jimnyc
05-23-2020, 02:22 PM
Wishful thinking, IMO.
I think things do get "better" throughout the summer season and then gets worse in the fall/winter. But during that process folks will be building up immunity.
But I don't see it disappearing. Just that route, and down again, and maybe up even again. A roller coaster effect until we can get appropriate medication or a vaccine. The good news is that it's not the end of the world. The bad news is that during these times, certain elderly and folks with compromised immune systems & folks with various ailments - are all more susceptible to this covid-19 disease until then.
Short of the vaccine, I think the best we can ask for is for now seeing the numbers remain at .05 or lower, in which it is. And 'cross your fingers' possibility of lowering those numbers with immunity. But 'gone' by September? I don't see it myself.
--
US could be coronavirus-free by late September, scientists say
The US could finally be free of the coronavirus in late September, and the whole world can expect to put the pandemic behind them in December, says a group of scientists in Singapore.
A mathematical model created by the Singapore University of Technology and Design is allowing the scientists to predict the future of the virus using data from already confirmed cases and deaths around the world.
Based on “a predictive-monitoring” technique, the model inputs global data which is converted to a bar chart. A curve over the top of the chart displays the trajectory of the disease. At the end of April, predictions showed that the US would be virus-free by Sept. 20 and the UK could see the end of the coronavirus by Aug. 27.
Scientists at the university cautioned that their dates were not exact and that the predictions should not lead to hasty ends of lockdowns around the world.
“Over-optimism based on some predicted end dates is dangerous because it may loosen our disciplines and controls and cause the turnaround of the virus,” they said.
https://nypost.com/2020/05/23/us-could-be-coronavirus-free-by-late-september-scientists-say/
I think things do get "better" throughout the summer season and then gets worse in the fall/winter. But during that process folks will be building up immunity.
But I don't see it disappearing. Just that route, and down again, and maybe up even again. A roller coaster effect until we can get appropriate medication or a vaccine. The good news is that it's not the end of the world. The bad news is that during these times, certain elderly and folks with compromised immune systems & folks with various ailments - are all more susceptible to this covid-19 disease until then.
Short of the vaccine, I think the best we can ask for is for now seeing the numbers remain at .05 or lower, in which it is. And 'cross your fingers' possibility of lowering those numbers with immunity. But 'gone' by September? I don't see it myself.
--
US could be coronavirus-free by late September, scientists say
The US could finally be free of the coronavirus in late September, and the whole world can expect to put the pandemic behind them in December, says a group of scientists in Singapore.
A mathematical model created by the Singapore University of Technology and Design is allowing the scientists to predict the future of the virus using data from already confirmed cases and deaths around the world.
Based on “a predictive-monitoring” technique, the model inputs global data which is converted to a bar chart. A curve over the top of the chart displays the trajectory of the disease. At the end of April, predictions showed that the US would be virus-free by Sept. 20 and the UK could see the end of the coronavirus by Aug. 27.
Scientists at the university cautioned that their dates were not exact and that the predictions should not lead to hasty ends of lockdowns around the world.
“Over-optimism based on some predicted end dates is dangerous because it may loosen our disciplines and controls and cause the turnaround of the virus,” they said.
https://nypost.com/2020/05/23/us-could-be-coronavirus-free-by-late-september-scientists-say/