Russia accuses Wagner chief of inciting armed rebellion

[Gunny]

No honor among thieves.

https://thehill.com/newsletters/defense-national-security/4065318-russia-accuses-wagner-chief-of-inciting-armed-rebellion/

[Gunny]

Better. Good read.

https://abcnews.go.com/International/wagner-mercenary-chief-calls-armed-rebellion-russian-military/story?id=100335756

[Black Diamond]

https://youtu.be/3YOYlgvI1uE

[Gunny]

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-66006880

[Gunny]

https://www.cnn.com/2023/06/24/europe/russia-putin-wagner-prigozhin-analysis-intl/index.html

[Gunny]

Until proven otherwise, "ruse" is going to be close to the surface in my thinking. However, if it is a ruse, it's a damned good and costly one.

Not sure what Prigozhin is trying to achieve unless it's suicide. Minus an unknown, I don't see a win from a military POV. Even if Prigozhin was to succeed in ousting the Russian military oligarchs, Putin couldn't possibly allow such a threat to his power to live. He's poisoned people for less.

I agree that nothing good is going to come of this. First question in anybody's mind has to be just exactly who is in charge in Russia? Putin? Or the oligarchs that bankroll him even though they have bankrupted his military?

Kyiv needs to come up with a way to take advantage of this without walking into a trap. I would suggest mopping up in Prigozhin's wake would not be the place to be.

[BoogyMan]

There are no good guys in this battle. Whoever wins in the end the whole area is going to be *much* less stable and I fear the stage is set for a much large conflict. Still firming up thoughts on this but I have to say the personal alarm that I am now feeling is growing.

[Black Diamond]

There are no good guys in this battle. Whoever wins in the end the whole area is going to be *much* less stable and I fear the stage is set for a much large conflict. Still firming up thoughts on this but I have to say the personal alarm that I am now feeling is growing.

Amazing this whole thing has not hit us here in some way.

[Gunny]

There are no good guys in this battle. Whoever wins in the end the whole area is going to be *much* less stable and I fear the stage is set for a much large conflict. Still firming up thoughts on this but I have to say the personal alarm that I am now feeling is growing.

One of my first thoughts: this ain't George Washington leading colonials against the King's army. Same token, they're going to kill each other? Trying to work up some concern over that, I am :laugh:

Only thing now that makes the situation unstable is the wrong nutcase getting hands on nukes. Prigozihn has already called for their use, IIRC. Otherwise, the if he lasts for 2 weeks the CIA will probably be funding him against Moscow revelarts :poke: :laugh: I joke, but it wouldn't surprise me if the dimwit spooks tried some dipshit move like that.

Unless Prigozihn's got a card up his sleeve even speculators can't see, I don't see this going anywhere. It will weaken Russia's army to deal with it, and weaken Putin's standing unless its immediately and ruthlessly put down. I don't see the Russian government completely collapsing with or without Putin anymore than ours with or without Trump. The bureaucracy will take over even if it has an empty-headed puppet at its head.

[Gunny]

Amazing this whole thing has not hit us here in some way.It has. Just not with an immediate, direct impact. It was going to regardless. Biden is giving away our military surplus without replacing it. Meantime, he and his cronies are doing exactly to our military what Putin's oligarch's have done to his.

We can survive an initial salvo, and perhaps even come out ahead. We have no manufacturing base anymore to support maintaining a momentum. Whoever does will have the edge.

[Black Diamond]

One of my first thoughts: this ain't George Washington leading colonials against the King's army. Same token, they're going to kill each other? Trying to work up some concern over that, I am :laugh:

Only thing now that makes the situation unstable is the wrong nutcase getting hands on nukes. Prigozihn has already called for their use, IIRC. Otherwise, the if he lasts for 2 weeks the CIA will probably be funding him against Moscow revelarts :poke: :laugh: I joke, but it wouldn't surprise me if the dimwit spooks tried some dipshit move like that.

