Some Random Thoughts and Feelings

[Kathianne]

May be a bit liberal here in letting 'feelings' tend to lead off:

Over the past 3 or 4 weeks I've had a serious sense of foreboding. What if what we've thought of as a long, deep economic downturn has actually been just a prelude to what is to come? None of us, not 'us' on the boards, but Americans in general, left and right respect those in government for the most part. Oh we might like some candidates or the newly elected, but they end up the same as the rest. Our system really cannot survive without the consent of the people, no matter what they think.

Billions were lost last Thursday, poof! Gone! One of the good things about not having any money, there really isn't any to lose. But, what was lost will be reflected in what the government takes in next quarter and will not show up in investments or jobs that may have been. Unemployment numbers are reported differently than they used to be, giving us a downtick to 9.1 on Friday. Yet our government, sort of reminiscent of German efficiency in documenting the work camps, does actually keep and report all numbers, you just have to look for them. Take a look at U6 in the chart that follows, it explains the numbers on food stamps in an easy form:

http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.t15.htm

http://i52.tinypic.com/fnsjyu.png

The world has always been dangerous, with some areas more dangerous than others. The Greeks, the Roman, The English and French all learned those lessons. Yes, the US learned from mistakes of our predecessors. Lincoln's plans for not being overly harsh on the Southern leaders were the right way to go. Unfortunately they were dead with his death. The attempts to stay out of WWI, seeing the lack of reason for the war were right. However, the apparent inability to end the carnage and the effects it was having on the US economy basically meant we had to enter for that year. Bad leaders can have terrible consequences in times of crisis, Wilson's idea of the League of Nations and a call to avoid reparations and punishments were good. However, he was blinded to the cynicism of Europe and the need to consult with the Senate in this country. The hubris of the man put us in a very bad position. The nihilism of the 20's certainly was a part of that.

FDR, putting aside his domestic agenda, possessed the foresight of Lincoln and the cunning of Lloyd George and Clemenceau together. First he let Europe, particularly the UK bleed itself dry both in terms of men and money. Went from neutrality to cash and carry, and then lend-lease. The attack on Pearl Harbor of course led to joining the allies and providing what was needed. While the UN as a success depends on one's definition, there really can be little argument that the Marshall Plan was a great success in preventing a collapse of both democracy and capitalism.

After 9/11 first in Afghanistan, later in Iraq the people were warned that there wouldn't be a quick victory and it wouldn't be like wars gone bye. It would be a hot war, but not quick. We were dealing with people we didn't understand, still don't. Nor they us. After nearly a decade though, one thing is clear. The people of the US really are war exhausted, emotionally and financially. I know of no one who isn't turning towards isolationism, though they wouldn't call it that for the most part.

With those feelings though, Obama and whoever follows has some tough choices to make. Look at the past couple months. Pakistan has been repeatedly caught undermining our efforts, even financing attacks on our troops. Turkey seems to be undergoing some change the West in general is unsure of. Iran keeps building up their military capabilities with bad intentions towards US and Israel and domination of the Middle East. Oh on that last point, Turkey will have some thoughts on that, along with India. Most people seem unaware that the US has had quite a bit going on in Lebanon and that Syria looms as the same type of situation. China is certainly concerned about our debt and failure to address, but not nearly as concerned about the problems they face domestically. Still they too keep spending on building their military. Anyone notice the riots in Britain overnight?

Much of the world is rearming, the US is again moving towards home and disarming to some extent, the degree of which will probably be forced through debt.

What I don't have here is a conclusion, just random thoughts and the sense of foreboding previously mentioned.

[chloe]

Our Country is pretty young when you compare them to the rest, we rose to the top pretty fast and may indeed crash n burn, but history shows us those lessons, we are a good bunch and resourceful, even if we had to do a major overhaul I think we will be fine and get through it. :salute:

[ConHog]

Our Country is pretty young when you compare them to the rest, we rose to the top pretty fast and may indeed crash n burn, but history shows us those lessons, we are a good bunch and resourceful, even if we had to do a major overhaul I think we will be fine and get through it. :salute:



I don't know. Historically democracies (even representative ones) last about 200 years. What will be our downfall if we are not careful is losing our manufacturing base.

[Kathianne]

I don't know. Historically democracies (even representative ones) last about 200 years. What will be our downfall if we are not careful is losing our manufacturing base.

I don't think the manufacturing base, any more than the prior agriculture base is the problem. It's the intrinsic relationship between the governed and governors. Seems about to split.

[ConHog]

I don't think the manufacturing base, any more than the prior agriculture base is the problem. It's the intrinsic relationship between the governed and governors. Seems about to split.


Eh, that goes in cycles, we can kick the bums out without destroying our entire form of government. If people are hungry and jobless though , look out.

