Prediction that Pollsters Got it Wrong Again

[Russ]

In 2016, pollsters were completely confident in their poll results, at least within the margin of error, but were completely shocked and mystified when Trump won the elections.

In 2020, pollsters made some minor adjustments and were once again completely confident in their poll results, at least within the margin of error, but were completely shocked and mystified when Biden only barely won the election.

In 2022, pollsters clain to have made more adjustments and are once again completely confident in their poll results, at least within the margin of error... I bet they will have underestimated the Republican vote by about 3% once again. We'll see, but if I'm right it means Oz wins PA, Bolduc wins NH, Walker wins GA, and Kelly loses in AZ. We'll see.

[Black Diamond]

Washington post is predicting 54 seats for republicans.

[SassyLady]

I heard the Independent party is now a 3rd of registered voters. We should get our own party up and running. At the polls I'm not allowed to be a JOP, (judge of opposing party) JSP (judge of same party), INSPECTOR OR MARSHALL. Because I'm an independent I can only be a clerk. Everyone else has to be Democrat or a Republican. Talk about being disenfranchised.

[Kathianne]

I heard the Independent party is now a 3rd of registered voters. We should get our own party up and running. At the polls I'm not allowed to be a JOP, (judge of opposing party) JSP (judge of same party), INSPECTOR OR MARSHALL. Because I'm an independent I can only be a clerk. Everyone else has to be Democrat or a Republican. Talk about being disenfranchised.

For a good part of our lives, since like the late 80s or so, more or less the country has been 1/3 R; 1/3 D; and 1/3 other. Other is made up of folks in middle, far to left or right. Middle folks might be libertarian-which has meant different things at different times and always different things to different people; or communists (at least until they feel/felt comfortable in D party); or greenies, etc.

Until quite recently I don't think 'middle' folks were the majority of independents, but the growing partisanship has increased the likelihood of folks no longer feeling in step with one party or another. Yet, even in the 'middle' I think differences are too large to make a coherent partisan party.

[Kathianne]

For a good part of our lives, since like the late 80s or so, more or less the country has been 1/3 R; 1/3 D; and 1/3 other. Other is made up of folks in middle, far to left or right. Middle folks might be libertarian-which has meant different things at different times and always different things to different people; or communists (at least until they feel/felt comfortable in D party); or greenies, etc.

Until quite recently I don't think 'middle' folks were the majority of independents, but the growing partisanship has increased the likelihood of folks no longer feeling in step with one party or another. Yet, even in the 'middle' I think differences are too large to make a coherent partisan party.


I forgot my main point, last I saw, Joe has managed to bring 40+% to identify as R. However Trump had near 10% of previous R identify as independent.

Until some steadier folks get elected or the system finally collapses, the swings will continue.

[Gunny]

For a good part of our lives, since like the late 80s or so, more or less the country has been 1/3 R; 1/3 D; and 1/3 other. Other is made up of folks in middle, far to left or right. Middle folks might be libertarian-which has meant different things at different times and always different things to different people; or communists (at least until they feel/felt comfortable in D party); or greenies, etc.

Until quite recently I don't think 'middle' folks were the majority of independents, but the growing partisanship has increased the likelihood of folks no longer feeling in step with one party or another. Yet, even in the 'middle' I think differences are too large to make a coherent partisan party.

Completely agree. The Republican Party is a perfect example. Like herding cats getting enough Republican'ts to agree on anything long enough to get it passed through Congress. There's the "usual 10" that will vote Dem given half a chance. Then you have the likes of Boebert and MTG out on their little fringe. Plenty of Republicans calling themselves "conservative" that obviously never looked up the word.

Then there's trying to get an officially recognized 3rd party off the ground. Want to see some bipartisanship? The Dems and Republican't's will close ranks on ANY outsiders and crush them. The DC "machine" ain't sharing any power or money.