Tancredo Campaign Update

[nevadamedic]

HOLD ON TO YOUR SEATS……WE’RE BLASTING OFF!!!!

Dear Don,

We have just stunned the Washington political establishment and the “mainstream” media by coming in fourth today in the Iowa Straw Poll! It was a very tight race - only 626 votes between second and fourth place.

First of all, thank you…….thank you for helping make this great day possible. I am so proud to be carrying the standard for our immigration reform cause, and I am just as proud to have you on our team.

Now, the entire Republican presidential campaign takes on a new look. What even the most liberal, pro-open borders media commentators are going to have to acknowledge now is that our no-amnesty, secure-the-borders message is the message that excites grassroots conservatives.

And this result also means that our campaign, this campaign that you and I are in together, is one they must now cover and report on seriously!

Today’s results will probably result in the field narrowing, and some candidates will probably drop out. But my friend, we are moving forward!

I really hope you will help us kick off this exciting new chapter in our campaign today with a special contribution. We used our funds to great effect this month in Iowa, as the results today prove, but now we need to get ready to take our momentum from Iowa into states like New Hampshire and South Carolina. That’s why your gift today would be such a great boost to us!

As a Christian, I believe in miracles. And I think today we may have seen a real miracle take place here in Iowa. Thank you, again, for your patriotism, for your commitment to our shared cause, and for your friendship.

Tom Tancredo

P.S. You should have seen the look on some of the media pundits faces here in Ames tonight when the results were announced! But I guarantee you that they will be looking at our campaign a lot differently from now on!

Way to go Tom!!!!!!! :salute:

[5stringJeff]

Romney was the only top tier candidate in the top 5. Huckabee, Brownback, and Tancredo - three "second-tier," very conservative candidates, were all very close. I think if anything, the results show that the GOP wants a real conservative representing the party.

[Pale Rider]

Romney was the only top tier candidate in the top 5. Huckabee, Brownback, and Tancredo - three "second-tier," very conservative candidates, were all very close. I think if anything, the results show that the GOP wants a real conservative representing the party.

ITA. And I think as time goes on, you'll see Romney's popularity fail. His "we should give illegals free emergency medical and education benifits" will sink him.

[5stringJeff]

ITA. And I think as time goes on, you'll see Romney's popularity fail. His "we should give illegals free emergency medical and education benifits" will sink him.

No kidding. The only thing we should give illegals is a swift kick in the ass right back across the border from whence they came.

[Kathianne]

Huckabee may well be the 'sleeper.' I've seen some that said he won at least two of the debates, yet he has little money and gets nearly zero coverage. Considering what Romney spent, Huckabee's showing was remarkable.

[82Marine89]

Huckabee may well be the 'sleeper.' I've seen some that said he won at least two of the debates, yet he has little money and gets nearly zero coverage. Considering what Romney spent, Huckabee's showing was remarkable.

He gets little coverage because the liberal media doesn't want a conservative to win the Republican nomination. What they can't control are the bloggers and that kills them. Bottom line is if we want a conservative in office, we need to try harder to make our voices heard.

[LiberalNation]

No kidding. The only thing we should give illegals is a swift kick in the ass right back across the border from whence they came.
Would you deny a child life saving medical care, let them die on a hospitital floor because of their "legal" status. If that ain't inhumane and going against the very oath medical professional swear to uphold then I don't know what is.

Deport them fine, tighten boarder security fine, but denying emergancy medical care is not.

[Kathianne]

Huckabee may well be the 'sleeper.' I've seen some that said he won at least two of the debates, yet he has little money and gets nearly zero coverage. Considering what Romney spent, Huckabee's showing was remarkable.

Said better, links at site

http://www.captainsquartersblog.com/mt/archives/011198.php


August 12, 2007
Ames Poll Produces Winner -- And It May Not Be Romney

The Ames straw poll in Iowa has concluded in a racous day of policy and showmanship, and in the end the man who spent the most money in Iowa won the most votes. However, the real winner may be the man who spent nothing but time and effort in hopes of breaking out of the second tier:


Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney emerged on top at Iowa GOP’s straw poll Saturday in Ames.

The win boosted the former Massachusetts governor’s standing as the party’s frontrunner in Iowa, although attendance at this first show of Iowa campaign strength appeared to fall short of expectations. ...

Former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee had said his campaign’s future depended on a strong showing in Ames. He finished in second place, with 2,587 votes or 18.1 percent. Sen. Sam Brownback of Kansas placed third with 2,192 votes, 15.3 percent after campaigning aggressively to be the choice of the Iowa GOP’s influential social conservatives.

“Obviously this was an incredible day and victory for us,” Huckabee said. “What happened for us today was stunning.”

The relevance of the normally critical Ames poll waned this year when Republican frontrunners pulled out of contention earlier this summer. Rudy Giuliani, who has led all national polling since January, and John McCain both declined to participate in the Ames poll. The other top-tier candidate, Fred Thompson, has not officially entered the race and so therefore did not appear in Ames, either.