Unless Prigozihn's got a card up his sleeve even speculators can't see, I don't see this going anywhere. It will weaken Russia's army to deal with it, and weaken Putin's standing unless its immediately and ruthlessly put down. I don't see the Russian government completely collapsing with or without Putin anymore than ours with or without Trump. The bureaucracy will take over even if it has an empty-headed puppet at its head.

I keep forgetting to ask this. Is Medvedev next in line if anything happens to Putin? Because his rhetoric is more extreme than Putin's. And who's to say the next leader be it Medvedev or someone else won't be more brazen ?
Gorbachev and drunk boris not withstanding, Russia has continued to be led by tsars for 500 years and the West thinks they can overturn that by overthrowing putin (indirectly)

[Black Diamond]

It has. Just not with an immediate, direct impact. It was going to regardless. Biden is giving away our military surplus without replacing it. Meantime, he and his cronies are doing exactly to our military what Putin's oligarch's have done to his.

We can survive an initial salvo, and perhaps even come out ahead. We have no manufacturing base anymore to support maintaining a momentum. Whoever does will have the edge.

https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2023/06/russia-civil-war-wagner-putin-coup/6
Gunny. Headline hyperbole ??

[Kathianne]

Turning around?

https://www.foxnews.com/live-news/putin-accuses-wagner-group-of-betrayal-as-russian-mercenaries-march-towards-moscow

[Black Diamond]

Turning around?

https://www.foxnews.com/live-news/putin-accuses-wagner-group-of-betrayal-as-russian-mercenaries-march-towards-moscow

Wow.

[SassyLady]

14330

[hjmick]

Prigozhin will fall to his death before the year is out...

[Gunny]

I keep forgetting to ask this. Is Medvedev next in line if anything happens to Putin? Because his rhetoric is more extreme than Putin's. And who's to say the next leader be it Medvedev or someone else won't be more brazen ?
Gorbachev and drunk boris not withstanding, Russia has continued to be led by tsars for 500 years and the West thinks they can overturn that by overthrowing putin (indirectly)

There's no Abraham Lincoln waiting in the wings to take power. It usually goes to the most cunning and ruthless person to ascend the ranks by whatever means necessary.

[Gunny]

Prigozhin will fall to his death before the year is out...Beat me to it:laugh: I was going to ask Black Diamond what odds they're giving in Vegas he has an accident within 6 months.

Talk about going out with a fizzle. Either he got lucky, or Putin handled this pretty masterfully. Let Prigozhin go to be poisoned later and order restored.

So much for Prigozhin's outrage and loyalty to his troops, huh? This allegedly began over the accusation his troops were attacked by Russian regulars. Now, his men will be forced to sign the contracts with the regular army and still be first on the list as cannon fodder on the front lines.

I was hoping for better theater than this :laugh:

[Tyr-Ziu Saxnot]

Beat me to it:laugh: I was going to ask Black Diamond what odds they're giving in Vegas he has an accident within 6 months.

Talk about going out with a fizzle. Either he got lucky, or Putin handled this pretty masterfully. Let Prigozhin go to be poisoned later and order restored.

So much for Prigozhin's outrage and loyalty to his troops, huh? This allegedly began over the accusation his troops were attacked by Russian regulars. Now, his men will be forced to sign the contracts with the regular army and still be first on the list as cannon fodder on the front lines.

