Kathianne
06-29-2023, 07:37 PM
Ok, I was all hot on Russian revolt or whatever it was; then Biden Inc., heated up. No apologies, I find US more fascinating, yet this is an interesting article by Peggy Noonan, who I used to like about always, not so much anymore. This is one of the times I agree for the most part.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/what-will-prigozhins-rebellion-mean-russia-putin-wagner-group-war-ukraine-europe-893d0c3f?st=8d4w5229mzkpa7c&reflink=desktopwebshare_permalink
What Will Prigozhin’s Rebellion Mean?It’s probably too much to hope for Putin’s downfall, but his telling the truth about Ukraine will matter.
Peggy Noonan June 29, 2023 7:22 pm ET
What happened in Russia last weekend? What will it mean for the world? I remember the words of a veteran American diplomat years ago: “Avoid premature joy.”
...
But we learned things about Mr. Putin. There is every sign he misjudged the situation and wasn’t confident of his position. This was telling. In his speech to the nation last Saturday, he looked scared, talked hot and drew a stunning historical parallel. He invoked 1917, when Russian troops threw down their arms during World War I and went home to join the revolution. That produced turmoil—“the collapse of the state and the loss of vast territories,” followed by civil war. “We will not allow this to happen again.” At war again, anything that weakens Russia is “a knife to the back of our country and our people.” “Those who staged the mutiny and took up arms against their comrades—they have betrayed Russia and will be brought to account.”
And yet before the weekend was out he’d essentially tell Mr. Prigozhin: It’s OK, never mind, go your way.
Mr. Putin’s problem: He didn’t know who’d be loyal to him. What are called the elites—the influential and prosperous, those holding secondary seats of power—weren’t going to back Mr. Prigozhin and weren’t going to back Mr. Putin; they were going to back the winner who emerged. Early this week the Center for Strategic and International Studies hosted a conversation on the still-unfolding events, and a comment by CSIS fellow Maria Snegovaya captured this. “The public, the society, the elites, they have all taken a pause while all this has been unraveling,” she said. “Particularly stunning is the silence of Margarita Simonyan, the notorious editor in chief of RT, who just disappeared from Telegram for a couple of days and then resurfaced saying that ‘Oh well, sorry guys, something happened—I was away, I’m sorry, on holiday, vacation.’ ”
Beyond that and more important, I think Mr. Putin looked so scared during the crisis because he didn’t know and could not know who his military would back under pressure. After 16 months of a demoralizing, embarrassingly unwon war, would the brass be loyal to the boss of 23 years or the supposedly competent mercenary commander in from the field?
The military probably didn’t know themselves. I suspect events would dictate their loyalties—whether Mr. Prigozhin’s forces grew and proved competent in fighting, or whether his column would be bombed, stopped and scattered.
That is probably why Mr. Putin made his unprecedented deal—stop, leave now, and I won’t hold it against you. And I suppose it’s why Mr. Prigozhin stopped and fled the field. He didn’t know if he could pull off something serious.
...
https://www.wsj.com/articles/what-will-prigozhins-rebellion-mean-russia-putin-wagner-group-war-ukraine-europe-893d0c3f?st=8d4w5229mzkpa7c&reflink=desktopwebshare_permalink
What Will Prigozhin’s Rebellion Mean?It’s probably too much to hope for Putin’s downfall, but his telling the truth about Ukraine will matter.
Peggy Noonan June 29, 2023 7:22 pm ET
What happened in Russia last weekend? What will it mean for the world? I remember the words of a veteran American diplomat years ago: “Avoid premature joy.”
...
But we learned things about Mr. Putin. There is every sign he misjudged the situation and wasn’t confident of his position. This was telling. In his speech to the nation last Saturday, he looked scared, talked hot and drew a stunning historical parallel. He invoked 1917, when Russian troops threw down their arms during World War I and went home to join the revolution. That produced turmoil—“the collapse of the state and the loss of vast territories,” followed by civil war. “We will not allow this to happen again.” At war again, anything that weakens Russia is “a knife to the back of our country and our people.” “Those who staged the mutiny and took up arms against their comrades—they have betrayed Russia and will be brought to account.”
And yet before the weekend was out he’d essentially tell Mr. Prigozhin: It’s OK, never mind, go your way.
Mr. Putin’s problem: He didn’t know who’d be loyal to him. What are called the elites—the influential and prosperous, those holding secondary seats of power—weren’t going to back Mr. Prigozhin and weren’t going to back Mr. Putin; they were going to back the winner who emerged. Early this week the Center for Strategic and International Studies hosted a conversation on the still-unfolding events, and a comment by CSIS fellow Maria Snegovaya captured this. “The public, the society, the elites, they have all taken a pause while all this has been unraveling,” she said. “Particularly stunning is the silence of Margarita Simonyan, the notorious editor in chief of RT, who just disappeared from Telegram for a couple of days and then resurfaced saying that ‘Oh well, sorry guys, something happened—I was away, I’m sorry, on holiday, vacation.’ ”
Beyond that and more important, I think Mr. Putin looked so scared during the crisis because he didn’t know and could not know who his military would back under pressure. After 16 months of a demoralizing, embarrassingly unwon war, would the brass be loyal to the boss of 23 years or the supposedly competent mercenary commander in from the field?
The military probably didn’t know themselves. I suspect events would dictate their loyalties—whether Mr. Prigozhin’s forces grew and proved competent in fighting, or whether his column would be bombed, stopped and scattered.
That is probably why Mr. Putin made his unprecedented deal—stop, leave now, and I won’t hold it against you. And I suppose it’s why Mr. Prigozhin stopped and fled the field. He didn’t know if he could pull off something serious.
...