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View Full Version : Assoc Press "poll" finds Obama ahead by 1% - by asking 41% more Dems than Republicans


Little-Acorn
09-19-2012, 12:36 PM
It's actually pretty amazing that they have to ask so MANY more Democrats than Republicans, just to eke out a 1% advantage in responses.

What does that say about the actual result of the Nov. 6 election... if FEWER than 41% more Dems than Republicans, actually show up? Like, what if equal numbers of Democrats and Republicans show up to vote on Nov. 6?

What this "poll" tells me, is that the actual election will be a blowout victory for Romney.

Does anyone actually think that 41% more Democrats than Republicans, will actually show up to vote on Nov. 6?

http://surveys.ap.org/data/GfK/AP-GfK%20Poll%20September%202012%20Topline_1st%20rele ase.pdf
LiberalNation
09-19-2012, 12:41 PM
Obama is going to win, I'd bet on it.
tailfins
09-19-2012, 01:38 PM
Obama is going to win, I'd bet on it.

You can do exactly that:

http://intrade.com/v4/markets/contract/?contractId=743474

Don't let sending a cashier's check to Ireland scare you; they are a reputable business.
LiberalNation
09-19-2012, 05:37 PM
or I could just find some republican in the US and put $10 on it.
red states rule
09-20-2012, 02:48 AM
It's actually pretty amazing that they have to ask so MANY more Democrats than Republicans, just to eke out a 1% advantage in responses.

What does that say about the actual result of the Nov. 6 election... if FEWER than 41% more Dems than Republicans, actually show up? Like, what if equal numbers of Democrats and Republicans show up to vote on Nov. 6?

What this "poll" tells me, is that the actual election will be a blowout victory for Romney.

Does anyone actually think that 41% more Democrats than Republicans, will actually show up to vote on Nov. 6?

http://surveys.ap.org/data/GfK/AP-GfK%20Poll%20September%202012%20Topline_1st%20rele ase.pdf

It tells me the Obama Reelection team is very worried about November and they over sample to get the poll results they want

They had the tape of Mitt's comments for months and were probably waiting to release it in October - but panic has set in as the Obama economy is getting worse - so they released it now

All the media coverage is designed to keep Romeny voters home by trying to paint a picture the election is over and Obama has it won

I would like remind everyone that Jimmy Carter was ahead of Ronald Reagan in the polls at this time in the 1980 election