I was hoping for better theater than this :laugh:

It is Russia, so who knows other than corruption will be in full play. Always is!--Tyr

[Gunny]

The prequel.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-66013532

[SassyLady]

14331

[Kathianne]

Now what?

https://hotair.com/jazz-shaw/2023/06/26/shoigu-reappears-but-where-is-putin-n560630


Shoigu reappears, but where is Putin?
JAZZ SHAW 9:21 AM on June 26, 2023

During the chaos in Russia this weekend, much of the nation’s leadership effectively disappeared. It remains unclear if Vladimir Putin is even in Moscow, though state spokesmen insist that he has remained “working inside the Kremlin.” The target of Yevgeny Prigozhin’s aborted coup attempt, Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu, similarly pulled a vanishing act on Saturday. But today he finally reappeared, showing up in Ukraine to perform an inspection of some of Russia’s troops, making sure that the media was there to cover his performance. The Defense Ministry published a video showing Shoigu meeting with high-ranking Russian Army officers at a Russian-controlled military outpost in eastern Ukraine. But that still leaves two mysteries to be solved. Where are Putin and Prigozhin? We haven’t heard a peep out of either of them yet. (Associated Press)

...

In matters of politics and governance, perception is often as important as reality, if not more so. If people view their government as being weak and vulnerable, challenges will inevitably arise to take advantage of that vulnerability, whether that be through military or political means. That appears to be the case with Russia at this moment.


It would be easy for people in the West to cheer for this sort of unrest in Russia, viewing the country as one of NATO’s primary adversaries. But that would be a mistake because there does not appear to be any sort of net positive coming from this situation. If Vladimir Putin remains in power over the long run (assuming he survives that long), he may slowly regain his internal credibility and control. But if he is overthrown or removed in some fashion, one of the world’s leading nuclear powers will be fully destabilized. Anyone replacing Putin in that fashion will have done so by force, and we’ve repeatedly seen how such stories have turned out in other countries, particularly the traditional banana republics of South America. The tale rarely ends well. So keep an eye on what’s happening in Russia. This crisis may not be over. In fact, it may just be beginning.

[Kathianne]

Well luckily Joe is now addressing the question of 'What now?' at a news presser, Seems for him it involves his complimenting some female on her looks, more to come. . .

[Gunny]

Well luckily Joe is now addressing the question of 'What now?' at a news presser, Seems for him it involves his complimenting some female on her looks, more to come. . .Glaringly obvious to me: Not just our irresponsible, shit-stirring MSM, but France24, BBC. DW, Sky -- all are leading with bold headlines: Putin's been shown as weak! He's going to have to do something to prove he's not!

Perhaps the international media should cut to the chase and go fire some nukes off for him?

Of course he is going to have to put on some show of force and nukes are the only force he has left to show. Even if we never mind responsibility, what about some damned common sense?

[Gunny]

Putin's being nice. All involved better find a place to hide and I wouldn't suggest Belarus. What remains to be seen is if he feels the need to prove something to NATO/the West.

https://www.foxnews.com/world/putin-says-wagner-mutineers-betrayed-russia-offers-non-participants-contract-with-ministry-defense

[Kathianne]

As clear as mud is what is apparent today:

https://hotair.com/ed-morrissey/2023/06/26/prigozhin-i-didnt-agree-to-transfer-wagner-to-kremlin-control-and-i-showed-how-weak-it-is-n560696


Prigozhin: I didn't agree to transfer Wagner to Kremlin control -- and I showed how weak it is
ED MORRISSEY 2:01 PM on June 26, 2023

For the last two days, everyone has wondered what happened to Yevgeny Prigozhin after losing his nerve on the road to Moscow. Reportedly, Vladimir Putin cut a deal via Alexander Lukashenko to end his rebellion by dropping charges against his favorite chef and allowing Prigozhin to go into exile in Belarus. In exchange, Prigozhin agreed to transfer control of his Wagner private military to the Kremlin, at least those who had not participated in the rebellion.


This supposedly all got settled in a very “masculine” conversation between Lukashenko and Prigozhin:


The conversation between Mr. Lukashenko and Mr. Prigozhin was “very difficult,” said Mr. Gigin, who this month became the director of the National Library of Belarus. “They immediately blurted out such vulgar things it would make any mother cry. The conversation was hard, and as I was told, masculine.” …


“Putin lost because he showed how weak his system is, that he can be challenged so easily,” said Pavel Slunkin, a former Belarusian diplomat and analyst at the European Council on Foreign Relations. “Prigozhin challenged, he attacked, he was so bold and then he retreated, looking like a loser. Only Lukashenko won points — first in the eyes of Putin, in the eyes of the international community as a mediator or negotiator, and as a possible guarantor of the deal.”


