jimnyc
09-04-2020, 12:54 PM
288,000 - 620,000. That's a pretty big range. But they say they are expecting now 410,000. The higher number is if states ease back on all the rules.
I really don't see the restrictions gone so quickly. Individuals out there around the nation will vary, and I'm sure many will act as if it's over or ease up on their own PPE and what not. All in all I think folks will continue to wear masks and take precautions, if they're smart.
I don't know what to think about these predictions, and I can see us honestly ending up anywhere in those numbers.
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Key coronavirus forecast predicts over 410,000 total U.S. deaths by Jan. 1: ‘The worst is yet to come’
Covid-19 has so far killed at least 186,800 people in the U.S., according to data compiled by Johns Hopkins University.
The model by IHME, whose models have previously been cited by the White House and state officials, forecasts that the death toll will double by Jan. 1.
IHME released three projections based on different assumptions: a worst-case scenario, a best-case scenario and a most likely scenario.
The U.S. will top more than 410,000 Covid-19 deaths by the end of the year as the country heads into the fall and winter, according to a new forecast from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington.
Covid-19 has already killed at least 186,800 people in the U.S., according to data compiled by Johns Hopkins University. The model by IHME, whose models have previously been cited by the White House and state officials, forecasts that the death toll will more than double by Jan. 1 and could reach as high as 620,000 if states continue to ease coronavirus restrictions.
“The worst is yet to come. I don’t think perhaps that’s a surprise, although I think there’s a natural tendency as we’re a little bit in the Northern hemisphere summer, to think maybe the epidemic is going away,” Dr. Christopher Murray, director of IHME, told reporters on a conference call Friday.
IHME released three projections based on different assumptions: a worst-case scenario, a best-case scenario and a most likely scenario. The most likely scenario estimates that Covid-19 will kill 410,450 people in the U.S. by Jan. 1. The worst-case scenario, which assumes that restrictions and mask directives will ease, projects up to 620,028 people in the U.S. will die by then and the best-case scenario, which assumes universal masking, predicts that 288,380 people in the U.S. will die from Covid-19 in 2020.
“We are facing the prospect of a deadly December, especially in Europe, Central Asia, and the United States,” Murray said in a statement. “But the science is clear and the evidence irrefutable: mask-wearing, social distancing, and limits to social gatherings are vital to helping prevent transmission of the virus.”
Rest - https://www.cnbc.com/2020/09/04/key-coronavirus-forecast-predicts-over-410000-total-us-deaths-by-jan-1.html
I really don't see the restrictions gone so quickly. Individuals out there around the nation will vary, and I'm sure many will act as if it's over or ease up on their own PPE and what not. All in all I think folks will continue to wear masks and take precautions, if they're smart.
I don't know what to think about these predictions, and I can see us honestly ending up anywhere in those numbers.
---
Key coronavirus forecast predicts over 410,000 total U.S. deaths by Jan. 1: ‘The worst is yet to come’
Covid-19 has so far killed at least 186,800 people in the U.S., according to data compiled by Johns Hopkins University.
The model by IHME, whose models have previously been cited by the White House and state officials, forecasts that the death toll will double by Jan. 1.
IHME released three projections based on different assumptions: a worst-case scenario, a best-case scenario and a most likely scenario.
The U.S. will top more than 410,000 Covid-19 deaths by the end of the year as the country heads into the fall and winter, according to a new forecast from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington.
Covid-19 has already killed at least 186,800 people in the U.S., according to data compiled by Johns Hopkins University. The model by IHME, whose models have previously been cited by the White House and state officials, forecasts that the death toll will more than double by Jan. 1 and could reach as high as 620,000 if states continue to ease coronavirus restrictions.
“The worst is yet to come. I don’t think perhaps that’s a surprise, although I think there’s a natural tendency as we’re a little bit in the Northern hemisphere summer, to think maybe the epidemic is going away,” Dr. Christopher Murray, director of IHME, told reporters on a conference call Friday.
IHME released three projections based on different assumptions: a worst-case scenario, a best-case scenario and a most likely scenario. The most likely scenario estimates that Covid-19 will kill 410,450 people in the U.S. by Jan. 1. The worst-case scenario, which assumes that restrictions and mask directives will ease, projects up to 620,028 people in the U.S. will die by then and the best-case scenario, which assumes universal masking, predicts that 288,380 people in the U.S. will die from Covid-19 in 2020.
“We are facing the prospect of a deadly December, especially in Europe, Central Asia, and the United States,” Murray said in a statement. “But the science is clear and the evidence irrefutable: mask-wearing, social distancing, and limits to social gatherings are vital to helping prevent transmission of the virus.”
Rest - https://www.cnbc.com/2020/09/04/key-coronavirus-forecast-predicts-over-410000-total-us-deaths-by-jan-1.html