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  1. #1
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    Default Depression? Recession? Some Things Take Time

    None of us know what will happen with the economy, though we all seem to recognize something is very, very wrong. The Depression didn't 'start' in '29 or end with The New Deal, in fact while WWII certainly helped, the government was still trying to deal with it well into the 1950's.

    Really interesting time line here, though I'll just take a 'chunk of it' from the middle and delete some of the things that aren't totally pertinent to the economy, though some things I need to leave, well because I want to.

    1925

    * April 28th, Britain announces return to a gold standard for its currency, setting the value of the pound back to its pre-World War I value of $4.86/pound
    * July 10-25, Scopes Monkey Trial
    * The Great Gatsby, by F. Scott Fitzgerald, published

    1926

    * May 3rd, a nine day nationwide general strike begins in Britain
    * May 20th, Railway Labor Act passed
    * October, economic expansion peaks, recession begins
    * Revenue Act of 1926 passed, cutting taxes of those earning $1M or more by two-thirds

    1927

    ...
    * November, economic contraction ends, recovery begins
    * December, the Ford Motor Company introduces the Model A
    * Federal Reserve reduces the discount rate by half a point and purchases $230 million of government securities

    1928

    * June, France returns to a gold standard, establishing exchange rates of 124 francs per pound and 25.51 francs per dollar

    ...
    * November, Herbert Hoover elected president

    1929

    * February 2nd, Federal Reserve announces a ban on bank loans for margin trades (sound familiar?)
    * March 4th, Herbert Hoover is inaugurated as President
    * June 15th, Agricultural Marketing Act passed
    * August, economic expansion peaks
    * September 3rd, stock market prices peak, with New York Times index of industrial stocks at 452
    * October 24th, "Black Thursday," recorded sales of shares hits 12,895,000
    * October 25th, market rallies, briefly
    * October 29th, "Black Tuesday," recorded sales of shares hits 16,410,000. New York Times index of industrial stocks drops nearly forty points, the worst drop in Wall Street history to that point.
    * November 13th, stock market prices reach low for the year, with New York Times index of industrial stocks at 224


    1930

    * May 30th, New York Times prints petition of 1,028 economists (PDF) who oppose Smoot Hawley Tarrif Act
    * June 17th, Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act is signed into law
    * October, Committee for Unemployment Relief formed
    * Treatise on Money, by John Maynard Keynes, published
    * By year's end, 1350 banks have suspended operations during 1930


    1931

    * January 7th, the Committee for Unemployment Relief releases a report on unemployment showing that 4 to 5 million Americans were out of work.Population: 124 million, today it's at 281,421,906,
    * January 19th, Hoover's Wickersham Commission reports that enforcement of Prohibition has become almost impossible.
    * March 31st, Davis-Bacon Act becomes law, requiring "prevailing" (union) wages to be paid on federal construction contracts
    * May, KreditAnstalt, Austria's largest bank, collapses
    * May 1st, New York's 102-story Empire State Building dedicated
    * June 5th, Chancellor Bruning announces that Germany was no longer going to pay reparations under the Young Plan
    * July 23rd, Macmillan report on Britain's international finances released, pointing out that Britain's short-term liabilities to foreigners is several times the size of Britain's gold reserves.
    * September 21st, Britain goes off the gold standard, the first major power to do so.

    * September, Japan invades Manchuria
    * October 16th, New York Federal Reserve Bank's discount rate raised from 1.5 percent to 2.5 percent.
    * October 17th, mobster Al Capone was convicted of income tax evasion and sentenced to 11 years in prison. (He was released in 1939.)
    * October 23rd, New York Federal Reserve Bank's discount rate raised from 2.5 percent to 3.5 percent.
    * December, Japan leaves the gold standard
    * December 11th, New York Bank of the United States collapses
    * By year's end, 2,293 banks have suspended operations during 1931


    1932

    * January 22nd, Reconstruction Finance Corporation created
    * March 1st, Charles Lindbergh's 20-month-old son, Charles Augustus, Jr., is kidnapped from the family home in New Jersey.
    * April, Federal Reserve officials initiate an open market program to buy $500 million worth of securities
    * May, Federal Reserve officials undertake another open market program, purchasing an additional $500 million worth of securities

    * May 20th, Amelia Earhart took off from Newfoundland for Ireland to become the first woman to fly solo across the Atlantic.
    * June 6th, Revenue Act of 1932 passed, the largest peacetime tax increase in the nation's history to that date
    o raised top tax rates from 25% to 63%
    o reduced personal exemptions from $1,500 to $1,000 for single persons
    o reduced personal exemptions from $3,500 to $2,500 for married couples
    * July, Federal law updated to require that the names of banks borrowing from the Reconstruction Finance Corporation be made public.
    * July 21st, Emergency Relief and Construction Act passed