Now, however, it appears that Lukashenko didn’t actually settle anything. Shortly after that, however, Russian media began reporting that Putin hadn’t dropped the criminal charges against Prigozhin:


A Russian criminal case against mercenary leader Yevgeny Prigozhin for mutiny remains open and is still being investigated, the Kommersant newspaper and Russia’s three main news agencies reported on Monday, citing unidentified sources. …


Under a deal mediated by Belarusian leader Alexander Lukashenko that defused the crisis late on Saturday, the Kremlin said a criminal case against Prigozhin would be dropped and he would move to Belarus.


His fighters would return to base and would also face no legal action, the Kremlin said.


And as it turns out, the other part of the deal may not hold either. Prigozhin, who more or less disappeared over the last two days, issued an audio statement this morning strongly suggesting that he never agreed to let the Ministry of Defence take over Wagner PMC:


Mr. Prigozhin said the protest was aimed at a move by the Ministry of Defense to force his mercenaries to sign contracts with the government, which he said would have effectively halted Wagner’s activities as of July 1. The fighters, Mr. Prigozhin said, were planning to give up their heavy weapons to the Russian Army until they were attacked from behind on Friday night, killing more than two dozen Wagner soldiers — a claim for which there has been no independent evidence. …


“The purpose of the campaign was to prevent the destruction of the Wagner PMC and to bring to justice those persons who, by their unprofessional actions, made a huge number of mistakes during this process,” he said, obliquely referring to the Defense Ministry leadership.


Does that sound like a man who just agreed to hand over control of his forces to the same defense leadership? In fact, Prigozhin now suggests that Lukashenko offered to let him run Wagner from Belarus:

...

[Gunny]

As clear as mud is what is apparent today:

https://hotair.com/ed-morrissey/2023/06/26/prigozhin-i-didnt-agree-to-transfer-wagner-to-kremlin-control-and-i-showed-how-weak-it-is-n560696

Y'know, that last line actually makes sense. Why Prigozhin would buy it from one of Putin's stooges is beyond me. Being one himself, he should know better than most.

It is however a somewhat more complex situation than just signing over to the Russian army. These are mercs who if loyal to anyone, would be loyal to Prigozhin, not Russia. As I understand, many were locked up in Russia by Russia until Prigozhin got them out. Most of all, mercs work for moremoney than the military pays.

There's the fact that Wagner is also present in Syria, Mali and some other African county Putin's meddling in. All answer to Prigozhin. I don't think Putin can spare the manpower to round them all up AND fill their positions.

While I am aware Prigozhin is a World Class POS, from a military standpoint, Shoigu being in charge of the military and military operations would be unacceptable to me as well. Might as well serve under Obama or Biden :rolleyes: The fact Shoigu is inept has been rather obvious. There is no real reason Ukraine should have survived the initial invasion but military incompetence on Russia's part.

[Kathianne]

Fascinating:

https://www.wsj.com/articles/russian-media-appear-as-perplexed-as-everyone-else-over-wagner-mutiny-7f166363


WORLDRussian Media Appear as Perplexed as Everyone Else Over Wagner Mutiny
Many outlets express support for Vladimir Putin but worry about Russian stability
By
Ann M. Simmons and Anastasiia Malenko
June 26, 2023 3:24 pm ET

... But the standoff exposed the fragility of Russian President Vladimir Putin’s hold on power and left many Russians torn on whether to stick with Putin or side with Prigozhin, whose forces have secured the only significant Russian advances in Ukraine in recent months.

