Poll: Romney Claims Slight Edge in 15 'Battleground' States

[jimnyc]

These 'battleground states' are what will matter most in the long run...


President Obama remains marginally ahead of Mitt Romney in a new national CNN/ORC International poll released on Monday, although Romney leads Obama in the 15 states identified by the network as battleground states.

Obama leads Romney nationally, 49 percent to 46 percent, with 4 percent of those surveyed saying they would vote for another candidate or neither candidate. That is inside the poll's margin of error, and it is identical to the 49 percent to 46 percent lead Obama had in the previous poll, conducted in late May. It is also similar to the latest Gallup tracking poll, which shows Obama leading Romney by 5 percentage points, the president's high-water mark from a survey house that has been less favorable to him thus far during the campaign. That lead among registered voters is Obama's largest in Gallup since April.

However, in the 15 states CNN calls its battleground states — Arizona, Colorado, Florida, Indiana, Iowa, Michigan, Missouri, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, and Wisconsin — Romney leads Obama, 51 percent to 43 percent. Notably, though, the CNN/ORC International group includes three states thought to be comfortably in the Romney column this cycle: Arizona, Indiana, and Missouri.

http://news.yahoo.com/poll-romney-claims-slight-edge-15-battleground-states-164545408.html;_ylt=A2KLOzGP5vJPnRUA.Q3QtDMD

[red states rule]

I do like the fact the Hope and Change President is not able to break 50% in nearly all the polls coming out

Yet the Obama re-election team in the liberal media consider Obama a shoe in for re-election

[mundame]

Here's another view, from the July 2 Wall Street Journal, with their poll with NBC. I think they take an interesting slant, saying that only "battleground" states actually count, because if a state is sewn up for either Obama or Romney, it doesn't matter how many extra votes turn out. Like my Maryland always goes Democratic: always. So it doesn't count in this sort of consideration.

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It's Fourth of July week, a kind of All-Star break for the presidential campaign. The economy is still sagging, unemployment remains above 8% and the Fed just lowered its forecast for economic growth this year.
Pretty bleak stuff for President Barack Obama. Yet he still enjoys a modest lead in most presidential-campaign polls.

Multiple factors account for that, obviously, but the president reaches this stage with three distinct advantages that are serving him well:
The swing-state edge. If a candidate is going to do well anywhere, obviously the place to beat expectations is in the swing states that will decide the election. It's fine to rack up big vote margins in the states firmly in your camp, and fine to let your opponent win big in states you have no hope of winning. The key is battleground states such as Ohio, Florida and Virginia.
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And the latest Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll, completed last week, indicates that Mr. Obama is doing well precisely in the dozen swing states crucial to deciding the election. By the same token, in poll tracking compiled by Real Clear Politics, he leads in all those states except one, North Carolina. Equally important, his Republican opponent, Mitt Romney, has some image problems in those same places.

Just a few numbers prove the point. Overall in the new Journal/NBC News survey, Mr. Obama had a three-point lead over Mr. Romney, 47% to 44%. In the swing states—the 12 states the Journal and NBC News have identified as the battleground states—he had an eight-point advantage, 50% to 42%. Intriguingly, that advantage has widened; it was an average of just two points from January through April.
Voters also have more positive than negative perceptions of the president in those states, by 48% to 39%. By the same margin, voters in swing states say Obama economic policies have helped rather than hurt.
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By contrast, perceptions of Mr. Romney don't seem to be improving in swing states; 41% of voters there view him negatively, while 30% say they have a positive image, a reading that has gotten worse since he clinched the GOP nomination. Perhaps most troubling for the Romney campaign, the candidate's business experience—the principal calling card for his candidacy—also is viewed as a net negative. Stunningly, voters in swing states are just as likely as voters in solidly Democratic states to say that Mr. Romney's business experience makes them view him more negatively.

All this isn't an accident. Those readings are a sure sign that the Obama campaign ads running in swing states, charging that Mr. Romney's record at Bain Capital (http://www.debatepolicy.com/public/quotes/main.html?type=djn&symbol=bci.xx) shows he killed off jobs in the firms he bought and sent some abroad, have taken a toll.
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I bolded the parts about the swing states, because I think that's a good point. Maryland or Utah aren't going to matter. We KNOW how they'll come into the Electoral College count. It's the states that we DON'T know how they'll vote that matter, maybe.

I don't think this election is sewn up for Obama, despite these two polls (WSJ and RealClearPolitics) --- war with Iran and thus higher gas prices, or a whacking great recession which DOES look all too possible could change the whole election. But right now Obama is having some good polls.

[avatar4321]

as much as i like the sound of that, i am not going to get my hopes up until November after we vote. I mean how many people got their hopes up with the obamacare decision only to be shocked and disappointed by it?

It's time we start being humble as a people and putting Firm Reliance in Divine Providence as our Founders did.