CNN poll finds Obama 6% ahead... by sampling 11% more Democrats than Republicans

[Little-Acorn]

A CNN poll released Monday, Sept. 10, 2012, found that 52% of "likely voters" would vote for Obama today, while 46% would vote for Romney.

How did CNN find this out?

By asking 441 Democrats while asking only 397 Republicans. That's 11% more Democrats than Republicans.

I'm so glad the media isn't biased.

See the raw poll at http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2012/images/09/10/rel10a.pdf

[Little-Acorn]

As has been pointed out elsewhere, Dukakis' poll numbers were way ahead of Reagan's in Sept. 1984; Carter was ahead in Sept. 1980; and Clinton was anywhere from 20-30% ahead of Dole in 1996, but finally won by 9%.

Why is it that Democrats always get far more favorable poll numbers before an election, than they actually wind up getting in the election itself?

The excuse of "It's just a random statistical fluctuation" doesn't really cut it any more.

Can anybody name ANY poll before an election, in the last thirty years, where the Republican candidate got a larger predicted percentage in the poll than he wound up getting in the election itself?

[tailfins]

A CNN poll released Monday, Sept. 10, 2012, found that 52% of "likely voters" would vote for Obama today, while 46% would vote for Romney.

How did CNN find this out?

By asking 441 Democrats while asking only 397 Republicans. That's 11% more Democrats than Republicans.

I'm so glad the media isn't biased.

See the raw poll at http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2012/images/09/10/rel10a.pdf

Every poll must be looked at in this level of detail. Let's also remember that this also corrupts the Real Clear Politics average of polls.

[Trigg]

That's ok, let them get complacent and stay home election day.

This is going to be a tight race, if the dems are over confident that works in our favor IMHO

[aboutime]

Imagine that? CNN has a poll that finds Obama ahead?

"Turn out the lights Ethel. The Party's Over"

....as Dandy Don Meridith used to sing at the conclusion of Monday Night Football.

When CNN speaks. You can tell. A Democrat is being echoed.