jimnyc
10-26-2018, 12:46 PM
A few takes on the polls and the mid-terms. It IS true that our chains were yanked a bit by pollsters in 2016, so who the hell knows where things stand right now. :dunno:
And then another non-PC person in Rush gives his take...
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Trump's midterm campaign strategy may be exactly what Republicans need to hold Congress
President Trump is making history with his energetic push to elect Republicans to the House and Senate in the Nov. 6 midterm elections.
The unprecedented intensity of the president’s campaigning across the country seems increasingly likely to enable the GOP to gain seats in the Senate and keep Republicans in the majority in the House of Representatives – despite the view of many experts that Democrats are almost certain to capture control of the House.
Keep in mind that if the predictions by these same experts had been correct in 2016, President Hillary Clinton would be in the Oval Office today.
Typically, the party that controls the White House loses seats in Congress in the midterms. But as President Trump proved with his upset victory over Clinton two years ago, he draws tremendous support from millions of voters – and he is calling on his supporters now to vote for Republican candidates for Congress and state offices.
The president is making it clear to voters that if they want him to succeed in doing what they elected him to accomplish he needs a Republican Congress to support him. If Democrats gain control of one or both houses of Congress they will devote all their energy to investigating and obstructing the Trump administration at every turn, and may seek to impeach the president.
Republicans are gaining the support of voters because of several factors.
First the strong economy, rising wages, low unemployment rate, and the Trump tax cut are fulfilling the president’s promise to Make America Great Again. Voters are benefitting directly with more money in their pockets – and they are giving Republicans the credit.
Second, many voters are concerned with the mob tactics, the disregard of the concept of innocent until proven guilty, and vicious character assassination that Democrats deployed against President Trump’s extraordinarily qualified Supreme Court nominee, Brett Kavanaugh. Thankfully, Kavanaugh was confirmed by the Senate, but voters understand that if Democrats had controlled the Senate they would have rejected the Kavanaugh nomination for purely partisan reasons.
Third, many voters are disturbed by the would-be invasion of America by a caravan of illegal immigrants. They understand if we allowed everyone who wants to immigrate to America from around the world into our country, potentially hundreds of millions of people would take advantage of the opening. No nation can absorb that many immigrants all at once or can vet them all to ensure that dangerous criminals are not among the new arrivals.
Rest - https://www.foxnews.com/opinion/trump-is-increasing-chances-republicans-will-keep-majorities-in-congress
The Blue Wave Was a Lie, But It Could Be Even Worse for Democrats
RUSH: Okay. Let’s get some of the election analysis. The midterms are 13 days away, two weeks ago from yesterday. Tom Bevan co-founded Real Clear Politics, and it’s a website that many political scientists, political operatives, political experts cite constantly. What Real Clear Politics does, among many other things, is average all of the so-called responsible polls out there into something called a Real Clear Politics average of polls. And political experts from across the aisle cite Real Clear Politics and trust it as an unassailable source.
So Tom Bevan, co-founder of this place, was on Fox Business Network today. He said that, if there was a blue wave, that it would be cresting at this point in time, meaning it’d be building, we’d be seeing the top of it here. And Tom Bevan said in all the polling data that they have in Real Clear Politics and are analyzing, it’s not. There is no cresting. There is no blue wave. If a wave was coming, it would be building, he says, and it isn’t.
But, on the other hand, the generic ballot is holding. Meaning the Democrats are not running away with it. They still have a… Depending on three- to five-point lead in the generic ballot, but they’re not expanding it. There’s no growth. There are no Democrats pulling away, as would happen with a blue wave. Trump’s job approval is rising. Democrats are in the advantage, Bevan says, but they’re not building on anything.
There’s no wave that’s gonna wash everything away and leave only Democrats standing. He says the House races are really tight. They are race-by-race real battles. “Hand-to-hand combat” is how he described it. He forecasts that Democrats might win the House, that they do have an advantage right now because they have a range of 70 competitive races. And the range of pickup as they look at polling data now is anywhere from Democrats picking up 10 to 41 seats.
