Can China Win the Trade War in One Move?

[Taco Junkie]

I'm not knowledgeable about foreign trade and while I don't disagree with the idea of tariffs, I think they were way too large. A smaller percentage would have aided the U.S. manufacturers and leveled the playing field a bit while filling our tax coffers without starting a trade war. Came across this article on another forum and found it interesting:

http://theweek.com/articles/765276/how-china-win-trade-war-1-move

[Gunny]

I'm not knowledgeable about foreign trade and while I don't disagree with the idea of tariffs, I think they were way too large. A smaller percentage would have aided the U.S. manufacturers and leveled the playing field a bit while filling our tax coffers without starting a trade war. Came across this article on another forum and found it interesting:

http://theweek.com/articles/765276/how-china-win-trade-war-1-moveI don't know that China can win a trade war with the US at all, but we'll pay for winning.

We can win a FINANCIAL war in one move. Default on our loan.

[Nonnie]

I don't know that China can win a trade war with the US at all, but we'll pay for winning.

We can win a FINANCIAL war in one move. Default on our loan.

That will effect America's credit rating and then it's dealings with other countries. Who would then trade with a country that defaults on it's loans.

[LongTermGuy]

The Trade war started a long time ago.....since no one had the balls to end it and bring back Fairness...We were being screwed....In a war..you fight for freedom and fairness...NOT doing so you die a slow death and get shit on daily....Fight or die....There is always a cost for Freedom and fairness....

[FakeNewsSux]

When dealing with economies the size of the US and China, "winning a trade war' in one simple move is simply impossible (with the possible exception of a nuclear exchange). Let me try to simplify the author's argument in the article Taco Junkie posted. The government in Beijing could have the US and the rest of the world on its knees simply by cutting off supply of usable rare earth metal products. First off, if the leaders of that thugocracy knew this was possible, they would have already done it. But secondly, and more importantly, they know they can't. Even the person putting forth this argument admits that China doesn't hold a monopoly on these materials. He states that the mining, refining and processing operations are environmentally damaging and put workers health and safety at risk to the point where western countries opt for direct purchase from China rather than accept production risks. If these supplies were suddenly cut off and our government deemed them essential for national security purposes, trust me, local production would begin immediately. If you have any doubts about this, go ask the people in Hanford, Washington.

[High_Plains_Drifter]

The US has a .3% tariff on cars imported from China.
China has a 25% tariff on cars imported from the US.

It goes that way with MANY things.

We might need some minerals from China, I can't say. I've never heard that before and am skeptical of the veracity of the OP article. However, China is in dire need of our FOOD. They can't feed their BILLIONS of people. They need our grain and corn, and they need it a lot worse than we may or may not need some minerals. They also need our lumber, bad, so does Japan.

We hold so many Trump cards, pun intended, it's not even funny. They are ALREADY "punishing" America. They don't have any real room left to have a trade war with... WE DO. If we simply put the SAME tariffs on other countries that they have on us, leveling the playing field, we could cause their economies to crash.

[Gunny]

That will effect America's credit rating and then it's dealings with other countries. Who would then trade with a country that defaults on it's loans.We would.

[Gunny]

The US has a .3% tariff on cars imported from China.
China has a 25% tariff on cars imported from the US.

It goes that way with MANY things.

We might need some minerals from China, I can't say. I've never heard that before and am skeptical of the veracity of the OP article. However, China is in dire need of our FOOD. They can't feed their BILLIONS of people. They need our grain and corn, and they need it a lot worse than we may or may not need some minerals. They also need our lumber, bad, so does Japan.

We hold so many Trump cards, pun intended, it's not even funny. They are ALREADY "punishing" America. They don't have any real room left to have a trade war with... WE DO. If we simply put the SAME tariffs on other countries that they have on us, leveling the playing field, we could cause their economies to crash.Nope. They can just trade for food offering their goods at more favorable prices to the countries we piss off with our tariffs.