    * July 28th, Bonus Army Riot begins in Washington, D.C.
    * August 24th, Amelia Earhart becomes the first woman to fly nonstop across the United States, traveling from Los Angeles to Newark, N.J., in just over 19 hours
    * Norris-La Guardia Act passed, outlawing yellow-dog contracts and protecting unions from anti-trust actions, private damage suits and court injunctions
    * Glass-Steagall Act passed (liberalized the terms under which member banks could borrow from the Federal Reserve)

    * Tuskegee Syphilis Study begins
    * November 8th, Franklin D. Roosevelt defeats Herbert Hoover to become the 32nd President (electoral vote count of 472 to 59)
    * By year's end, 1,493 banks have suspended operatins during 1932

    1933

    * January 5th, Construction begins on San Francisco's Golden Gate Bridge
    * January 23rd, 20th Amendment ratified
    * January 31st, Adolf Hitler named Chancellor of Germany
    * February 15th, Chicago mayor Anton Cermak is killed during an assassination attempt in Miami, Florida on President-elect Roosevelt.
    * March, economic contraction ends; economy starts to recover
    * March 4th, FDR is inaugurated as president
    * March 6th, FDR declares a bank holiday
    * March 9th, bank holiday ends

    * March 9th, Emergency Banking Relief Act passed, providing for federal bank inspections
    * March 12th, FDR's first Fireside Chat is broadcast over the radio.Maybe Joe Biden will sign on as a guest?
    * March 20th, FDR signs Economy Act.
    * March 20th, Credit Act passed, indentifying those veterans and dependents of veterans who were entitled to a pension
    * March 31st, Reforestation Relief Act passed, creating the Civilian Conservation Corps
    * April, New York becomes the first to pass a state law regulating minimum producer, wholesale, and retail milk prices (25 other states will take similar action by the end of the 1930s)
    * April 19th, America goes off the gold standard
    * May 12th, Agricultural Adjustment Act passed, authorizing paying farmers not to grow crops
    * May 12th, Federal Emergency Relief Adminstration created
    * May 12th, Farm Relief Act passed, creating the Farm Credit Administration and the Agricultural Adjustment Adminstiration
    * May 18th, Tennessee Valley Authority created
    * May 27th, Federal Securities Act passed
    * June 6th, National Cooperative Employment Service Act passed
    * June 13th, Home Owners' Loan Act passed
    * June 16th, Farm Credit Act passed
    * June 16th, Glass-Steagall Act passed
    o Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation established
    o Federal Reserve empowered to set maximum allowable interest rates on savings and time deposits accounts
    o Payment of interest on demand deposits (checking accounts) outlawed
    o Commercial banks were no longer allowed to engage in investment banking (underwriting securities)
    o Federal Open Market Committee established

    * June 16th, National Industrial Recovery Act passed
    * June 16th, Emergency Railroad Transportation Act passed
    * October 17th, Albert Einstein arrived in the United States as a refugee from Nazi Germany.
    * November 8th, Civil Works Administration (CWA ) created by executive order
    * December 5th, 21st Amendment ratified (repeals 18th amendment, ending alcohol prohibition)
    * By year's end, approximately 4,000 banks have suspended operations in 1933

    1934

    * January 30th, Gold Reserve Act passed
    o Establishes Exchange Stabilization Fund
    o Allows the U. S. Treasury to seize all gold held by Federal Reserve banks

    o Private possession of gold made illegal except for "legitimate" purposes (jewelry, artwork, and industrial and scientific uses)
    * January 31st, FDR issues an executive decree, changing the price of gold from $20.67 an ounce to $35 an ounce
    * January 31st, Congress creates Federal Farm Mortgage Corporation.
    * February 2nd, Export-Import Bank of Washington created, established under DC charter by Executive Order 6581, to assist in financing U.S. trade with the Soviet Union.
    * February 23rd, Crop Loan Act passed
    * February 15th, Civil Works Emergency Relief Act passed.
    * April 7th, Jones-Connally Farm Relief Act passed, bill effectively placing an expanded roster of farm products under the control of the Agricultural Adjustment Administration (AAA).
    * May 23rd, bank robbers Bonnie Parker and Clyde Barrow were shot to death in a police ambush in Bienville Parish, Louisiana
    * June 6th, Securities Exchange Commission established
    * June 19th, Federal Communications Commission created
    * June 19th, Silver Purchase Act passed, empowering FDR to increase the Treasury's silver holdings to 1/3 the value of gold, nationalizing silver stocks and purchases (victory for Free Silverites)
    * June, Taylor Grazing Act passed
    ...
    * August 2nd, German President Paul von Hindenburg dies, paving the way for Adolf Hitler's complete takeover.
    ......

