Interesting look at realclearpolitics.com Senate polls

[Little-Acorn]

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2010/senate/2010_elections_senate_map.html

Many people are familiar with RealClearPolitics' polls. The website does no polling of its own, but takes all the polls that have been recently run by others, and averages them, to try to present a more accurate look at how elections might go.

In today's (Monday, Nov. 1, the day before the election) polls on the various Senate races, RCP presently projects 48 seats definitely leaning Democrat, 45 Republican, and 7 "toss-ups". (This may change later today, of course).

But the "toss-ups" are interesting. Those are not "ties", but they are polls where the edge one candidate has, is within the Margin of Error.

What's interesting, is that in five of them, the latest poll shows the Republican candidate ahead. In only two, are the Democrat candidates ahead. And in most cases, the Republican has been gaining over the last week or so of polling.

So, if the election were held today, and the result came out as these poll-averages describe, Republicans would wind up with 50 seats in the Senate, and Democrats (incl. so-called "independents" who always vote Dem) the other 50 seats.

A good omen?

[red states rule]

http://media.hotair.com/wp/wp-content/uploads/2010/10/wave-massive.jpg


The Cook Report has the same data. Grab your surf board here comes the wave




The Cook Report Issues Final Forecast: GOP Gains 50 to 60 Seats in the House

In its final forecast for the election cycle, The Cook Political Report expects a gain for Republicans of 50 to 60 seats in the House, with six to eight seats in the Senate. Below are the final outlooks and latest ratings changes.

House Outlook
The Cook Political Report's pre-election House outlook is a Democratic net loss of 50 to 60 seats, with higher losses possible. A turnover of just 39 seats would tip majority status into Republican hands. The midterm maelstrom pulling House Democrats under shows no signs of abating, if anything it has intensified. Whereas fewer than a third of Democratic Senate seats are up for election, House Democrats are suffering the full violence of this national undertow. Over a quarter of the entire 255-member House Democratic caucus have trailed GOP opponents in at least one public or private survey, and nearly half have tested under 50 percent of the vote in at least one poll. At this point, only 181 House seats are Solid, Likely or Lean Democratic, while 204 seats are Solid, Likely or Lean Republican, and 50 seats are in the Toss Up column. While there are certain to be at least 43 new members of the House thanks to 41 open seats and two vacancies, between 40 and 50 incumbents (over 95 percent of them Democrats) are likely to lose their seats, making for possibly the largest freshman class since 1992.

Senate Outlook
The Cook Political Report is adjusting its current outlook to reflect a net gain for Republicans of 6 to 8 seats, down from 7 to 9 seats. While it is becoming increasingly likely that Republicans will hold all 18 of its own seats, Democrats' prospects in three of their 19 seats have improved in recent days. Sens. Barbara Boxer in California and Patty Murray in Washington now appear to be headed for re-election, albeit by small margins. In the special election in West Virginia, Democratic Gov. Joe Manchin now holds an advantage. Currently there are 57 Democrats, two independents that caucus with Democrats, and 41 Republican Senators. Post-election, Republicans could hold between 47 and 49 seats to 51 to 53 seats for Democrats. This new outlook means that the odds of Republicans winning a majority in the Senate are now non-existent.

http://www.nationaljournal.com/politics/the-cook-report-issues-final-forecast-gop-gains-50-to-60-seats-in-the-house-20101101