Kathianne
09-08-2023, 05:39 PM
Knowing very little, they claim to be all knowing. Their vast knowledge tells them that if the chosen one, the Supreme Leader, as some refer to isn't elected, they will return to not voting.
Sounds like a feature, not a bug to me:
https://themessenger.com/opinion/politically-the-gop-is-now-standing-in-the-middle-of-fifth-avenue
THE VIEWS EXPRESSED BY CONTRIBUTORS ARE THEIR OWN AND NOT THE VIEW OF THE MESSENGERPolitically, the GOP is Now ‘Standing in the Middle of Fifth Avenue’
Published 09/08/23 08:00 AM ET
Joe Concha
Despite Election Day being more than 420 days away, cable news and online political media is inundated with scenarios of who ultimately will be the major party nominees. Does Donald Trump have a 38.7-point lead in the RealClearPolitics average of polls over Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-Fla.)? Yes. Does Joe Biden have a 53-point lead over Robert F. Kennedy Jr. on the Democratic side? Yes.
So why all the speculation around the fate of two men with monstrous leads?
We've read and heard the speculations:
Biden ultimately will drop out and Gov. Gavin Newsom (D-Calif.) — with the looks, charisma and 25 fewer years of age than him — will swoop in to save the Democratic Party.
On the Republican side, Donald Trump's multiple indictments and more than 90 criminal counts will be too much to overcome, so the former president will cop a plea deal that won’t send him to prison if he agrees to drop out of the race and never run for office again.
Ironically, even though Biden is the current occupant of the Oval Office, he may be easier to replace at the top of his party's ticket than Trump would be for Republicans. A Wall Street Journal poll shows nearly three-quarters of voters believe the 46th president is too old to run again, mimicking an Associated Press poll released last week. Simply put, Biden has the age excuse to step aside, and a solid majority of Democrats would applaud him for doing so instead of pleading with him to reconsider.
Kamala Harris is polling lower than any vice president in the history of polling, so her taking the mantle is seen as a non-starter by most political analysts.
Newsom, who has been running a shadow campaign for months to position himself as the heir apparent, seems the more likely replacement. Moving from Biden — the most liberal president in U.S. history, according to Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) — to Newsom, one of the most liberal governors in the deepest-of-blue states, would be relatively seamless.
With Trump, however, things get infinitely more complicated for the Republican Party if somehow he ends up not being the nominee. To use a Bidenism, “here's the deal:” If Trump decided to drop out, especially if he's convicted in any of the criminal cases against him before Election Day, his tens of millions of core supporters would not take his exit lightly or quietly. There would be no seamless gravitation to whoever the GOP nominee is, even though the policy positions of DeSantis, Sen. Tim Scott (R-S.C.), former governor Nikki Haley (R-S.C.) or Vivek Ramaswamy are essentially the same as Trump’s when it comes to the economy, crime, the border, education, or being anti-woke.
So if the policy positions largely mirror each other, why wouldn't Trump supporters embrace an “America First” approach regardless of who delivers on it? Well, Trump himself said it best during a 2016 rally in Iowa: "I could stand in the middle of Fifth Avenue and shoot somebody and I wouldn’t lose voters. Okay? It’s, like, incredible."
The crowd laughed and erupted in applause, prompting an attendee to shout his love for the candidate. "We love you, too, man," Trump replied.
Political pundits were aghast: Did the GOP frontrunner really say he could shoot someone in broad daylight and he wouldn't lose any votes? But, in retrospect, it's more accurate than it first sounded.
Look at Trump's polling in recent months after indictments on the state and federal levels kept coming in: One month before the first indictment by Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg, regarding alleged hush-money payments to adult film star Stormy Daniels, CNN had DeSantis leading Trump among Republicans and Republican-leaning independents who were registered to vote by 39% to 37%.
But three months later, after the federal indictment handed down by special counsel Jack Smith regarding the classified documents at Trump's Mar-a-Lago residence, that number changed to 53% Trump, 26% DeSantis.
That's a 25-point polling swing following dozens of criminal counts against the former president. And before criticizing DeSantis's campaign as lacking momentum, he wasn't even a candidate when the May CNN poll was released, making these numbers entirely Trump-indictments-driven.