Although, I haven't seen a lot of demand for Chinese cars :laugh:

[LongTermGuy]

REAKING -- CHINA BLINKS: Trump’s Hardline on Trade Forces China’s Xi to lower tariff

[Tyr-Ziu Saxnot]

When dealing with economies the size of the US and China, "winning a trade war' in one simple move is simply impossible (with the possible exception of a nuclear exchange). Let me try to simplify the author's argument in the article Taco Junkie posted. The government in Beijing could have the US and the rest of the world on its knees simply by cutting off supply of usable rare earth metal products. First off, if the leaders of that thugocracy knew this was possible, they would have already done it. But secondly, and more importantly, they know they can't. Even the person putting forth this argument admits that China doesn't hold a monopoly on these materials. He states that the mining, refining and processing operations are environmentally damaging and put workers health and safety at risk to the point where western countries opt for direct purchase from China rather than accept production risks. If these supplies were suddenly cut off and our government deemed them essential for national security purposes, trust me, local production would begin immediately. If you have any doubts about this, go ask the people in Hanford, Washington.

UNDER WHAT ADMINISTRATIONS WAS CHINA ALLOWED TO CORNER THE MARKET ON THOSE RARE EARTH MINERALS???
China holds a monopoly on certain important rare earth minerals in its control of foreign mines and factories that are now currently processing such minerals, that is my understanding.
As to how easily that could be circumvented by new mines and new processing, who knows.
Much of that treasure lies in its supreme importance in modern technologies,that to this world is infinitely craved, and sought at any costs, IMHO. -Tyr

[High_Plains_Drifter]

Nope.
We'll see.

[Gunny]

We'll see.You keep missing my point because you're stuck this "US vs China/us vs them". "payback" mentality. Who you or anyone else declares "winner" doesn't mean jack shit to in a pissing contest that ends up with me (the US consumer) paying more for the same shit.

Everyone keeps ignoring the elephant in the room ... US companies that cannot compete in a fair market. That's THEIR problem. Not our government's and not mine. They can run down to the bank and take out a loan like everyone else has to. I don't see any tax dollars remodeling my house.

[High_Plains_Drifter]

You keep missing my point because you're stuck this "US vs China/us vs them". "payback" mentality. Who you or anyone else declares "winner" doesn't mean jack shit to in a pissing contest that ends up with me (the US consumer) paying more for the same shit.

Everyone keeps ignoring the elephant in the room ... US companies that cannot compete in a fair market. That's THEIR problem. Not our government's and not mine. They can run down to the bank and take out a loan like everyone else has to. I don't see any tax dollars remodeling my house.
I get your point... your point is that you believe the trade imbalance and heavy tariffs on American exports to other countries while we have none on theirs and the billions of dollars we lose is somehow a GOOD thing, and you want it to stay that way, because you might have to spend $1.75 for your next tooth brush that's made in America as opposed to $1.63 for the one made in china, and no amount of regulations that have been rolled back or tax breaks given to American companies by president Trump is going to help manufacturing in America compete with overseas slave labor, despite the huge cost of international and overseas shipping.

Yeah I get your point, I just don't agree with any of it.

[Gunny]

I get your point... your point is that the trade imbalance and heavy tariffs on American exports to other countries and the billions of dollars we lose is somehow a GOOD thing, and you want it to stay that way, because you might have to spend $1.75 for your next tooth brush that's made in America as opposed to $1.43 for the one made in china, and no amount of regulations that have been rolled back or tax breaks given to American companies by president Trump is going to help manufacturing in America compete with overseas slave labor, despite the huge cost of shipping.

Yeah I get your point, I just don't agree with any of it.Nope. Your "us or them" mentality doesn't work with my thinking. I don't think it's a good thing. For the corporations. There's no "WE" involved. "WE" aren't part of the corporate world. If I was, I sure as Hell wouldn't want the US government regulating MY business. As a business, the US government is a massive failure.

