PDA

View Full Version : "He's Fired!" "No, I Resigned!"



Kathianne
09-11-2019, 02:22 PM
Disagreements, we'll soon know more or less about over what:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-09-11/trump-rouhani-meeting-odds-improve-after-john-bolton-s-exit



Politics
Trump Discussed Easing Iran Sanctions, Prompting Bolton Pushback
By Jennifer Jacobs, Saleha Mohsin, Jenny Leonard, and David Wainer
September 11, 2019, 1:00 AM PDT Updated on September 11, 2019, 12:08 PM PDT

President Donald Trump discussed easing sanctions on Iran to help secure a meeting with Iranian President Hassan Rouhani later this month, prompting then-National Security Advisor John Bolton to argue forcefully against such a step, according to three people familiar with the matter.


After an Oval Office meeting on Monday when the idea came up, Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin voiced his support for the move as a way to restart negotiations with Iran, some of the people said. Later in the day, Trump decided to oust Bolton, whose departure was announced Tuesday.


The White House has started preparations for Trump to meet with Rouhani this month in New York on the sidelines of the annual United Nations General Assembly the week of Sept. 23, according to the people. It’s far from clear if the Iranians would agree to talks while tough American sanctions remain in place.


Trump told reporters at the White House that he’s “not looking at anything” with regard to a meeting with Rouhani, but indicated he may consider easing sanctions on Tehran to make it happen. “We’ll see what happens,” he said after he was asked about backing off the sanctions, adding that he does not desire “regime change” in Iran.


One scenario, shared by two of the people, would be that Trump joins a meeting between Rouhani and French President Emmanuel Macron. The people said they had no indication it would actually happen.


Brent oil prices fell more than 2% to $61.05 a barrel on the news.


While Trump has made no secret of his willingness to sit down with Iranian leaders -- a move that would break more than four decades of U.S. policy -- there are considerable political hurdles Trump would have to navigate if he wants it to happen. Nevertheless, Bolton’s ouster on Tuesday improves the odds of a meeting.


Bolton built his career on a hard-line approach toward Iran, long calling for preemptive strikes on the country to destroy its nuclear program. His sudden dismissal immediately fueled speculation -- and worry in some quarters -- that the U.S. “maximum pressure” campaign might ease in a bid to lure Iranian leaders to the negotiating table.


Easing any sanctions without major concessions from Iran would undercut the pressure campaign that not only Bolton, but also Secretary of State Michael Pompeo and Trump have said is the only effective way to make Iran change its behavior.

America’s European allies, frustrated by Trump’s withdrawal from the 2015 nuclear accord and stymied by U.S. sanctions in their bid to trade with Iran, have been desperate to find a way to broker a deal between Washington and Tehran. Macron even invited Iran’s foreign minister, Javad Zarif, to talks on the sidelines of the Group of Seven summit in France last month and won verbal support from Trump for a sanctions reprieve. Then nothing happened.


“Bolton made sure to block any and all avenues for diplomacy w/ Iran, including a plan being brokered by Macron,” Suzanne DiMaggio, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, said on Twitter. “The French are offering Trump a facing-saving way out of a mess of his creation. He should grab it.”


Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s government, on the other hand, may have lost one of its staunchest allies with Bolton’s departure. Israeli officials, worried about legitimizing Iranian leaders, are concerned that the chances for such a meeting are increasing. Their chief fear is that U.S. sanctions could be scaled back and pressure on the regime eased, an Israeli official said, speaking on condition of anonymity.





But Iranian leaders, at least publicly, have spurned the suggestion of a Trump-Rouhani encounter, which would be strongly opposed by more conservative factions in Iran, especially if there’s no let up in sanctions essentially blocking Iranian oil sales. Mnuchin on Tuesday indicated sanctions will remain, saying, “We are maintaining the maximum pressure campaign.”


Pompeo, who last year set out 12 demands that he said Iran must fulfill in order to become a “normal country,” could still try to prevent Trump from softening his stance. Pompeo has, however, recently taken a more moderate tone in lockstep with the president, saying in a briefing Tuesday that Trump is prepared to talk without preconditions.


One thing all sides agree on is that tensions have soared in recent months, with a spate of attacks on oil tankers in and around the Persian Gulf that have been blamed on Iran. The Islamic Republic shot down an American drone it said was over its territorial waters, prompting Trump to consider military strikes that he said he called off at the last minute.