The dilemma was captured Monday in the nation’s press, where some outlets applauded what they called Putin’s composed decision-making during the crisis, and others wrote that the insurrection showed a vulnerability that would have long-lasting consequences for the country.


“Prigozhin will go, but the problems remain,” said a headline in Moskovsky Komsomolets, a privately owned Moscow tabloid, adding that “Russia displayed its vulnerability to the whole world and itself.”

...

Social media was awash with comments from Russians trying to determine whether the events were more than political theater. Some speculated whether the CIA was to blame for instigating Prigozhin to rebel.


Others mused on the fate of Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu, who was shown in a video clip Monday inspecting a command post for the war in Ukraine—the first footage of him to appear since the aborted revolt. Shoigu’s removal was a key demand of Prigozhin, who blamed him for sacrificing the lives of tens of thousands of Russian troops on the front line of the war in Ukraine.


The unease persists, however.


Many Russians wondered whether the calm that had returned to most Russian cities on Monday truly signaled an end to the weekend turmoil.


“Lord, everything in our world is so fragile,” wrote one person on Telegram on a social media post from Rostov. “In a matter of days we could have lost everything.”


—Kate Vtorygina also contributed to this article.

[Kathianne]

Putin claims Wagner's 'heavy equipment' being turned over to Russian military. Reading a bit will lead to other ideas perhaps:

https://www.wsj.com/articles/wagner-is-preparing-to-hand-over-heavy-weapons-russian-military-says-723e7a53?mod=hp_lead_pos1


Wagner Is Preparing to Hand Over Heavy Weapons, Russian Military SaysMoscow drops charges against mutineers as Belarus leader says there were ‘no heroes’ in the crisis
Russia said Tuesday that it had closed the criminal case against the Wagner mutineers. MAXIM SHIPENKOV/ZUMA PRESS
By Yaroslav Trofimov
Updated June 27, 2023 9:27 am ET

...

Under a deal brokered by Belarus President Alexander Lukashenko, Prigozhin Saturday night agreed to halt what he had described as a “march of justice” and accepted, at least for now, to go to Belarus.


On Tuesday morning, the Russian Federal Security Service said it closed the criminal case against Wagner’s mutineers. An Embraer Legacy 600 jet affiliated with Wagner was spotted by flight-monitoring services leaving the southern Russian city of Rostov—which had been seized by Prigozhin on Saturday—and landing in the Belarusian airport of Machulishchy near Minsk on Tuesday. There was no confirmation that Prigozhin was on board.


Speaking in Minsk, Lukashenko said Tuesday that he had offered his mediation because Belarus wouldn’t have survived strife in Russia, its main ally. “My position is: If Russia collapses, we will all be under its wreckage, and we will all die,” he said.


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Russian authorities on Monday took pains to show a return to normal life and that they were in control of the situation. PHOTO: ANATOLY MALTSEV/ZUMA PRESS


Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko speaking in Minsk on Tuesday. PHOTO: HANDOUT/AGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE/GETTY IMAGES
There were no winners in Saturday’s crisis, he added. “Don’t make a hero out of me, out of Putin, or out of Prigozhin, because we have let the situation spin out of control, we thought that it would dissipate on its own, and it didn’t,” Lukashenko said. “There are no heroes in this matter.”


Prigozhin was Putin’s onetime confidant, and the president poured huge resources into Wagner in part to create a pretorian force with personal loyalty that could be balanced against the regular military and other security services. Up until the last moment, Putin didn’t interfere in the increasingly acrimonious conflict between Prigozhin and the leadership of Russia’s armed forces.

...

In a defiant recording released on Monday, Prigozhin was unrepentant, saying that his hand had been forced by a decision of the Russian Ministry of Defense to bring all private military companies, including Wagner, under full control of the regular armed forces by July 1. Between 1% and 2% of Wagner’s men had agreed to sign the contract, aware of the incompetence of Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu, Prigozhin said.