Of course voting the bums out does no good if we just turn around and vote an entire new bunch of bums in, but that's another matter.

[Gaffer]

I get that same gut feeling you do Kath. We so often think alike on these things. I get the same premonition you do. Something bad is going to happen. History repeating itself with slight variations. What bothers me most is the media black out and half truths. We are entering a second great depression and a third world war. Only this time we are going to be part of it all from the start.

Great post.

[Kathianne]

Well Gaffer, seems were not alone:

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/general_politics/august_2011/new_low_17_say_u_s_government_has_consent_of_the_g overned



New Low: 17% Say U.S. Government Has Consent of the Governed

Sunday, August 07, 2011

Fewer voters than ever feel the federal government has the consent of the governed.

A new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey finds that just 17% of Likely U.S. Voters think the federal government today has the consent of the governed. Sixty-nine percent (69%) believe the government does not have that consent. Fourteen percent (14%) are undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here (http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/questions/pt_survey_questions/august_2011/questions_elections_august_1_2_2011) .)

The number of voters who feel the government has the consent of the governed - a foundational principle, contained in the Declaration of Independence - is down from 23% in early May (http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/general_politics/may_2011/just_23_say_federal_government_has_consent_of_the_ governed) and has fallen to its lowest level measured yet.

Perhaps it's no surprise voters feel this way since only eight percent (8%) believe the average member of Congress listens to his or her constituents more than to their party leaders. That, too, is the lowest level measured to date. Eighty-four percent (84%) think the average congressman listens to party leaders more than the voters they represent.

Voter approval of the job Congress is doing (http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/mood_of_america/congressional_performance) has fallen to a new low - for the second month in a row. Only six percent (6%) now rate Congress' performance as good or excellent...
...

Democrats and voters not affiliated with either political party are more inclined to think the government does have the consent of the governed, but sizable majorities of all three groups don't believe that to be the case.

Fifty-five percent (55%) of the Political Class (http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/general_politics/august_2010/67_of_political_class_say_u_s_heading_in_right_dir ection_84_of_mainstream_disagrees) , on the other hand, feel the government does have the consent of the governed. Seventy-seven percent (77%) of Mainstream voters disagree. ...

[Kathianne]

More to think about regarding Turkey and that dangerous neighborhood in general:

http://ricochet.com/main-feed/With-Whose-Generals-Does-Turkey-Plan-to-Threaten-Assad


With Whose Generals Does Turkey Plan to Threaten Assad?

(http://ricochet.com/main-feed/With-Whose-Generals-Does-Turkey-Plan-to-Threaten-Assad) Claire Berlinski, Ed. (http://ricochet.com/Profile/Claire-Berlinski-Ed) · 2 hours ago


In the wake of the Ramadan massacre (http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/syrias-ramadan-massacre/2011/08/01/gIQAZHCKoI_story.html) in Hama, which prompted even the Russians to sign on to a statement of condemnation at the UN Security Council, Turkish officials are properly appalled and furious. They are now using minatory language:


[Turkey and Syria] will sit down and talk for one last time … even though one should not exclude dialogue even in wartime,” another Foreign Ministry official said. “The talks will show whether the ties will be cut loose or not … If a new [Turkish] policy is to be outlined on Syria – that’s the last meeting.”


The problem--of course--is that the AKP's strategic doctrine has been "soft power" and "defanging the military," and soft power doesn't mean a damned thing to Assad. Assad is capable of reading a newspaper, and knows full well that the United States is broke and tuned-out and that twelve percent of Turkey's serving admirals and generals are in prison. He also knows the Turkish military is deeply demoralized.


This is the strategic situation: Iran has threatened to retaliate against Turkey if it interferes. It can, and everyone knows it. Quite some number of the Turkish military's senior leadership would be unlikely at this point to trust to NATO or American guarantees. How many? I don't know. But it's logical. After all, where was America, where was NATO, when their leadership was being locked up for years, without conviction, on incoherent charges of coup-plotting? Oh, yes, they were exhilarated.


The point of having a strong military is not to use it. If you have to use it, your foreign policy has been a failure. The point of a strong military is deterrence--in other words, to signal, credibly, that you might use it. In this, Turkey is obviously compromised right now...

[Kathianne]

With an hour to go before the opening bell:

And two ironic comments yesterday; one from Tim Geithner, (http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-08-07/geithner-says-european-nations-must-get-fiscal-house-in-order.html) one from Alan Greenspan (http://www.cnbc.com/id/44051683); illustrate just how nonsensical the world has become.


...Treasury Secretary Timothy F. Geithner said European governments need to get their “fiscal house” in order and provide a financial backstop for economies under pressure.

“What Europe needs to do is to make sure that there’s an unequivocal financial backstop,” Geithner said, according to the transcript of an interview with NBC and CNBC television today. “So there is no doubt in anyone’s mind that those countries have the ability and the will to meet their obligations. That’s essential to managing crises.” ...



