tailfins
12-30-2020, 02:11 PM
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2020/12/30/some_states_may_be_well_on_their_way_to_herd_immun ity_144936.html
A very crude estimate suggests that new cases should begin trending downward when about 60% of the population has been infected. My rough estimate showed that five states are likely to have more than 60% of their populations previously infected (North Dakota, South Dakota, Iowa, Wisconsin, and Nebraska) with three others (Utah, Rhode Island, and Wyoming) approaching 60%. In each of these states, the recent trajectory for new cases is declining. States where the seven-day rolling averages are trending (https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/data/new-cases-50-states) upward tend to have a lower rate of previous infections: South Carolina (39%), Texas (36%), Massachusetts (34%), California (32%), West Virginia (29%), the District of Columbia (28%), and New York (17%).
A very crude estimate suggests that new cases should begin trending downward when about 60% of the population has been infected. My rough estimate showed that five states are likely to have more than 60% of their populations previously infected (North Dakota, South Dakota, Iowa, Wisconsin, and Nebraska) with three others (Utah, Rhode Island, and Wyoming) approaching 60%. In each of these states, the recent trajectory for new cases is declining. States where the seven-day rolling averages are trending (https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/data/new-cases-50-states) upward tend to have a lower rate of previous infections: South Carolina (39%), Texas (36%), Massachusetts (34%), California (32%), West Virginia (29%), the District of Columbia (28%), and New York (17%).