Accumulative Polling

[jimnyc]

I've never been a huge fan of polls and have always felt that the sample sizes were insufficient. When I did use them I prefer the accumulative polls. And even then, I would rather have more. The only poll that counts is the one on election day, but the best you can get until then is tons of them put into one.

---

Polling Data


<tbody>
Poll
Date
Trump
Carson
Cruz
Walker
Fiorina
Bush
Rubio
Huckabee
Paul
Kasich
Christie
Jindal
Santorum
Perry
Graham
Spread


RCP Average
8/7 - 8/30
23.3
18.3
8.0
7.5
6.8
6.5
4.8
4.3
3.5
2.8
2.0
1.5
1.3
1.0
0.5
Trump +5.0


Monmouth (http://www.monmouth.edu/assets/0/32212254770/32212254991/32212254992/32212254994/32212254995/30064771087/85775b52-ec99-4ad3-bbee-14826bdf86e5.pdf)
8/27 - 8/30
23
23
9
7
10
5
4
2
3
4
1
1
2
1
0
Tie


Loras College (http://loras.edu/About-Loras/News-Events/News/2015/Trump-and-Carson-on-Top,-Loras-College-Poll-Finds.aspx)
8/24 - 8/27
25
18
7
6
5
10
4
4
2
3
2
1
1
1
0
Trump +7


DM Register (http://www.gannett-cdn.com/LDSN/desmoines/PDF/iowa-poll-study-2125-methodology-aug31-update.pdf)
8/23 - 8/26
23
18
8
8
5
6
6
4
4
2
2
2
1
1
0
Trump +5


CNN/ORC (http://www.cnn.com/2015/08/12/politics/cnn-orc-poll-iowa-republican-caucus-data/index.html)
8/7 - 8/11
22
14
8
9
7
5
5
7
5
2
3
2
1
1
2
Trump +8

</tbody>
All Iowa Republican Presidential Caucus Polling Data (http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/ia/iowa_republican_presidential_caucus-3194.html#polls)

[jimnyc]

The last one was for Iowa alone, my bad - here's the one for National...

Polling Data
<tbody>
Poll
Date
Trump
Carson
Bush
Cruz
Rubio
Walker
Fiorina
Kasich
Huckabee
Christie
Paul
Santorum
Perry
Jindal
Pataki
Spread


RCP Average
8/11 - 8/30
26.5
12.0
9.5
7.0
6.5
6.3
5.8
5.0
4.5
3.0
3.0
1.3
1.3
0.3
0.3
Trump +14.5


PPP (D) (http://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/2016/PPP_National_Poll_Aug_28-30_Rep.pdf)
8/28 - 8/30
29
15
9
6
7
5
8
6
5
2
1
2
1
0
0
Trump +14


Quinnipiac (http://www.quinnipiac.edu/images/polling/us/us08272015_Ueg38d.pdf)
8/20 - 8/25
28
12
7
7
7
6
5
5
3
4
2
1
1
0
0
Trump +16


CNN/ORC (http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2015/images/08/17/rel8a.-.gop.2016.pdf)
8/13 - 8/16
24
9
13
5
8
8
5
5
4
3
6
1
2
0
0
Trump +11


FOX News (http://www.foxnews.com/politics/interactive/2015/08/14/fox-news-poll-sanders-gains-on-clinton/)
8/11 - 8/13
25
12
9
10
4
6
5
4
6
3
3
1
1
1
1
Trump +13

</tbody>
All 2016 Republican Presidential Nomination Polling Data (http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/2016_republican_presidential_nomination-3823.html#polls)

[jimnyc]

Here is the latest for the Dems, Nationally....