They’re projecting a Democrat pickup of 25-1/2 seats, which gives ’em a slight advantage. Democrats need to pick up 23. That’s the magic number. Anything above that, Democrats have an advantage in the House. The range of the pickup, according to the polling data, Real Clear Politics takes a look at anywhere from 10 to 41 seats, they project a pickup of 25 seats, 25 and a half; so two and a half seats more than they need.
But with even a tiny shift in just a couple of races, the GOP can hold the House. So all of this synthesized and stripped away to its bear essence, there isn’t a blue wave, there isn’t this blue wave that’s going to sweep every Republican away and leave only Democrats standing. The generic ballot is not moving in Democrats’ favor. Trump’s approval numbers are rising. Over on the Senate side, Bevan and Real Clear Politics project the Republicans are gonna gain two seats. Two weeks ago, they were predicting no change.
The Republicans wouldn’t gain or lose any. Two weeks before that the Democrats were going to pick up seats in the Senate. So in the past month, we’ve gone from Democrats picking up a couple to Republicans gaining a couple. And that’s the momentum and that’s the trend. And he made the point that it’s a whole new world with Trump. Gender gap, education gap, the rural-urban gap, all of these things don’t mean nearly as much as they have in the past because of Trump neutralizing much of it.
And Trump is the great unknown as these rallies continue. Now, another retired historian and political analyst sent an email that I received (let’s see) just this morning. I’m not gonna identify who is is. Doesn’t matter. I don’t know you’ve heard of them. But I just want to share with you some of the things I get. Some of it is, by the way, legitimate. Some of it is obviously to try to influence me into promoting whatever it is that’s sent. I have to be very, very careful about this. I’m just… I’m gonna relay this to you dispassionately.
This guy, who is an historian, who has studied American politics and congressional races along the lines of Michael Barone, just not as well known. As he looks at things, he sees an absolute red wave, and he did not believe this until last night. He’s been seeing trends the past two weeks, but he has been reluctant to convert any of these trends into an actual prediction until now. He says the numbers he’s looking at from Nevada are exceptional. In Minnesota, Keith Ellison is cratering the whole Democrat Party.
Rest - https://www.rushlimbaugh.com/daily/2018/10/24/the-blue-wave-was-a-lie-but-it-could-be-even-worse-for-democrats/
And then another non-PC person in Rush gives his take...
---
Trump's midterm campaign strategy may be exactly what Republicans need to hold Congress
President Trump is making history with his energetic push to elect Republicans to the House and Senate in the Nov. 6 midterm elections.
The unprecedented intensity of the president’s campaigning across the country seems increasingly likely to enable the GOP to gain seats in the Senate and keep Republicans in the majority in the House of Representatives – despite the view of many experts that Democrats are almost certain to capture control of the House.
Keep in mind that if the predictions by these same experts had been correct in 2016, President Hillary Clinton would be in the Oval Office today.
Typically, the party that controls the White House loses seats in Congress in the midterms. But as President Trump proved with his upset victory over Clinton two years ago, he draws tremendous support from millions of voters – and he is calling on his supporters now to vote for Republican candidates for Congress and state offices.
The president is making it clear to voters that if they want him to succeed in doing what they elected him to accomplish he needs a Republican Congress to support him. If Democrats gain control of one or both houses of Congress they will devote all their energy to investigating and obstructing the Trump administration at every turn, and may seek to impeach the president.
Republicans are gaining the support of voters because of several factors.
First the strong economy, rising wages, low unemployment rate, and the Trump tax cut are fulfilling the president’s promise to Make America Great Again. Voters are benefitting directly with more money in their pockets – and they are giving Republicans the credit.
Second, many voters are concerned with the mob tactics, the disregard of the concept of innocent until proven guilty, and vicious character assassination that Democrats deployed against President Trump’s extraordinarily qualified Supreme Court nominee, Brett Kavanaugh. Thankfully, Kavanaugh was confirmed by the Senate, but voters understand that if Democrats had controlled the Senate they would have rejected the Kavanaugh nomination for purely partisan reasons.
Third, many voters are disturbed by the would-be invasion of America by a caravan of illegal immigrants. They understand if we allowed everyone who wants to immigrate to America from around the world into our country, potentially hundreds of millions of people would take advantage of the opening. No nation can absorb that many immigrants all at once or can vet them all to ensure that dangerous criminals are not among the new arrivals.
