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glockmail
09-25-2012, 07:53 AM
Un-Skewed pools show Romney up by 8%.


In most all things, I try to follow Hanlon’s (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hanlon%27s_razor) (or Heinlein’s (http://blog.writch.com/2009/04/hanlons-razor-which-i-knew-as-heinleins-razor.html)) Razor: “Never attribute to malice that which is adequately explained by stupidity.”

This is particularly important to remember when looking at polls.Sometimes, however, one must wonder.
As I pointed out yesterday (http://pjmedia.com/tatler/2012/09/22/gallup-on-romneys-terrible-month/), the result of Romney’s “really bad week” was that Romney had gone from 5 or 6 points behind in Gallup, to essentially tied. Even so, a number of people have noted that there are some odd assumptions in that poll, and others. Pat Caddell and Doug Schoen (http://www.examiner.com/article/two-democratic-pollsters-confirm-major-polls-skewed-against-mitt-romney) talked about it recently. Asked if the polls were, in his opinion, a fair representation of the electorate, Schoen said:

“The simple answer is no John. The bottom line is there were seven percent more Democrats in the electorate in 2008 than there were Republicans. That’s from the exit polls and that’s about as accurate as you can get….President Obama (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/President_Obama) won by about seven points. Given 90 percent of Democrats vote for the Democrat and 90 percent of Republicans vote for the Republican, every time you reduce the margin between the parties by one point, roughly it’s about one point off the margin.”
Schoen pointed out that the Pew poll was based on Democrats sampled for having an 11 percent voters registration edge over Republicans. He further added, “saying that America has gotten more Democratic than 2008, which is a questionable assumption.”
In fact, Rasmussen keeps a running monthly poll of party identification. In the latest poll, released September 1, they found:

During August, 37.6% of Americans considered themselves Republicans. That’s up from 34.9% in July and 35.4% in June. It’s also the largest number of Republicans ever recorded by Rasmussen Report since monthly tracking began in November 2002.
Other polls — including Gallup — apparently have similar assumptions (called “turnout models”) in their polls.
There is a new website, called unskewedpolls.com (http://www.unskewedpolls.com/), that basically reweights the data to fit the Rasmussen party identification. Their results are quite different, giving Romney somewhere between a five and eleven point lead.

http://pjmedia.com/tatler/?s=skewed+and+unskewed+polls&submit.x=0&submit.y=0&search_sortby=date

glockmail
09-25-2012, 07:54 AM
<tbody>
Poll
Date
Sample
MoE
Obama(D)
Romney(R)
Spread


UnSkewed Avg.
9/4 - 9/20
--
--
44.0
51.8
Romney +7.8


Reason/Rupe (http://www.examiner.com/article/mitt-romney-seven-percent-lead-reversed-skewed-reason-rupe-poll-1?cid=db_articles)
9/13 - 9/17
787 LV
4.3
45.0
52.0
Romney +7


Reuters/Ipsos (http://www.examiner.com/article/mitt-romney-double-digit-lead-unskewed-data-from-reuters-ipsos-poll-1?cid=db_articles)
9/12 - 9/20
1437 LV
2.9
44.0
54.0
Romney +10


NBC News/WSJ (http://www.examiner.com/article/barack-obama-boosted-by-skewed-nbc-news-wall-street-journal-poll?cid=db_articles)
9/12 - 9/16
736 LV
3.6
44.0
51.0
Romney +7


Monmouth Univ. (http://www.examiner.com/article/mitt-romney-denied-lead-skewed-monmouth-university-poll?cid=db_articles)
9/13 - 9/16
1344 LV
2.5
45.0
50.0
Romney +5


QStarNews (http://www.examiner.com/article/mitt-romney-leads-11-percent-new-qstarnews-presidential-poll?cid=db_articles)
9/10 - 9/15
2075
3.0
44.0
55.0
Romney +11


NY Times/CBS News (http://www.examiner.com/article/mitt-romney-lead-hidden-by-doubly-skewed-new-york-times-cbs-news-poll)
9/8 - 9/12
1162 LV
3.0
44.0
51.0
Romney +7