Polling Data
<tbody>
Poll
Date
Sample
Clinton
Sanders
Biden
O'Malley
Webb
Chafee
Spread


RCP Average
8/11 - 8/30
--
49.2
25.0
14.0
2.0
1.6
0.6
Clinton +24.2


PPP (D) (http://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/2016/PPP_National_Poll_Aug_28-30_Dem.pdf)
8/28 - 8/30
545 LV
55
20
--
4
3
1
Clinton +35


Quinnipiac (http://www.quinnipiac.edu/images/polling/us/us08272015_Ueg38d.pdf)
8/20 - 8/25
647 RV
45
22
18
1
1
0
Clinton +23


Rasmussen Reports (http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2016/sanders_gains_big_as_clinton_falls)
8/23 - 8/24
536 LV
50
24
--
2
2
2
Clinton +26


CNN/ORC (http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2015/images/08/18/rel8b.-.democrats.2016.pdf)
8/13 - 8/16
358 RV
47
29
14
2
1
0
Clinton +18


FOX News (http://www.foxnews.com/politics/interactive/2015/08/14/fox-news-poll-sanders-gains-on-clinton/)
8/11 - 8/13
401 LV
49
30
10
1
1
0
Clinton +19

</tbody>
All 2016 Democratic Presidential Nomination Polling Data (http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/2016_democratic_presidential_nomination-3824.html#polls)

[jimnyc]

New Hampshire - GOP

Polling Data
<tbody>
Poll
Date
Trump
Kasich
Bush
Fiorina
Walker
Carson
Cruz
Christie
Paul
Rubio
Huckabee
Graham
Perry
Santorum
Pataki
Spread


RCP Average
7/31 - 8/24
28.3
12.7
9.0
7.0
6.3
6.0
5.7
5.3
5.0
3.7
1.3
1.3
1.0
1.0
1.0
Trump +15.6


PPP (D) (http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2015/PPP_Release_NH_82515.pdf)
8/21 - 8/24
35
11
7
10
7
6
4
4
3
4
0
1
2
1
1
Trump +24


Boston Herald (http://www.bostonherald.com/sites/default/files/blog_posts/FPU-BH-0811-Rep.pdf)
8/7 - 8/10
18
12
13
9
4
4
10
3
6
4
3
1
1
0
1
Trump +5


Gravis (http://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/2016/Gravis_Marketing_July_31-August_3_New_Hampshire_Poll1.pdf)
7/31 - 8/3
32
15
7
2
8
8
3
9
6
3
1
2
0
2
1
Trump +17

</tbody>
All New Hampshire Republican Presidential Primary Polling Data (http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/nh/new_hampshire_republican_presidential_primary-3350.html#polls)

New Hampshire - Dems


Polling Data
<tbody>
Poll
Date
Sample
Sanders
Clinton
Biden
Webb
O'Malley
Chafee
Spread


RCP Average
7/31 - 8/24
--
41.7
38.3
7.5
3.0
2.0
0.7
Sanders +3.4


PPP (D) (http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2015/PPP_Release_NH_82515.pdf)
8/21 - 8/24
370 RV
42
35
--
6
4
2
Sanders +7


Boston Herald/FPU (http://www.bostonherald.com/sites/default/files/media/2015/08/12/FPU-BH-0811-Dem.pdf)
8/7 - 8/10
442 LV
44
37
9
1
0
0
Sanders +7


Gravis Marketing (http://www1.realclearpolitics.com/docs/2016/Gravis_Marketing_July_31-August_3_New_Hampshire_Poll1.pdf)
7/31 - 8/3
475 RV
39
43
6
2
2
0
Clinton +4

</tbody>
All New Hampshire 2016 Democratic Primary Polling Data (http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/nh/new_hampshire_democratic_presidential_primary-3351.html#polls)

[jimnyc]

South Carolina - GOP

Polling Data
<tbody>
Poll
Date
Trump
Carson
Bush
Walker
Huckabee
Graham
Rubio
Cruz
Fiorina
Kasich
Christie
Paul
Perry
Jindal
Spread


RCP Average
7/29 - 8/23
31.7
12.0
11.3
6.7
6.0
5.3
4.7
4.0
3.3
3.0
3.0
2.0
1.0
0.7
Trump +19.7


Monmouth (http://www.monmouth.edu/uploadedFiles/Content/University/about-monmouth/centers-of-distinction/monmouth-university-polling-institute/MUPoll/MUP90_SCGOP.pdf)
8/20 - 8/23
30
15
9
4
3
4
6
5
6
3
2
3
0
0
Trump +15


Augusta Chronicle (http://chronicle.augusta.com/news/government/elections/2015-08-05/poll-has-trump-big-lead-south-carolina?v=1438798818)
8/3 - 8/3
31
10
14
6
9
7
2
4
2
3
4
2
0
1
Trump +17


