Kathianne
08-25-2015, 11:14 AM
http://hotair.com/archives/2015/08/25/oh-my-trump-35-kasich-11-fiorina-10-in-new-hampshire-with-strength-head-to-head/
Oh my: Trump 35, Kasich 11, Fiorina 10 in New Hampshire — with strength head-to-head,Update: Leads by 15 in South Carolina tooPOSTED AT 11:21 AM ON AUGUST 25, 2015 BY ALLAHPUNDIT
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As noted in the excerpt, he’s not doing it with just one subgroup either. Head to head, among evangelicals, he defeats Rubio, Bush, and Walker. Only Ben Carson tops him. Among people who say they’re more concerned with nominating someone who has the best chance of beating the Democrat in the general election — i.e. electability — than someone who’s the most conservative on the issues, Trump crushes Rubio, Bush, Walker, and Carson head to head, winning all four match-ups by double digits and beating Bush by an amazing 26 points. That’s a brutal reality for Jeb given that New Hampshire is his must-win early state; if voters there think Donald Trump is vastly more electable than he is, presumably because of the baggage that comes with Bush’s surname, then he’s done. On the other hand, Trump also wins all four match-ups among voters who say they’re more concerned with nominating the person who’s most conservative on the issues, an implausible result given Trump’s many ideological heresies. He beats Rubio in that metric by 16 points head to head(!), which can only be explained by their differences on immigration, I think. Either immigration is weighing very heavily on New Hampshire primary voters or voters are mistakenly assuming that Trump is a staunch conservative on policy issues across the board simply because he’s loudly hawkish about the border. Either way, if you’re a Trump skeptic, the fact that he’s beating Scott Walker among people who want the most conservative candidate should give you hope that Trump’s lead here is ephemeral. The attack ads educating people about his liberal record will come fast and furious this fall. So, in fact, will the attack ads pointing out all the outre things he’s said in the past, which will affect perceptions of his electability. The money question about Trumpmania is how much of it is based on fully informed populism, i.e. people who love Trump warts and all, and how much is based on low information, i.e. people who’ve heard nothing more about him than “The Apprentice” and the fact that he’s been pounding the table about closing the border. We’ll know in a few months.
Exit question via Gallup (http://www.gallup.com/poll/184814/hispanics-frown-trump-not-rest-gop-field.aspx): You really think the donor class is going to be dragged into battle against Hillary (or Biden) behind a guy with numbers like this?
http://media.hotair.com/wp/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/dtg.jpg
Update: Similar results from South Carolina courtesy of Monmouth (http://www.monmouth.edu/uploadedFiles/Content/University/about-monmouth/centers-of-distinction/monmouth-university-polling-institute/MUPoll/MUP90_SCGOP.pdf): Trump 30, Carson 15, Bush 9. Ted Cruz, who’s hoping/expecting SC will launch him to supremacy in the south, is plodding along at five percent. How come? Because Trump’s monopolizing his voters, for now.
Ideology – Trump wins very conservative (33%), somewhat conservative (31%) and moderate to liberal (23%) voters. Carson (21%) and Cruz (10%) take 2nd and 3rd place among very conservative voters. Carson and Bush are in the next tier among both somewhat conservative voters (13% and 11%, respectively) and moderate to liberal voters (10% and 14%, respectively).
Evangelicals – Nearly two-thirds of the GOP primary electorate in South Carolina call themselves evangelical Christians. This group backs Trump (33%) over Carson (18%).
Tea Party – Tea Party supporters back Trump (33%), with Carson (19%) and Cruz (9%) trailing. Non-Tea Party voters also back Trump (28%), followed by Bush (13%) and Carson (12%).
Donald Trump: The very conservative, evangelical, tea-party choice.
Oh my: Trump 35, Kasich 11, Fiorina 10 in New Hampshire — with strength head-to-head,Update: Leads by 15 in South Carolina tooPOSTED AT 11:21 AM ON AUGUST 25, 2015 BY ALLAHPUNDIT
...
As noted in the excerpt, he’s not doing it with just one subgroup either. Head to head, among evangelicals, he defeats Rubio, Bush, and Walker. Only Ben Carson tops him. Among people who say they’re more concerned with nominating someone who has the best chance of beating the Democrat in the general election — i.e. electability — than someone who’s the most conservative on the issues, Trump crushes Rubio, Bush, Walker, and Carson head to head, winning all four match-ups by double digits and beating Bush by an amazing 26 points. That’s a brutal reality for Jeb given that New Hampshire is his must-win early state; if voters there think Donald Trump is vastly more electable than he is, presumably because of the baggage that comes with Bush’s surname, then he’s done. On the other hand, Trump also wins all four match-ups among voters who say they’re more concerned with nominating the person who’s most conservative on the issues, an implausible result given Trump’s many ideological heresies. He beats Rubio in that metric by 16 points head to head(!), which can only be explained by their differences on immigration, I think. Either immigration is weighing very heavily on New Hampshire primary voters or voters are mistakenly assuming that Trump is a staunch conservative on policy issues across the board simply because he’s loudly hawkish about the border. Either way, if you’re a Trump skeptic, the fact that he’s beating Scott Walker among people who want the most conservative candidate should give you hope that Trump’s lead here is ephemeral. The attack ads educating people about his liberal record will come fast and furious this fall. So, in fact, will the attack ads pointing out all the outre things he’s said in the past, which will affect perceptions of his electability. The money question about Trumpmania is how much of it is based on fully informed populism, i.e. people who love Trump warts and all, and how much is based on low information, i.e. people who’ve heard nothing more about him than “The Apprentice” and the fact that he’s been pounding the table about closing the border. We’ll know in a few months.
Exit question via Gallup (http://www.gallup.com/poll/184814/hispanics-frown-trump-not-rest-gop-field.aspx): You really think the donor class is going to be dragged into battle against Hillary (or Biden) behind a guy with numbers like this?
http://media.hotair.com/wp/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/dtg.jpg
Update: Similar results from South Carolina courtesy of Monmouth (http://www.monmouth.edu/uploadedFiles/Content/University/about-monmouth/centers-of-distinction/monmouth-university-polling-institute/MUPoll/MUP90_SCGOP.pdf): Trump 30, Carson 15, Bush 9. Ted Cruz, who’s hoping/expecting SC will launch him to supremacy in the south, is plodding along at five percent. How come? Because Trump’s monopolizing his voters, for now.
Ideology – Trump wins very conservative (33%), somewhat conservative (31%) and moderate to liberal (23%) voters. Carson (21%) and Cruz (10%) take 2nd and 3rd place among very conservative voters. Carson and Bush are in the next tier among both somewhat conservative voters (13% and 11%, respectively) and moderate to liberal voters (10% and 14%, respectively).
Evangelicals – Nearly two-thirds of the GOP primary electorate in South Carolina call themselves evangelical Christians. This group backs Trump (33%) over Carson (18%).
Tea Party – Tea Party supporters back Trump (33%), with Carson (19%) and Cruz (9%) trailing. Non-Tea Party voters also back Trump (28%), followed by Bush (13%) and Carson (12%).
Donald Trump: The very conservative, evangelical, tea-party choice.