QuickTake: Why the U.S. and Iran Are at Loggerheads, Again


Charles Kupchan, a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, said that at the very least, Bolton’s exit reduces the chances of a military escalation.


UN Meeting
“It’s too hard to say if a meeting will happen given the question of whether it’s politically palatable for both leaders,” said Kupchan. “But the likelihood of a meeting has gone up because one of its main detractors is now out of a job.”


Top Iranian officials have in recent weeks sought to stamp out talk of a direct meeting between the leaders, with Zarif calling it “unimaginable” and Rouhani saying he’s not interested in a photo-op with the American president. That’s a subtle reference to America’s outreach with North Korea, which despite three meetings between Trump and Kim Jong Un hasn’t resulted in any breakthrough.


Senator Lindsay Graham, the South Carolina Republican on the Foreign Relations Committee and a close Trump ally, on Wednesday gave the president tepid support for a meeting: “I don’t mind a meeting as long as there’s a reason to meet,” he said.


Oman Talks


For Rouhani, sitting down with Trump would be an immense political gamble with his nation’s economy weighed down by crippling American sanctions and no guarantee of an agreement that would allow Tehran to again legally sell oil. Mindful of the political risk of talks with the U.S., Iranians have long favored quiet discussions instead. The 2015 nuclear deal was preceded by years of back channel diplomacy among lower-level officials in Oman.

Nevertheless, Rouhani adviser Hesameddin Ashena tweeted on Tuesday that Bolton’s departure is a “decisive sign of the failure of the U.S. maximum pressure strategy in the face of the constructive resistance from Iran.”


Trump, with his 2020 re-election campaign already underway, would also have to step out of his political comfort zone. Isolating and weakening the Islamic Republic is one foreign policy issue Republican lawmakers and conservative national security experts broadly agree upon. It’s also a rallying cry for conservative Jewish supporters of Israel and key Trump backers, such as casino magnate Sheldon Adelson.


Obama Handshake
Regardless of whether a direct meeting takes place, diplomatic efforts to address Iran-U.S. tensions will be at the forefront of the UN gathering. Impromptu chats and sideline diplomacy are a hallmark of the annual gathering.


In 2015, a backstage handshake between President Barack Obama and Zarif generated headlines across the Middle East -- and accusations by Iranian hardliners that Zarif was “unrevolutionary.” At this year’s assembly, Macron as well Japan’s Shinzo Abe plan to meet Rouhani as they try to break the impasse.


Bolton’s departure also leaves Pompeo, who had clashed with Bolton over several issues, in the unchallenged role as Trump’s closest aide on foreign policy. While Bolton often made his differences with the president clear, Pompeo has spent more than two and a half years in Trump’s orbit without letting much daylight come between himself and the president.


Asked on Tuesday if he could foresee a meeting between Trump and Rouhani during the UN meeting, Pompeo responded: “Sure,” adding, “The president’s made very clear, he is prepared to meet with no preconditions.”

Kathianne
09-11-2019, 02:52 PM
Yep, gonna learn more:

https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2019/09/great-deal-taliban/597820/?utm_source=feed


A Terrific Deal—For the Taliban
The president should have to answer for the Afghanistan mess in the 2020 election.


6:00 AM ET


Kori Schake
Contributing editor at The Atlantic and deputy director-general of the IISS

...

Even without a functional process for making policy, the president received plenty of indications that bringing the Taliban to the U.S., on the anniversary of the 9/11 terrorist attacks, was problematic. Newly fired National Security Adviser John Bolton refused to go on TV to defend the president’s idea, and was suspected of leaking the contents of the negotiations (the text of which he was only entrusted to read, not possess).

Under the proposed agreement with the Taliban, the U.S. would have immediately begun to reduce coalition-troop numbers to 8,600 and withdrawn completely by the end of 2020, closed five U.S. military bases, released thousands of Taliban prisoners in Afghan-government custody, and left the governance of Afghanistan to future negotiations among Afghans. The country’s name would have reverted to the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan, which it had been termed under Taliban rule. Afghans would have perceived this reversion as the U.S. surrendering their country into Taliban hands, and they would have been correct in that perception.

It’s astonishing how little the Trump administration was willing to accept in exchange for an end to the conflict. The agreement didn’t even require the Taliban to commit to a cease-fire—all it had to do was promise not to allow Afghan territory to be used as a base for terrorist operations against the U.S. It merits emphasizing the “against the U.S.” part of the equation, because what that would have blared to America’s allies all over the world was that the U.S. is willing to separate its interests from those of Afghans and of countries that have been fighting alongside the U.S. in Afghanistan these 18 years. “America first” really does mean sacrificing the interests of others.