...Former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan on Sunday ruled out the chance of a US default following S&P's decision to downgrade America's credit rating.

"The United States can pay any debt it has because we can always print money to do that. So there is zero probability of default" said Greenspan on NBC's Meet the Press ...

and just to add to the farce, from someone that provided the phony numbers:

The Farce Is (Again) Complete: Former Obama Budget Chief Orszag Says Official Economic Projections "Too Optimistic" | ZeroHedge (http://www.zerohedge.com/news/farece-again-complete-former-obama-budget-chief-orszag-says-official-economic-projections-too-o)


"Former Obama Budget Chief Orszag Says Official Economic Projections "Too Optimistic"

And so the comedy circle is complete yet again after none other than former White House budget chief Peter Orszag throws cold water in the face of the White House, the Treasury and everyone else who has so far been so stupid to continue to deflect blame for America's horrendous fiscal situation purely on S&P and its "colossal $2 trillion mistake." Because if the guy who up until a year ago personally came up with the White House's voodoo numbers is telling you they are full of shit (the numbers, not the White House), perhaps it does put the administration's claim that it is all S&P excel spreadsheet skills that are at fault, in a slightly different light. Links at site.

[revelarts]

I had that feeling for the past 7 years. But Kath you Gaffer are really concerned about the M.E.. You know I'm not that worried. If the U.S. losses it military and economic status It does not mean that SUDDENLY the Mongol hoards will flood the streets with death. the people in the M.E. have their own issues and Europe is a much closer target. IF they wanted to do anything militarily. But I'm not sure where they will buy the weapons from if the U.S. is on it's back financially. We are the world Gun shop. But you know, the US only became a big military power after the 2 world wars. Before that we some how prospered and grew economically. Sweden isn't a Military world power yet it's managed to maintain its boarders and sovereignty. USSR/Russia is not as dominant but they haven't been over run. Even with a bitter Afghanistan at their door step. Military might is important but I think the top dog status is overrated when it come sto real world security. Most nations can't and won't try to muster an army to attack us even if we are $ strapped. I'm MUCH more concerned about the more insidious forms of internal corruption and fascist/Socialism getting a open foothold. Power hungry thugs thrive in a weak political climates. If the people don't hold a clear vision of what freedom is , out for FEAR, we might "elect" a series of dictators to "save us" and "protect us" from -???- . Like Children wanting to stay with Abusive parents becuase we are afraid of the the big bad world. but ya got me started here... here's the hated/loved Ron Paul making to much sense to be in politics summing up the situation. <iframe width="640" height="390" src="http://www.youtube.com/embed/FHCkFPaePPQ" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe>

[revelarts]

I've had that feeling for the past 7 years. But Kath you Gaffer seem really concerned about the M.E.. You know I'm not that worried. If the U.S. losses it military and economic status It does not mean that SUDDENLY the Mongol hoards will flood the streets with death. the people in the M.E. have their own issues and Europe is a much closer target. IF they wanted to do anything militarily. But I'm not sure where they will buy the weapons from if the U.S. is on it's back financially. We are the world Gun shop. But you know, the US only became a big military power after the 2 world wars. Before that we some how prospered and grew economically. Sweden isn't a Military world power yet it's managed to maintain its boarders and sovereignty. USSR/Russia is not as dominant but they haven't been over run. Even with a bitter Afghanistan at their door step. Military might is important but I think the top dog status is overrated when it come sto real world security. Most nations can't and won't try to muster an army to attack us even if we are $ strapped. I'm MUCH more concerned about the more insidious forms of internal corruption and fascist/Socialism getting a open foothold. Power hungry thugs thrive in a weak political climates. If the people don't hold a clear vision of what freedom is , out for FEAR, we might "elect" a series of dictators to "save us" and "protect us" from -???- . Like Children wanting to stay with Abusive parents becuase we are afraid of the the big bad world. but ya got me started here... here's the hated/loved Ron Paul making to much sense to be in politics summing up the situation. <iframe width="640" height="390" src="http://www.youtube.com/embed/FHCkFPaePPQ" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe> ...

[Kathianne]

Ron Paul is Looney Tunes Times. I don't need to go to conspiracy sites to figure out what is giving unease, just to regular news sites and some personal analysis. While I support your right to believe whatever you like, I'm certainly not 'joining' where you are at.

[revelarts]

thanks for the specific an well reasoned reply Kath.

[Kathianne]

thanks for the specific an well reasoned reply Kath. I've given my views and supporting reasons previously, many times. You know that. As for the rest, some examples are above.