So the question is: Will Trump supporters embrace any other candidate who isn't him? For some, here is the perception of Trump's GOP rivals in a general sense:
DeSantis is seen as a traitor for running against Trump after Trump endorsed him five years ago during his gubernatorial campaign.
Former Vice President Mike Pence also is seen as a traitor for not overturning the 2020 election.
Scott is seen as too nice to get down and dirty with the Democratic machine.
Ramaswamy is seen as too green at age 38 with no foreign policy experience.
Haley, too, is seen as disloyal after working for Trump, only to run against him for president.
These may not be the perspectives of an overwhelming majority of Trump voters. But when states like Georgia come down to about 12,000 votes, Arizona to 10,000 votes and Wisconsin to 20,000 votes, as they did in 2020, getting out the core base is crucial. And one has to wonder how manyTrump-or-bustvoters there are out there, especially as so many see the 45th president as a victim of a weaponized FBI and Justice Department.
What about all the potential voters who usually don't vote? According to the U.S. Census, nearly 13 million registered voters didn't vote in 2020, a game-changer for either side. And 25.8 million eligible voters who weren't registered also failed to participate.
A USA Today/Suffolk University Poll of unlikely voters showed they would support Trump over Biden by nearly 20 percentage points, 32% to 13%. "If they participated in the election, Trump's advantage among them is so wide that they could shift the political landscape to his advantage," the USA Today report notes.
If Trump is the Republican nominee, that may inspire enough voters who aren't happy with Biden to vote for the incumbent anyway out of personal animus for Trump.
If Trump isn't the nominee, it could be Mitt Romney or John McCain all over again, with the kind of Republican voters who propelled Trump to victory in 2016 simply being disgusted with what they see as a rigged system and deciding to boycott the process.
Either way, the issues that impact this country so deeply will get pushed aside.
Presidential contests are increasingly personality contests and less about policy or records. That may explain why Ron DeSantis is struggling to gain traction, why Nikki Haley can't seem to find a sustained groove, or why it's easy to forget Tim Scott is still in the race.
For Republicans, it may not be “damned if you nominate Trump” but “really damned if you don’t."
Sounds like a feature, not a bug to me:
https://themessenger.com/opinion/politically-the-gop-is-now-standing-in-the-middle-of-fifth-avenue
THE VIEWS EXPRESSED BY CONTRIBUTORS ARE THEIR OWN AND NOT THE VIEW OF THE MESSENGERPolitically, the GOP is Now ‘Standing in the Middle of Fifth Avenue’
Published 09/08/23 08:00 AM ET
Joe Concha
Despite Election Day being more than 420 days away, cable news and online political media is inundated with scenarios of who ultimately will be the major party nominees. Does Donald Trump have a 38.7-point lead in the RealClearPolitics average of polls over Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-Fla.)? Yes. Does Joe Biden have a 53-point lead over Robert F. Kennedy Jr. on the Democratic side? Yes.
So why all the speculation around the fate of two men with monstrous leads?
We've read and heard the speculations:
Biden ultimately will drop out and Gov. Gavin Newsom (D-Calif.) — with the looks, charisma and 25 fewer years of age than him — will swoop in to save the Democratic Party.
On the Republican side, Donald Trump's multiple indictments and more than 90 criminal counts will be too much to overcome, so the former president will cop a plea deal that won’t send him to prison if he agrees to drop out of the race and never run for office again.
Ironically, even though Biden is the current occupant of the Oval Office, he may be easier to replace at the top of his party's ticket than Trump would be for Republicans. A Wall Street Journal poll shows nearly three-quarters of voters believe the 46th president is too old to run again, mimicking an Associated Press poll released last week. Simply put, Biden has the age excuse to step aside, and a solid majority of Democrats would applaud him for doing so instead of pleading with him to reconsider.
Kamala Harris is polling lower than any vice president in the history of polling, so her taking the mantle is seen as a non-starter by most political analysts.
Newsom, who has been running a shadow campaign for months to position himself as the heir apparent, seems the more likely replacement. Moving from Biden — the most liberal president in U.S. history, according to Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) — to Newsom, one of the most liberal governors in the deepest-of-blue states, would be relatively seamless.