From the Taliban’s perspective, this was a terrific deal—America accepting defeat, striking a bargain with it that excluded the elected government of Afghanistan. The U.S. would have abandoned the prospects for a democratic Afghanistan, as well as progress in education and women’s rights, and consigned the country to Taliban rule, because the reductions in military support would almost certainly have led to that outcome. The Taliban would have had to recognize Ashraf Ghani’s government, but it could have afforded to do that because it would soon, no doubt, have overthrown it.

The president has now declared the negotiations dead. But he seems no less committed to withdrawing U.S. troops, because he subsequently tweeted that the U.S. military should not be “serving as policemen in Afghanistan.”


The president’s characterization represents a fundamental misunderstanding of the U.S. mission. Five years ago, the U.S. and its coalition partners shifted from conducting operations themselves to training, advising, and assisting Afghan forces. Afghans have been doing the most dangerous work of clearing their country of malign Taliban influence. Afghan National Security Forces have paid a devastatingly high price for it, too: More than 45,000 Afghan service members have been killed since 2014 alone. That’s about 20 killed a day. And yet they continue to volunteer.


Trump said recent Taliban attacks that killed an American serviceman precipitated his cancellation of the Camp David meeting. That seems unlikely, because the Taliban has been conducting attacks throughout the negotiations. These attacks were effective in increasing their leverage in the negotiations, because the Taliban accurately read Trump’s urgent desire to pull American troops out of Afghanistan.


...

STTAB
09-11-2019, 03:06 PM
Yet another self inflicted wound by Trump. I just don't get it.

For one thing, at that level NO ONE gets fired. It's unbecoming. Yes, everyone understands that when the President asks for your resignation, you've been fired. but given the chance to resign first.

Actually if you look back in post history I said the same thing about Comey, there's no fucking reason to rub someone's nose in it, you immature orange bastard. Just part ways and move on with your life.

Democrats are so stupid. They could have made this moron a one term President if they had ran some sane candidates on some sane policy, but they have already fucked that up.

Kathianne
09-11-2019, 03:11 PM
Yet another self inflicted wound by Trump. I just don't get it.

For one thing, at that level NO ONE gets fired. It's unbecoming. Yes, everyone understands that when the President asks for your resignation, you've been fired. but given the chance to resign first.

Actually if you look back in post history I said the same thing about Comey, there's no fucking reason to rub someone's nose in it, you immature orange bastard. Just part ways and move on with your life.

Democrats are so stupid. They could have made this moron a one term President if they had ran some sane candidates on some sane policy, but they have already fucked that up.

He's up to 9th dimensional chess, STFU! You are a never-Trump! :rolleyes:

STTAB
09-11-2019, 03:20 PM
He's up to 9th dimensional chess, STFU! You are a never-Trump! :rolleyes:


Funny, but on the serious. I've had it up to here with him. The only way he's different from other politicians is that he's a jackass in public whereas as they at least make some attempt to appear decent.

EVERY single person in this country understands that Bolton left because Trump didn't want him there any more. A public "YOU'RE FIRED!!" is both unnecessary and embarrassing to Trump, not Bolton.

Kathianne
09-11-2019, 03:24 PM
Funny, but on the serious. I've had it up to here with him. The only way he's different from other politicians is that he's a jackass in public whereas as they at least make some attempt to appear decent.

EVERY single person in this country understands that Bolton left because Trump didn't want him there any more. A public "YOU'RE FIRED!!" is both unnecessary and embarrassing to Trump, not Bolton.

You are now a traitor, damn liberal! :laugh:

Kathianne
09-12-2019, 09:27 AM
Some troubling hints or non-hints, that the President is looking to get Iran just back to where Obama had him? In alignment with France:

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2019/09/bolton-fired-disagreeing-trump-iran-report-190912080326471.html

https://www.jpost.com/Middle-East/Is-Netanyahus-annexation-payback-for-Trumps-softening-on-Iran-601480

https://www.thedailybeast.com/trump-flirts-with-dollar15-billion-bailout-for-iran-sources-say (This would shock me!)

https://www.cnn.com/2019/09/12/middleeast/bolton-iran-analysis-intl/index.html

https://www.jpost.com/Middle-East/Trump-considering-easing-sanctions-on-Iran-fired-Bolton-for-opposing-him-601404