[Gaffer]

Sorry rev but to me Paul is a right wing version of ralph nader. And he's an isolationist. The current administration is very much a threat to us. And the economy is top of the list to be fixed. But the ME is a threat to world peace and stability. If it erupts as I think it's going to then Europe will burn. And the fundamentalist Turks are looking at restoring the Ottoman empire which included much of today's Europe. All that's going on in the ME today is a holding action similar to the cold war. The brotherhood (aka nazis of the middle east) is slowly taking over everything there. And being appeased by our administration. That's gonna bite us in the future the same as Chamberlain was disgraced. Different characters, different places, same story line.

[Kathianne]

thanks for the specific an well reasoned reply Kath. I've given my views and supporting reasons regarding Ron Paul previously, many times. You know that. As for the rest, some examples are above. I had to copy and paste my previous reply, couldn't edit.

[revelarts]

Sorry rev but to me Paul is a right wing version of ralph nader. And he's an isolationist. The current administration is very much a threat to us. And the economy is top of the list to be fixed. But the ME is a threat to world peace and stability. If it erupts as I think it's going to then Europe will burn. And the fundamentalist Turks are looking at restoring the Ottoman empire which included much of today's Europe. All that's going on in the ME today is a holding action similar to the cold war. The brotherhood (aka nazis of the middle east) is slowly taking over everything there. And being appeased by our administration. That's gonna bite us in the future the same as Chamberlain was disgraced. Different characters, different places, same story line.

I appreciate the response but i just don't agree that the ME Muslims are going to invade anyone anytime soon, next 50 - 100 years. The Turks are corrupt but who have they attacked in the last 100 years? Only their own Armenian population. BTW We've paid off Turks and Visa versa while Bush was in office as well. Look up the American Turkish Council. But the Turks track record doesn't lead me to believe they are aggressive or "Anti" US. the Germans of the 1930's were gearing up for war on ever side, this Brotherhood seems FAR less organized in that respect. Different storyline. But Europe does have a problem but IMO it's more internal and it's not going to be solve by their military.

[revelarts]

I've given my views and supporting reasons regarding Ron Paul previously, many times. You know that. As for the rest, some examples are above. I had to copy and paste my previous reply, couldn't edit.

Forgive me Kath but I don't recall you responding to the content of what Ron Paul has said on many occasion.
What i remember is your regularly painting him a bad light via race and characterizing a few of his statements about FED as crazy. other than that you've just been dismissive of everything else.
baby out with the bath water.
So no i don't recall you ever addressing what Paul or I mention here specifically. But maybe it's my memory.

[Gaffer]

I appreciate the response but i just don't agree that the ME Muslims are going to invade anyone anytime soon, next 50 - 100 years. The Turks are corrupt but who have they attacked in the last 100 years? Only their own Armenian population. BTW We've paid off Turks and Visa versa while Bush was in office as well. Look up the American Turkish Council. But the Turks track record doesn't lead me to believe they are aggressive or "Anti" US. the Germans of the 1930's were gearing up for war on ever side, this Brotherhood seems FAR less organized in that respect. Different storyline. But Europe does have a problem but IMO it's more internal and it's not going to be solve by their military.

Everyone has to be brought into line. Think about Austria and Hungary, Romania. They were all brought on board relatively peacefully. The ME has more countries and territory. But it's all going according to plan. The sticky part is iran. There will be some sort of conflict between the brotherhood and iran in the next few years. Then there will be the pushing and shoving to see who controls the whole shameele. Turkey, Egypt or the Saud's. Then the assault on Israel will begin. They need to keep Israel around until they can meld everything into one caliphate. This is all within a 20 year time frame.

[revelarts]

Everyone has to be brought into line. Think about Austria and Hungary, Romania. They were all brought on board relatively peacefully. The ME has more countries and territory. But it's all going according to plan. The sticky part is iran. There will be some sort of conflict between the brotherhood and iran in the next few years. Then there will be the pushing and shoving to see who controls the whole shameele. Turkey, Egypt or the Saud's. Then the assault on Israel will begin. They need to keep Israel around until they can meld everything into one caliphate. This is all within a 20 year time frame.

hmm, somethings to consider, Time will tell, I hope your wrong though.

[Kathianne]

Forgive me Kath but I don't recall you responding to the content of what Ron Paul has said on many occasion.
What i remember is your regularly painting him a bad light via race and characterizing a few of his statements about FED as crazy. other than that you've just been dismissive of everything else.
baby out with the bath water.
So no i don't recall you ever addressing what Paul or I mention here specifically. But maybe it's my memory.

What I did was grab a few things that encapsulated why I came to discard Paul, after first being attracted to a few things I'd heard. That's pretty much my MO, when I hear something that peaks my interest in a candidate, I try to research them. What I found on him quite easily was the racist stuff.

Yes, that is one of my breaking points. I don't have that many 'no deal' points, racism is one.