Integrating Wagner into the regular Russian military would “lead to the complete loss of combat capacity,” Prigozhin said. “Experienced fighters and commanders will be spread around and turned into cannon fodder, unable to use their combat potential and their combat experience.”


Still, he said, Wagner was planning to drive to Russia’s Southern Military District headquarters in Rostov and publicly hand over its heavy weapons on June 30—a plan that, he said, had been scuttled by the Russian military’s attack on Wagner camps Friday. Some 30 Wagner fighters were killed in those missile and helicopter strikes, he said.


Many Russians were disappointed that the advance on Moscow stopped, he added, “because, apart from the struggle for our existence, they saw in the march of justice the support in the fight against bureaucracy and other ailments that afflict our country.”


Wagner was the only Russian formation that was able to advance in Ukraine since last summer, seizing the town of Bakhmut after months of heavy combat that killed tens of thousands of troops.


Lukashenko said Tuesday that Belarus was taking a “pragmatic approach” to Wagner, and would take advantage of the group’s experience to build up its own armed forces.

...

[Kathianne]

More on 'What's Next?'

https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-riddle-mystery-and-enigma-of-prigozhins-coup-attempt-putin-russia-4d6be513?mod=hp_trending_now_opn_pos4


OPINIONFREE EXPRESSION
The Riddle, Mystery and Enigma of Prigozhin’s Coup Attempt
One thing is clear after the rebellion in Russia: The U.S. was right to support Ukraine after Putin’s invasion last year.
Gerard Baker
June 26, 2023 1:04 pm ET


Watching events unfold in Russia this weekend was like viewing an accelerated newsreel of modern Russian history.


For a while it was 1917 all over again, with a little 1905 and 1989 thrown in. A revolution erupting after a disastrous foreign war. In his remarks on Saturday, Vladimir Putin invoked the 1917 precedent, revealing that he sees himself as more Nicholas II than Vladimir Lenin.


Then there was the symbolic spectacle of a lightning march on Moscow. As social-media feeds filled with images of military convoys rolling along highways and pictures of defensive bulwarks hauled into place at the gates to the capital, it was suddenly a re-enactment of 1812 or 1941. Unlike Napoleon and Hitler, Yevgeny Prigozhin seemed to have gotten his timing right, bearing down on the city in the accommodating midsummer sun.


As the climax seemed to near, an optimist could see hints of 1953 and the death of Stalin—the decades-long rule of a brutal dictator ending in chaos and ignominy, accompanied by the merest hope of something springlike to follow. Somewhat disappointingly, it turned out to be 1991, another dime-store coup that folded like a cheap suit on its first encounter with reality. Unlike that final, desperate bid to rescue communism from the ash heap of history, this one didn’t last even a few days. . .



More likely the sheer impossibility of his supposed mission became evident to Mr. Prigozhin and he took whatever bargain he could to extricate himself and settled for spending the rest of his days in the lovely idyll of Belarus, where he is doubtless being lined up for an early appointment at an open window in a tall building.


The image Mr. Putin’s Russia presented these last few days isn’t one of strength but of a crumbling husk of a former empire, and its main value should be as a powerful rebuttal to the strange little army of Putin apologists in the U.S.


It will be some time before we understand what just happened and what it portends for Mr. Putin, his regime and the war in Ukraine. But we can surely already see that the abortive Wagner mutiny has revealed how wrong the critics of America’s support for the war have been.

...

[Gunny]

Been noting everyone and his brother trying to get in on the "We knew this was going to happen" lineup :rolleyes: Saw a blurb where Putin is trying to take control of Wagner in the ME/Africa. Ran into a paywall. I really should quit being such a tightwad :laugh:

There was a claim yesterday that Russian forces used chemical weapons on Ukrainian forces but the wind blew it back in their faces. No independent verification of that, but I wouldn't doubt it.

I'm fine with Putin downplaying the whole thing. He can murder Prigozhin later. Pretending all is well means he doesn't have to put on some overkill show of force to prove it is.