In WV, Trump's Incompetence Likely To Cost Him 10 Delegates

[tailfins]

http://www.redstate.com/moe_lane/2016/04/16/donald-trump-west-virginia-delegates-ceiling/


14 in WY .... 34 in CO ... 10 in WV ... drip drip drip ... Trump leaks delegates


Donald Trump has a GENEROUS ceiling of 19 out of 22 statewide delegates in West Virginia.

VERY generous. The likely ceiling is lower.





So what I did here was export the list of the at-large delegates to a spreadsheet, isolated out the Donald Trump supporters, sorted them by town, then sorted them by county, and then finally sorted them by Congressional District. I then removed names and street addresses – because that’s what civilized people do – and came up with the table below of Trump delegate candidates:


As we found out today (http://www.politico.com/story/2016/04/trump-likely-to-win-west-virginia-but-lose-delegates-222036), there is a cap imposed by the West Virginia Republican party: no more than two statewide delegates can come from any one county, or seven from any one Congressional District (the twenty-second delegate is apparently the top vote-getter,period (http://www.wvgazettemail.com/news/20160416/states-republican-primary-a-complicated-system)). According to these rules, and assuming that Donald Trump’s delegates took the top thirty one positions in the final vote (they won’t)… the maximum that Trump can glean would be six in CD-01, five in CD-02, and seven in CD-03.


If I was going to guess, I’d say five additional at minimum, fifteen max, final number around 23-25 delegates (out of 34 total) officially committed to Trump*.

[Elessar]

http://www.redstate.com/moe_lane/2016/04/16/donald-trump-west-virginia-delegates-ceiling/


14 in WY .... 34 in CO ... 10 in WV ... drip drip drip ... Trump leaks delegates

I am not sure the one from WV is accurate; thus, I doubt the accuracy of the writer.
Not mentioned in the WV count are Eastern Panhandle counties: Mineral, Hampshire,
Grant, Jefferson, Berkely, Hardy.

[tailfins]

I am not sure the one from WV is accurate; thus, I doubt the accuracy of the writer.
Not mentioned in the WV count are Eastern Panhandle counties: Mineral, Hampshire,
Grant, Jefferson, Berkely, Hardy.

Can you find any delegates that filed from those counties?

However, here's where Trump gets 11 delegates disqualified


As we found out today (http://www.politico.com/story/2016/04/trump-likely-to-win-west-virginia-but-lose-delegates-222036), there is a cap imposed by the West Virginia Republican party: no more than two statewide delegates can come from any one county, or seven from any one Congressional District


In CD-02 he loses eleven duplicates from Kanawha County.

[Elessar]

Can you find any delegates that filed from those counties?

However, here's where Trump gets 11 delegates disqualified

I do not vote there any longer, so I am not sure.

My one time college roommate is a state representative out
of Mineral County.

But - piece of trivia: Years ago, WV was largely a Democratic Party
State; however, they were pretty much Conservative Democrats,
which is a rarity these days.

So the recent shift to Republican seems pretty logical.

[Gunny]

I do not vote there any longer, so I am not sure.

My one time college roommate is a state representative out
of Mineral County.

But - piece of trivia: Years ago, WV was largely a Democratic Party
State; however, they were pretty much Conservative Democrats,
which is a rarity these days.

So the recent shift to Republican seems pretty logical.

They still are conservative there as far as I know. One of the biggest mistakes people make is thinking that the big cities represent the entire state. I lived in IL which is mostly rural conservative. But Chicago gets to make the votes. Lived in the desert in CA with a bunch of redneck boonies, But LA and SF get to control the vote.

Lived in Texas when the dems redistricted the vote,

Someone needs to get down with a set of rules that applies to everyone. But then isn't that asking too much? The Federal gov't can't do its own job because its so busy sticking its nose into crap that's none of their business. Deflection by decree.