jimnyc
10-14-2016, 11:44 AM
RealClear Politics: Don't Discount Outlier LA Times Poll
A new report highlights the risks in looking too much into the Los Angeles Times poll, but also gives it some legitimacy in this unpredictable 2016 election season.
RealClear Politics senior elections analyst Sean Trende argues that the L.A. Times poll — which has mostly shown that Republican Donald Trump leads Democrat Hillary Clinton in the race for president, while most other national polls say the opposite — should not be written off as fiction.
The survey was called the RAND poll for the 2012 election.
"The RAND poll showed some pretty freakish results, popping out results as many as six points at variance to the RCP Average," Trende wrote, referencing the 2012 poll results.
"In the end, though, the RAND poll basically got it right. The national polls (though not so much the state polls) were off in 2012. During the closing month of the campaign, they showed, on average, a 0.3 point Romney lead. The RAND poll, by contrast, showed a 3.8 point Obama lead — which was almost exactly correct."
http://www.newsmax.com/Headline/RealClear-Politics-LA-Times-Poll-Discount/2016/10/14/id/753419/
A new report highlights the risks in looking too much into the Los Angeles Times poll, but also gives it some legitimacy in this unpredictable 2016 election season.
RealClear Politics senior elections analyst Sean Trende argues that the L.A. Times poll — which has mostly shown that Republican Donald Trump leads Democrat Hillary Clinton in the race for president, while most other national polls say the opposite — should not be written off as fiction.
The survey was called the RAND poll for the 2012 election.
"The RAND poll showed some pretty freakish results, popping out results as many as six points at variance to the RCP Average," Trende wrote, referencing the 2012 poll results.
"In the end, though, the RAND poll basically got it right. The national polls (though not so much the state polls) were off in 2012. During the closing month of the campaign, they showed, on average, a 0.3 point Romney lead. The RAND poll, by contrast, showed a 3.8 point Obama lead — which was almost exactly correct."
http://www.newsmax.com/Headline/RealClear-Politics-LA-Times-Poll-Discount/2016/10/14/id/753419/