With Trump, however, things get infinitely more complicated for the Republican Party if somehow he ends up not being the nominee. To use a Bidenism, “here's the deal:” If Trump decided to drop out, especially if he's convicted in any of the criminal cases against him before Election Day, his tens of millions of core supporters would not take his exit lightly or quietly. There would be no seamless gravitation to whoever the GOP nominee is, even though the policy positions of DeSantis, Sen. Tim Scott (R-S.C.), former governor Nikki Haley (R-S.C.) or Vivek Ramaswamy are essentially the same as Trump’s when it comes to the economy, crime, the border, education, or being anti-woke.
So if the policy positions largely mirror each other, why wouldn't Trump supporters embrace an “America First” approach regardless of who delivers on it? Well, Trump himself said it best during a 2016 rally in Iowa: "I could stand in the middle of Fifth Avenue and shoot somebody and I wouldn’t lose voters. Okay? It’s, like, incredible."
The crowd laughed and erupted in applause, prompting an attendee to shout his love for the candidate. "We love you, too, man," Trump replied.
Political pundits were aghast: Did the GOP frontrunner really say he could shoot someone in broad daylight and he wouldn't lose any votes? But, in retrospect, it's more accurate than it first sounded.
Look at Trump's polling in recent months after indictments on the state and federal levels kept coming in: One month before the first indictment by Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg, regarding alleged hush-money payments to adult film star Stormy Daniels, CNN had DeSantis leading Trump among Republicans and Republican-leaning independents who were registered to vote by 39% to 37%.
But three months later, after the federal indictment handed down by special counsel Jack Smith regarding the classified documents at Trump's Mar-a-Lago residence, that number changed to 53% Trump, 26% DeSantis.
That's a 25-point polling swing following dozens of criminal counts against the former president. And before criticizing DeSantis's campaign as lacking momentum, he wasn't even a candidate when the May CNN poll was released, making these numbers entirely Trump-indictments-driven.
So the question is: Will Trump supporters embrace any other candidate who isn't him? For some, here is the perception of Trump's GOP rivals in a general sense:
DeSantis is seen as a traitor for running against Trump after Trump endorsed him five years ago during his gubernatorial campaign.
Former Vice President Mike Pence also is seen as a traitor for not overturning the 2020 election.
Scott is seen as too nice to get down and dirty with the Democratic machine.
Ramaswamy is seen as too green at age 38 with no foreign policy experience.
Haley, too, is seen as disloyal after working for Trump, only to run against him for president.
These may not be the perspectives of an overwhelming majority of Trump voters. But when states like Georgia come down to about 12,000 votes, Arizona to 10,000 votes and Wisconsin to 20,000 votes, as they did in 2020, getting out the core base is crucial. And one has to wonder how manyTrump-or-bustvoters there are out there, especially as so many see the 45th president as a victim of a weaponized FBI and Justice Department.
What about all the potential voters who usually don't vote? According to the U.S. Census, nearly 13 million registered voters didn't vote in 2020, a game-changer for either side. And 25.8 million eligible voters who weren't registered also failed to participate.
A USA Today/Suffolk University Poll of unlikely voters showed they would support Trump over Biden by nearly 20 percentage points, 32% to 13%. "If they participated in the election, Trump's advantage among them is so wide that they could shift the political landscape to his advantage," the USA Today report notes.
If Trump is the Republican nominee, that may inspire enough voters who aren't happy with Biden to vote for the incumbent anyway out of personal animus for Trump.
If Trump isn't the nominee, it could be Mitt Romney or John McCain all over again, with the kind of Republican voters who propelled Trump to victory in 2016 simply being disgusted with what they see as a rigged system and deciding to boycott the process.
Either way, the issues that impact this country so deeply will get pushed aside.
Presidential contests are increasingly personality contests and less about policy or records. That may explain why Ron DeSantis is struggling to gain traction, why Nikki Haley can't seem to find a sustained groove, or why it's easy to forget Tim Scott is still in the race.
For Republicans, it may not be “damned if you nominate Trump” but “really damned if you don’t."