red states rule
11-12-2016, 03:33 AM
This will be hard for folks like Mike and Gabby to swallow
2016: The Revenge Of The White Working Class Voter, And Where Millions Of Obama Supporters Flipped For Trump
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The shift from 2012 : Trump makes huge gains in rural America. Clinton makes modest gains in the metros, Utah
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Dems need to grapple with the fact that they lost this election because voters who supported Obama in 2012 voted Trump.
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Turnout can always be better. But turnout in FL/PA was very strong--higher than '12--and Clinton lost because Obama voters flipped.
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Was there a hidden Donald Trump vote? I thought so on Election Night given the historic wins Trump had in Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania. He lost Minnesota by 1.4 points to Clinton, which is astounding. But then there’s the other side of the equation: Clinton’s people just stayed home. And they did. Granted, it’s not really a criticism of the Trump campaign. He seems to have energized the people who failed to show up for Mitt Romney in 2012. Another thing that adds to the narrative that Clinton’s people stayed home is the fact that Trump got 58 percent of the white vote this cycle; Romney got 59 percent. So, was there a shy Trumpkin vote? Yes, but it was too small to impact the election, which would’ve been interesting, though what happened is much more satisfying to Republicans: white working class voters (who have trended GOP) had their revenge, Clinton couldn’t match Obama’s turnout levels in key counties since his own supporters turned on him, along with thousands of other Democrats crossing party lines (https://www.apnews.com/4277c96ac27443fd932da8e52e9ea0ce/For-many-supporters,-Trump-is-a-thing-called-hope?utm_campaign=SocialFlow&utm_source=Twitter&utm_medium=AP) to vote for their champion: Donald Trump.
It’s not sexism. It’s not misogyny. It’s that Hillary Clinton was a terrible candidate and the Democratic Party turned their backs on rural America. That was the fatal mistake—and there’s really no excuse. The Democratic National Committee’s 2014 autopsy, where the GOP trounced them in the midterms, clearly stated that they needed to reconnect with white working class voters, though their attention was to the South (http://townhall.com/tipsheet/mattvespa/2015/02/23/2014-dnc-autopsy-yeah-we-need-to-reclaim-white-southern-voters-n1961217). In reality, it was pretty much every rural space of the country. They opted to try and reengage the Obama coalition for a third time and failed. An example of where Democratic turnout was depressed was in Michigan’s Wayne County, which encompasses Detroit. It’s the largest county in the state. In 2012, Obama got 595,253 votes, winning it by 73 percent. In 2016, Clinton still won the county, but by a slimmer 66 percent margin and only 517,022 votes. Here, and CNN’s John King made the same observation, is where you can say that Democrats stayed home. And that drop is what’s going to cost her the state.
http://townhall.com/tipsheet/mattvespa/2016/11/11/2016-the-revenge-white-working-class-voter-where-millions-of-obama-supporters-also-voted-for-trump-n2244205
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2016: The Revenge Of The White Working Class Voter, And Where Millions Of Obama Supporters Flipped For Trump
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The shift from 2012 : Trump makes huge gains in rural America. Clinton makes modest gains in the metros, Utah
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Dems need to grapple with the fact that they lost this election because voters who supported Obama in 2012 voted Trump.
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Turnout can always be better. But turnout in FL/PA was very strong--higher than '12--and Clinton lost because Obama voters flipped.
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Was there a hidden Donald Trump vote? I thought so on Election Night given the historic wins Trump had in Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania. He lost Minnesota by 1.4 points to Clinton, which is astounding. But then there’s the other side of the equation: Clinton’s people just stayed home. And they did. Granted, it’s not really a criticism of the Trump campaign. He seems to have energized the people who failed to show up for Mitt Romney in 2012. Another thing that adds to the narrative that Clinton’s people stayed home is the fact that Trump got 58 percent of the white vote this cycle; Romney got 59 percent. So, was there a shy Trumpkin vote? Yes, but it was too small to impact the election, which would’ve been interesting, though what happened is much more satisfying to Republicans: white working class voters (who have trended GOP) had their revenge, Clinton couldn’t match Obama’s turnout levels in key counties since his own supporters turned on him, along with thousands of other Democrats crossing party lines (https://www.apnews.com/4277c96ac27443fd932da8e52e9ea0ce/For-many-supporters,-Trump-is-a-thing-called-hope?utm_campaign=SocialFlow&utm_source=Twitter&utm_medium=AP) to vote for their champion: Donald Trump.
It’s not sexism. It’s not misogyny. It’s that Hillary Clinton was a terrible candidate and the Democratic Party turned their backs on rural America. That was the fatal mistake—and there’s really no excuse. The Democratic National Committee’s 2014 autopsy, where the GOP trounced them in the midterms, clearly stated that they needed to reconnect with white working class voters, though their attention was to the South (http://townhall.com/tipsheet/mattvespa/2015/02/23/2014-dnc-autopsy-yeah-we-need-to-reclaim-white-southern-voters-n1961217). In reality, it was pretty much every rural space of the country. They opted to try and reengage the Obama coalition for a third time and failed. An example of where Democratic turnout was depressed was in Michigan’s Wayne County, which encompasses Detroit. It’s the largest county in the state. In 2012, Obama got 595,253 votes, winning it by 73 percent. In 2016, Clinton still won the county, but by a slimmer 66 percent margin and only 517,022 votes. Here, and CNN’s John King made the same observation, is where you can say that Democrats stayed home. And that drop is what’s going to cost her the state.
http://townhall.com/tipsheet/mattvespa/2016/11/11/2016-the-revenge-white-working-class-voter-where-millions-of-obama-supporters-also-voted-for-trump-n2244205
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