
Im actually very worried about when it hits. I cant afford things as it is.

Insein
07-15-2009, 02:46 PM
Its going to suck. My guess is next spring. We can't keep printing money at this rate and not expect it to blow up in our faces.

manu1959
07-15-2009, 05:48 PM
well the feds have been printing money and flooding the market with dollars to try to make inflation happen.....the o man and his boys have been spending like a drunken sailor....and taxes on the rich are going up.....

not working yet......anyone remember the carter years....home loans were what ....20%.....oh joy....

9/12er
07-15-2009, 05:51 PM
not working yet......anyone remember the carter years....home loans were what ....20%.....oh joy....

I'm way too young to remember that (I was born a few days before Reagan was elected) but I do remember my dad telling me that he was HAPPY to get 13.5% on his mortgage for the house I grew up in... (that was in '85)

Gaffer
07-15-2009, 06:28 PM
I remember the carter years very well. And watching history repeat itself is not fun. The shit has barely started to hit the fan. Even the fan is about to be so clogged it won't turn. Even after Reagan got into office it took years for the the recovery to even get started.

manu1959
07-15-2009, 09:59 PM
I'm way too young to remember that (I was born a few days before Reagan was elected) but I do remember my dad telling me that he was HAPPY to get 13.5% on his mortgage for the house I grew up in... (that was in '85)

yep and homes were cheap then.....didn't iran hate us then too.....at least the gas lines were fun.....