    1935
    ...
    * May 27th, Supreme Court unanimously declares Section 3 of the National Recovery Act to be unconstitutional, in Schecter Poultry Corporation v. United States. Section 3 empowered the President to implement industrial codes to regulate weekly employment hours, wages, and minimum ages of employees.
    ...
    * July 5th, National Labor Relations Act (Wagner Act) passed
    * August 14th, Social Security Act passed
    * August 23rd, Banking Act passed

    ...
    * August 30th, Revenue Act (Wealth Tax Act ) passed.
    o Increased the surtax rate on individual incomes over $50,000, the estate tax on individual estates over $40,000 and graduated steeply taxes on individual incomes over $1 million until the rate was 75% in excess of $5 million.
    o Decreased the small corporation tax rate to 12% while increasing the corporate tax, on incomes above $15,000 to 15%.
    o Some excess profits over 10% were taxed at a 6% rate and in excess of 15% at a 12% rate.

    * August, Neutrality Act passed
    ...
    1936

    ...
    * May 18th, Supreme Court declares (6 to 3) the Bituminous Coal Conservation Act (1935) to be unconstitutional in Carter vs. Carter Coal Co.
    * August 1st, Olympics open in Berlin
    * General Theory of Employment, Interest, and Money, by John Maynard Keynes, published
    ...
    * November 3rd, FDR defeats Alfred M. Landon, Governor of Kansas, to win second term as President (electoral count 523 to 8)

    1937

    * January 20th, FDR delivers his second inaugural address: "I see one-third of a nation ill-housed, ill-clad, ill-nourished."

    * February 5th, FDR introduces the Judiciary Reorganization Bill (FDR's infamous court packing scheme):
    o It proposed to add judges at all levels of the federal courts, assign judges to the more congested courts and adopt procedures to expedite the appeals process by sending lower court cases on constitutional matters directly to the Supreme Court
    o Justices of the Supreme Court who reached age 70 could retire
    o When a Supreme Court justice, age 70, did not retire, FDR could add an additional judge up to 6, potentially increasing the court to 15 members.
    * March 1st, Supreme Court Retirement Act passed, permitting Supreme Court Justices to retire at age 70 with full pay, after 10 years of service
    * March 29th, in West Coast Hotel v. Parrish, Supreme Court upholds (5 to 4) a state minimum wage law for women.
    * April 12th, Supreme Court declares (5 to 4) provisions of NLRA (1935) that guaranteed worker rights to unionize to be constitutional in National Labor Relations Board v. Jones & Laughlin Steel Corporation
    * May, economic recovery stops; economy enters a second depression
    * May 6th, Hindenburg disaster
    * May 24th, Supreme Court declares (5 to 4) that the unemployment compensation provision of the SSA is constitutional in Steward Machine Co vs Davis
    * May 24th, Supreme Court declares (7 to 2) that the old age benefits provisions of the SSA are constitutional in Helvering vs Davis
    * July 22nd, Bankhead-Jones Farm Tenant Act passed, creating the Farm Security Agency (FSA). The FSA established camps for migrant farm workers, provided medical care for those workers and their families, and helped in finding jobs.
    * September 1st, United States Housing (Wagner-Steagall) Act passed, creating the US Housing Authority (USHA) to administer low-interest 60-year loans to small communities for slum clearance and construction projects and to grant subsidies for setting rent geared to low-income levels in areas where local agencies provided 25% of the federal grant.