Gravis Marketing (http://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/2016/Gravis_July_29-30_South_Carolina_Poll_1.pdf)
7/29 - 7/30
34
11
11
10
6
5
6
3
2
3
3
1
3
1
Trump +23

</tbody>
All South Carolina Republican Presidential Primary Polling Data (http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/sc/south_carolina_republican_presidential_primary-4151.html#polls)

South Carolina - Dems


Polling Data
<tbody>
Poll
Date
Sample
Clinton
Biden
Sanders
O'Malley
Webb
Chafee
Spread


RCP Average
5/31 - 8/3
--
67.0
10.5
9.0
2.0
1.5
1.0
Clinton +56.5


Gravis Marketing (http://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/2016/Gravis_July_29-30_South_Carolina_Poll.pdf)
7/31 - 8/3
209 RV
78
6
8
1
1
1
Clinton +70


Morning Consult (http://morningconsult.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/06/150502_crosstabs_mc_NH_v1_AD.pdf)
5/31 - 6/8
309 RV
56
15
10
3
2
1
Clinton +41

</tbody>
All South Carolina Democratic Presidential Primary Polling Data (http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/sc/south_carolina_democratic_presidential_primary-4167.html#polls)

[Christie Brinkley]

Shame Rand Paul has not got more in the polls.

[Gunny]

Why look at polling? Polls always reflect what the pollsters want. I realize dunbasses believe in them, but I also think we're a tad bit smarter than that.

[jimnyc]

Shame Rand Paul has not got more in the polls.

He never had a chance, just as his Dad never had a chance. Both a little "out there" at times. But he DOES have some good ideas I like.

[Perianne]

The last one was for Iowa alone, my bad - here's the one for National...


To some extent, the Iowa one is the one that matter most.

[Christie Brinkley]

He never had a chance, just as his Dad never had a chance. Both a little "out there" at times. But he DOES have some good ideas I like.
Him and his dad I think are good men, maybe too good for the world of politics. He needs to trumpify and out trump trump (I don't think Trump is for real because he changed his mind on immigration as well as abortion as well as the fact he supported Hillary in the past).

[jimnyc]

Why look at polling? Polls always reflect what the pollsters want. I realize dunbasses believe in them, but I also think we're a tad bit smarter than that.

Because how else is one supposed to get an idea one which way folks are leaning? Of course pollsters can do as they wish once they get the data, but the raw data is believable. I think asking thousands of folks from around the nation, and then having another company repeat the process with a different set of folks, and then another company doing similarly... you can get a better idea that way. One company with results is one thing, but if you have an accumulative effort, and they are all within a certain range of error, then you get a better idea. Certainly not perfect, and trust me I know that, but a better idea is all.

[Gunny]

Him and his dad I think are good men, maybe too good for the world of politics. He needs to trumpify and out trump trump (I don't think Trump is for real because he changed his mind on immigration as well as abortion as well as the fact he supported Hillary in the past).

The problem is he's goes out into left field. Ron Paul did the same. He did good bucking up to Trump, but he did it the wrong way, IMO.

[jimnyc]

To some extent, the Iowa one is the one that matter most.

To an extent - but I believe that Ron Paul won Iowa in 2012, and ended up with jack squat by the time the primaries were over. I think Santorum actually was leading in many of them back then too. But agreed, it's still very important!!!

[Christie Brinkley]

The problem is he's goes out into left field. Ron Paul did the same. He did good bucking up to Trump, but he did it the wrong way, IMO.
He tried to attract the young with being anti NSA but it looks like that has back fired.

[jimnyc]

Him and his dad I think are good men, maybe too good for the world of politics. He needs to trumpify and out trump trump (I don't think Trump is for real because he changed his mind on immigration as well as abortion as well as the fact he supported Hillary in the past).

No doubt I think they are good men, and would like what they think is best for our nation.

[jimnyc]

The problem is he's goes out into left field. Ron Paul did the same. He did good bucking up to Trump, but he did it the wrong way, IMO.

Both of the Pauls would have had decent shots if they stayed out of left field, no doubt.

[fj1200]

Why look at polling? Polls always reflect what the pollsters want. I realize dunbasses believe in them, but I also think we're a tad bit smarter than that.

In the end, pollsters want to be correct.