Rest - https://www.foxnews.com/opinion/trump-is-increasing-chances-republicans-will-keep-majorities-in-congress
The Blue Wave Was a Lie, But It Could Be Even Worse for Democrats
RUSH: Okay. Let’s get some of the election analysis. The midterms are 13 days away, two weeks ago from yesterday. Tom Bevan co-founded Real Clear Politics, and it’s a website that many political scientists, political operatives, political experts cite constantly. What Real Clear Politics does, among many other things, is average all of the so-called responsible polls out there into something called a Real Clear Politics average of polls. And political experts from across the aisle cite Real Clear Politics and trust it as an unassailable source.
So Tom Bevan, co-founder of this place, was on Fox Business Network today. He said that, if there was a blue wave, that it would be cresting at this point in time, meaning it’d be building, we’d be seeing the top of it here. And Tom Bevan said in all the polling data that they have in Real Clear Politics and are analyzing, it’s not. There is no cresting. There is no blue wave. If a wave was coming, it would be building, he says, and it isn’t.
But, on the other hand, the generic ballot is holding. Meaning the Democrats are not running away with it. They still have a… Depending on three- to five-point lead in the generic ballot, but they’re not expanding it. There’s no growth. There are no Democrats pulling away, as would happen with a blue wave. Trump’s job approval is rising. Democrats are in the advantage, Bevan says, but they’re not building on anything.
There’s no wave that’s gonna wash everything away and leave only Democrats standing. He says the House races are really tight. They are race-by-race real battles. “Hand-to-hand combat” is how he described it. He forecasts that Democrats might win the House, that they do have an advantage right now because they have a range of 70 competitive races. And the range of pickup as they look at polling data now is anywhere from Democrats picking up 10 to 41 seats.
They’re projecting a Democrat pickup of 25-1/2 seats, which gives ’em a slight advantage. Democrats need to pick up 23. That’s the magic number. Anything above that, Democrats have an advantage in the House. The range of the pickup, according to the polling data, Real Clear Politics takes a look at anywhere from 10 to 41 seats, they project a pickup of 25 seats, 25 and a half; so two and a half seats more than they need.
But with even a tiny shift in just a couple of races, the GOP can hold the House. So all of this synthesized and stripped away to its bear essence, there isn’t a blue wave, there isn’t this blue wave that’s going to sweep every Republican away and leave only Democrats standing. The generic ballot is not moving in Democrats’ favor. Trump’s approval numbers are rising. Over on the Senate side, Bevan and Real Clear Politics project the Republicans are gonna gain two seats. Two weeks ago, they were predicting no change.
The Republicans wouldn’t gain or lose any. Two weeks before that the Democrats were going to pick up seats in the Senate. So in the past month, we’ve gone from Democrats picking up a couple to Republicans gaining a couple. And that’s the momentum and that’s the trend. And he made the point that it’s a whole new world with Trump. Gender gap, education gap, the rural-urban gap, all of these things don’t mean nearly as much as they have in the past because of Trump neutralizing much of it.
And Trump is the great unknown as these rallies continue. Now, another retired historian and political analyst sent an email that I received (let’s see) just this morning. I’m not gonna identify who is is. Doesn’t matter. I don’t know you’ve heard of them. But I just want to share with you some of the things I get. Some of it is, by the way, legitimate. Some of it is obviously to try to influence me into promoting whatever it is that’s sent. I have to be very, very careful about this. I’m just… I’m gonna relay this to you dispassionately.
This guy, who is an historian, who has studied American politics and congressional races along the lines of Michael Barone, just not as well known. As he looks at things, he sees an absolute red wave, and he did not believe this until last night. He’s been seeing trends the past two weeks, but he has been reluctant to convert any of these trends into an actual prediction until now. He says the numbers he’s looking at from Nevada are exceptional. In Minnesota, Keith Ellison is cratering the whole Democrat Party.
Rest - https://www.rushlimbaugh.com/daily/2018/10/24/the-blue-wave-was-a-lie-but-it-could-be-even-worse-for-democrats/