    1938

    * January 2nd, President Roosevelt establishes the March of Dimes.
    * February 16th, 2nd Agricultural Adjustment Act passed
    * June, economic contraction ends, economy begins to recover
    * June 23rd, Civil Aeronautics Authority established
    * June 25th, Food, Drug and Cosmetic Act signed into law
    * June 25th, Fair Labor Standards Act passed, enacting first national minimum wage law
    * September 30th, British and French prime ministers Neville Chamberlain and Édouard Daladier sign the Munich Pact with Nazi leader Adolf Hitler
    * October 30th, Orson Welles' broadcast of "War of the Worlds" persuades thousands of Americans that the United States is being invaded by Martians
    * November 1st, with 40 million radio listeners tuned in across the country, a long-anticipated match race between two champion race horses, Seabiscuit and War Admiral is run. Seabiscuit beats War Admiral by four lengths in just over a minute fifty-six for the mile and three-sixteenths, a new track record.
    * Supreme Court decides NLRB v. Mackay Radio & Telegraph, finding that employers have an undisputed right to hire permanent replacement workers for striking workers in an economic strike.
    * Democrats lose 71 Congressional seats during November elections

    1939

    ...
    * February 27th, in NLRB v. Fansteel Metallurgical Corp, Supreme Court rules sit-down strikes illegal.
    * April 30th, New York Worlds Fair opens in Flushing Meadows
    * August 2nd, Albert Einstein signed a letter to President Franklin Roosevelt urging creation of an atomic weapons research program.
    * September 1st, Germany invades Poland
    * The Grapes of Wrath, by John Steinbeck, published
    * (??? Act), an all-risk crop insurance program was initiated for interested farmers to prevent economic distress in case of crop failure for hail, floods, and other natural disasters.

    1940

    * September 16th, Selective Training and Service Act passed, requiring men between the ages of 21 and 35 to register for military training
    * November 7th, FDR defeats Wendell Willkie (449 to 82 Electoral College vote totals) to win third term as President
    * How to Pay for the War, by John Maynard Keynes, published (Perhaps something that should be read today?)
    * Investment Advisers Act passed, allowing SEC to supervise the activities of investment advisors
    * Investment Company Act passed, allowing SEC to supervises the activities of mutual funds and other investment companies

    * Transportation Act passed, giving ICC authority to regulate common carriers operating in interstate commerce in the coastal, intercoastal, and inland waters of the U.S.

    1941

    * January 6th, President Roosevelt delivers his State of the Union address, saying "we look forward to a world founded upon four essential human freedoms."
    * January 7th, Office of Price Administration is created.
    * Davis-Bacon Act amended to include military construction

    * March, Lend-Lease Act passed, giving the president the authority to aid any nation whose defense he believed vital to the United States and to accept repayment "in kind or property, or any other direct or indirect benefit which the President deems satisfactory."
    * May 1st, the Orson Welles motion picture "Citizen Kane" premiered in New York
    * December 7th, Japanese attack Pearl Harbor
    * December 8th, U.S. declares war on Japan
    * December 11th, Germany and Italy declare war on U.S.
    http://www.amatecon.com/gd/gdtimeline.html


    "The government is a child that has found their parents credit card, and spends knowing that they never have to reconcile the bill with their own money"-Shannon Churchill


  2. #2
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    Default

    Seriously, I'm unsure how serious this economy thing is. Is it just a warning to clean up this mess, with a recession and getting some controls put back on the markets and Wall Street? Is it the last warning, and $700b would be a drop in the bucket comparatively?

    Seems I'm not alone in my apprehensions and the Rubin warning seems spot on that we should be worried, when they are looking at 'legacy.' There are links:

    http://www.pajamasmedia.com/instapun...es2/024789.php

    September 23, 2008

    ROBERT RUBIN: Don't blame deregulation for the financial meltdown. Congress, on the other hand . . . .

    Meanwhile, reader Stan Brown emails: "I'm watching the Senate hearing and listening to the senators question Paulson, Cox and Bernanke. The markets continue to fall as investors also listen. Clearly, if experience in the Senate leads to the performance we are watching today, experience is seriously overrated. These senators are frightening." I feel that way every time I watch a Senate hearing. Where do we get these people?

    UPDATE: It's Jennifer Rubin quoting Robert Rubin. Scroll down. Ed Cone says that Robert Rubin is engaged in "legacy maintenance." But if so, that still undermines the "It was Bush deregulation" talking point, doesn't it?

    And on the Senate hearings, a hedge-fund reader emails:

    I've been watching these kinds of hearings for far longer than I care to say, and to be honest, this is the best effort I've ever seen by the senators.

    I've seen cringe-inducing tirades, outright lies, and pie-in-the-sky fantasies from that panel in the past. Today, they were sober and honest, with a minimum of grandstanding.

    It's a measure of how seriously they view their own positions, and the gravity of what they're being asked to do.

    Stocks fell because the markets now must discount their doing the right thing and NOT socializing the losses.

    Hmm.
    posted at 01:47 PM by Glenn Reynolds


    "The government is a child that has found their parents credit card, and spends knowing that they never have to reconcile the bill with their own money"-Shannon Churchill


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