So it isn't about "thinking anything is a good thing" it's about capitalism and fair competition. And having to pay for somebody's idea of a band-aid to try and prop up crippled industries. That isn't about Trump or China. It's about competition and winning. Fairly. When you can't compete on the field or in the ring, you sit on the bench or go home. Same principle, different analogy.

Where in business is there an "us" unless you own or are invested in the business? Buzz words make people believe it's about "us vs them" -- "the US vs the world". Who allowed the trade imbalance to begin with? Who couldn't compete to begin with? Sure was okay when the imbalance was the other way and we got push everyone around. Government involvement PERIOD has done nothing but create false markets and false values.

FYI, I when given a choice, I buy American products IF the quality meets or exceeds the competition even if I have to pay a little more. Do I however want to have to pay for someone to try and fix a 70 years old problem in one fell swoop and cause an international market shock in the process? Nope. Not a penny.

[High_Plains_Drifter]

Nope. Your "us or them" mentality doesn't work with my thinking. I don't think it's a good thing. For the corporations. There's no "WE" involved. "WE" aren't part of the corporate world. If I was, I sure as Hell wouldn't want the US government regulating MY business. As a business, the US government is a massive failure.

So it isn't about "thinking anything is a good thing" it's about capitalism and fair competition. And having to pay for somebody's idea of a band-aid to try and prop up crippled industries. That isn't about Trump or China. It's about competition and winning. Fairly. When you can't compete on the field or in the ring, you sit on the bench or go home. Same principle, different analogy.

Where in business is there an "us" unless you own or are invested in the business? Buzz words make people believe it's about "us vs them" -- "the US vs the world". Who allowed the trade imbalance to begin with? Who couldn't compete to begin with? Sure was okay when the imbalance was the other way and we got push everyone around. Government involvement PERIOD has done nothing but create false markets and false values.

FYI, I when given a choice, I buy American products IF the quality meets or exceeds the competition even if I have to pay a little more. Do I however want to have to pay for someone to try and fix a 70 years old problem in one fell swoop and cause an international market shock in the process? Nope. Not a penny.
To Trump, it is "us vs them." America loses money, we have been losing money, and he wants to put an end to it. Our own government put so many restrictive regulations on our own manufacturing that they drove our industry overseas... fine... but Trump has cut back HUNDREDS of those regulations AND given them tax breaks, and businesses are moving BACK to America, because once again they see that they can make their goods here CHEAPER than having to SHIP PARTS OVERSEAS just to have something assembled and then SHIPPED BACK HERE. That appears to be what you are missing. The point, manufacturers are seeing that they can be PROFITABLE HERE once again, so if countries that have been SCREWING us with trade want a trade war, America is in a good position to have that war... BETTER than they are.

[Gunny]

To Trump, it is "us vs them." America loses money, we have been losing money, and he wants to put an end to it. Our own government put so many restrictive regulations on our own manufacturing that they drove our industry overseas... fine... but Trump has cut back HUNDREDS of those regulations AND given them tax breaks, and businesses are moving BACK to America, because once again they see that they can make their goods here CHEAPER than having to SHIP PARTS OVERSEAS just to have something assembled and then SHIPPED BACK HERE. That appears to be what you are missing.I agree with most of it. So fix our government restrictions. Then fix our spoiled labor. Both would go a long way in leveling the playing field.

I'm not missing anything. If I owned an industry I'd move its ass out of this country rather than go out of business too. So now punish me, the business owner, for doing what is in the best interest of my business because you can't compete. That is exactly what the US government is doing. They should be fixing themselves and punishing themselves for being stupid.

It's not our government's place to prop up industry. That is a socialist notion and complete opposite of capitalism.

[High_Plains_Drifter]

It's not our government's place to prop up industry. That is a socialist notion and complete opposite of capitalism.
Well... see... this is where you lose me... Trump has been HELPING American businesses, not punishing them, and I don't get how eliminating crippling regulations and sky high taxes from obama is "socialism." Where do you get that? How is simply making it profitable to do operate in America again by being REASONABLE with the regulations and taxes, "propping them up?"