Democracy Corps (http://www.examiner.com/article/barack-obama-leads-five-percent-heavily-skewed-democracy-corps-poll)
9/8 - 9/12
1000 LV
3.1
43.0
52.0
Romney +8


Fox News (http://www.examiner.com/article/mitt-romney-lead-presidential-race-denied-by-skewed-fox-news-poll)
9/9 - 9/11
1056 LV
3.0
45.0
48.0
Romney +3


Wash. Post/ABC News (http://www.examiner.com/article/mitt-romney-leads-seven-percent-by-unskewed-data-from-wash-post-abc-news-poll)
9/7 - 9/9
826 LV
4.0
45.0
52.0
Romney +7


CNN/ORC (http://www.examiner.com/article/mitt-romney-would-lead-eight-unskewed-data-from-newest-cnn-orc-poll)
9/7 - 9/9
875 RV
3.5
45.0
53.0
Romney +8


IBD/CSM/TIPP (http://www.examiner.com/article/barack-obama-leads-narrowly-skewed-tipp-poll)
9/4 - 9/9
808 RV
3.5
41.0
50.0
Romney +9


ARG (http://www.examiner.com/article/mitt-romney-10-percent-lead-unskewed-data-from-arg-poll)
9/4 - 9/6
1200 LV
3.0
43.0
53.0
Romney +10

</tbody>


http://www.unskewedpolls.com/

Gaffer
09-25-2012, 08:41 AM
In spite of the media portraying Romney as being behind he's going to win in a landslide. Unless the dark one nullifies things with an executive order.

jimnyc
09-25-2012, 09:23 AM
It will be summarily dismissed because your link is pjmedia, even thought the source of the polls have nothing to do with that site!

I'm thinking of what Clint Eastwood said at the convention when I see polls, about how the democrats run around bragging and screaming about their affiliations, and the republicans and conservatives tend to be a little quieter and wear their opinions and feelings closer to their heart. Ok, so he didn't exactly say it in that exact way, but that's what the tough old bugger meant!

Little-Acorn
09-25-2012, 02:06 PM
GREAT find!

http://www.houseofpolitics.com/attachments/unskewed_25sep2012-1-jpg.279/

Of course, what these polls show is how the election would turn out if Dems and Republicans voted in the same proportions as they actually exist in the country.

What they don't show, is what would happen if the current high Republican enthusiasm, and Democrat apathy and discouragement, caused MORE Republicans to vote than Democrats.

If more Repubs vote and fewer Dems (that's what happened in the 2010 congressional elections) ... well, the conclusion is left as an exercise for the class. :D

Toro
09-25-2012, 06:35 PM
People believing the OP are going to be disappointed on Nov 7.

If you think the polls are wrong, go to Intrade and bet on Romney. He has been sinking like a stone and trades at 27 cents, down nearly 20 cents over the last three weeks.

I believe the market before I believe someone who doesn't seem to understand the math behind polling.

glockmail
09-25-2012, 07:00 PM
So, BullShit, what's wrong with the math?

It's retarded to compare betting with scientific polling.

Kathianne
09-25-2012, 07:14 PM
People believing the OP are going to be disappointed on Nov 7.

If you think the polls are wrong, go to Intrade and bet on Romney. He has been sinking like a stone and trades at 27 cents, down nearly 20 cents over the last three weeks.

I believe the market before I believe someone who doesn't seem to understand the math behind polling.

Toro, normally I'd agree, but from all I've read the pollsters are basing their base on 2008 data, wrong to begin with. Add in the skewing and yes, we have a near conspiracy of a confidence game.

Lord I loathe that I wrote that and it may well come back to bite me.

Tyr-Ziu Saxnot
09-25-2012, 08:01 PM
People believing the OP are going to be disappointed on Nov 7.

If you think the polls are wrong, go to Intrade and bet on Romney. He has been sinking like a stone and trades at 27 cents, down nearly 20 cents over the last three weeks.

I believe the market before I believe someone who doesn't seem to understand the math behind polling.

^^^^^^^^^^^^ WISHFUL THINKING --:laugh: