jimnyc
07-15-2016, 01:51 PM
After much speculation and apparent indecision, Donald Trump has finally announced that Indiana Gov. Mike Pence is his running mate. Despite some complaints from the left and the right, someone like Pence is probably the best choice for Trump.
First, let’s look at the state of the race to try to figure out what Trump needs. It’s obvious that the email scandal and FBI Director James Comey’s comments on Hillary Clinton’s judgment have taken a toll on her poll numbers. Her lead in the RCP average has fallen from 6.8 points in late June to just 2.7 points today. The state polling also shows tightening; even relatively Clinton-friendly polls like the NBC/WSJ/Marist surveys show movement toward Trump since their last iteration in March/April.
Perhaps most disturbingly for Clinton, majorities of voters believe she did something illegal and disagree with the FBI’s decision not to recommend prosecution.
So why isn’t Trump leading? For one thing, almost all of the variance in the polls has come from Clinton’s declining level of support, with Trump picking up very little support. In other words, in late June, 46 percent supported Clinton, while just 39 percent supported Trump. Today, those numbers are 43 percent for Clinton, with 40 percent for Trump.
It’s fairly obvious from this that, while voters don’t find Clinton to be honest and trustworthy, they are also concerned about Trump’s volatility. In a way, both candidates have to convince voters that they can be trusted with the keys to the Oval Office, although in very different ways.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2016/07/15/pence_and_the_state_of_the_race_131204.html
First, let’s look at the state of the race to try to figure out what Trump needs. It’s obvious that the email scandal and FBI Director James Comey’s comments on Hillary Clinton’s judgment have taken a toll on her poll numbers. Her lead in the RCP average has fallen from 6.8 points in late June to just 2.7 points today. The state polling also shows tightening; even relatively Clinton-friendly polls like the NBC/WSJ/Marist surveys show movement toward Trump since their last iteration in March/April.
Perhaps most disturbingly for Clinton, majorities of voters believe she did something illegal and disagree with the FBI’s decision not to recommend prosecution.
So why isn’t Trump leading? For one thing, almost all of the variance in the polls has come from Clinton’s declining level of support, with Trump picking up very little support. In other words, in late June, 46 percent supported Clinton, while just 39 percent supported Trump. Today, those numbers are 43 percent for Clinton, with 40 percent for Trump.
It’s fairly obvious from this that, while voters don’t find Clinton to be honest and trustworthy, they are also concerned about Trump’s volatility. In a way, both candidates have to convince voters that they can be trusted with the keys to the Oval Office, although in very different ways.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2016/07/15/pence_and_the_state_of_the_race_131204.html