That left Romney alone among top-tier contenders at the caucus today. Romney has spent millions in Iowa trying to garner momentum in the Republican primaries, and his efforts have given him a lead among Iowans thus far. Romney was widely expected to win today's caucuses, and a falter in Ames would have been very embarrassing indeed. Romney did not disappoint, winning 31% of the reduced number of attendees this year.

This chart from Truth Laid Bear shows the vote breakouts:

ames2007.png

Mike Huckabee showed surprising strength in Iowa. Despite not buying any advertising at all in the state, he managed to capture more than half of Romney's total simply by his appearance at Ames. Huckabee was the most likely second-place finisher in Iowa anyway, simply because of the roster of the people who took the time to appear -- but his strength, and the relative strength of the nonentities that have been Sam Brownback and Tom Tancredo in this primary campaign show a real problem for Romney in Iowa.

Romney had the opportunity to bury the rest of the field in Iowa. Not only did all three people ahead of him in the national polls bow out for various reasons, but Romney has owned the airwaves in Iowa. Given the low national polling numbers for the GOP second tier -- they score roughly 22% combined, if No Opinion gets included -- Romney should have at least won somewhere upwards of 40% in Ames, and probably a majority.

Take a look at the latest Gallup poll for context. Romney gets 9%, while the other frontrunners combine for 69% of the respondents. Romney, with all of his campaigning and spending in Iowa, only takes a third of what the troika of Rudy, John, and Fred left on the table in Ames. Huckabee, at 2% in Gallup, takes almost a quarter of that 69%, and Brownback and Tancredo -- without any national traction at all -- take just short of 40% of those leftovers combined in Iowa. Given Romney's stronger national credentials, only going from 9% national to 32% in Iowa without Rudy, John, and Fred in the race seems like a weak endorsement.

And this weakness is even more pronounced when looking at the Iowa polling prior to Ames. Romney led in Iowa in May among likely caucus goers, primarily based on his aggressive campaigning. He got 30% then, compared to John McCain's 18%, Rudy at 17%, and 12% uncommitted. Of that 47%, Romney picked up all of two percentage points in Ames. Huckabee, at 4% in May, picked up another 14 points today in Ames. Brownback picked up 10%.

Huckabee proved that he can build momentum and support. If he started spending money in Iowa, he could make that top tier even more crowded than before. Romney barely met expectations in Ames, but Huckabee has provided a surprise.

UPDATE: Iowa Voice has a good roundup. He says that the low turnout has prompted speculation that the Republicans are in trouble in Iowa, Brian thinks the heat kept a lot of people at home and in air conditioning. Not having the three top national candidates in the event took a lot of the meaning and enthusiasm from the event, too. I'd call the turnout meaningless.

[82Marine89]

Would you deny a child life saving medical care, let them die on a hospitital (sic) floor because of their "legal" status. If that ain't inhumane and going against the very oath medical professional swear to uphold then I don't know what is.

Deport them fine, tighten boarder security fine, but denying emergancy(sic) medical care is not.

Kind of like abortion?

[LiberalNation]

When did I ever say abortion was humane.

[5stringJeff]

Would you deny a child life saving medical care, let them die on a hospitital floor because of their "legal" status. If that ain't inhumane and going against the very oath medical professional swear to uphold then I don't know what is.

Deport them fine, tighten boarder security fine, but denying emergancy medical care is not.

I'd do enough to stabilize the child's condition, then send them home.

[truthmatters]

4

[LiberalNation]

Hard question. The childs a citizen so can't be deported. You either hafta let the parents stay or put the child in social services if we are deporting the parents.

[Black Lance]

When did I ever say abortion was humane.

LN, since you have previously conceded that the fetus is indeed a child, how do you rectify abortion with the Hippocratic oath?

[LiberalNation]

I believe it's a human child, I doubt the doctors performing abortions do. That is how they ractify it I would guess.

[Black Lance]

I would agree with providing them emergency medical care, followed by deporting them, but free education? Not a chance. They're not our citizens, let their own country educate them for free.

[5stringJeff]

What do you do if the Child was a born American and their parents are illegal?

In the long term, I would change the law to say that children born of illegals are not American citizens.

In the short term, I would allow the parents to stay until the child turns 18, then deport them.

[Pale Rider]

What do you do if the Child was a born American and their parents are illegal?

The anchor baby law needs to be and will be changed. If a baby is born to illegal aliens, then the baby is every bit as illegal as it's parents.

[nevadamedic]

What do you do if the Child was a born American and their parents are illegal?

That whole anchor baby law needs to go PERIOD.

[waterrescuedude2000]

Hard question. The childs a citizen so can't be deported. You either hafta let the parents stay or put the child in social services if we are deporting the parents.

Well I say that just becuase the kid is a citizen doesnt mean he cant live in another country with his family. And as far as Medic said I agree the anchor baby laws need to be gotten rid of. Thats just another reward for illegall immigration.

[waterrescuedude2000]

That whole anchor baby law needs to go PERIOD.


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