Is NATO Crumbling?: Analysis
How budget woes, lagging technology, a resurgent Russia and domestic politics are dissolving the power of a legacy military alliance.
By Joe Pappalardo
The war in Afghanistan is nearing the end of its ninth year, with international troops at almost full strength of 150,000, from the United States and NATO.
Patrick Baz/AFP/Getty Images
There will be a lot at stake at the end of November when world leaders gather for a pivotal NATO meeting in Lisbon. The meeting is meant to hash out a new Strategic Concept, an all-encompassing document issued every decade that guides the alliance's actions and priorities. The last Concept was drafted before 9/11, before the subsequent invasions of Iraq and Afghanistan and before Russia's resurgence as a regional power (and a worldwide power player.)
NATO was smaller back then, as well, and has since adopted countries in the former Soviet Union that border Russia. It's a different world—and there is serious doubt that NATO will have the money and political fortitude to remain relevant.
The Money
Money troubles are nothing new to NATO, but in the midst of a worldwide recession, they're worse than ever. Right now, NATO faces a shortfall of about $700 million. Helicopters are sorely lacking, combat ships are unreliable and soldiers go into combat without the benefit of modern unmanned aerial vehicles (unless they are using the United States'.)
Now add a grim future. The financial situation, globally, is dismal. In Europe, deficits and cutbacks are feeding street protests and layoffs. NATO members have agreed—well, never on paper—to dedicate at least 2 percent of their GDP on defense spending. But even before the financial crisis hit, only a handful of nations (yes, five of 28) were meeting that goal. The U.S. spends about 4 percent of its GDP on defense. So there's a gap there, and over the years that disconnect became a dependency. "I am specifically concerned when it comes to defense spending in Europe," NATO's secretary general Anders Fogh Rasmussen said recently. "We cannot end up in a situation where Europe cannot pull its weight when it comes to security."
It may be too late: the military of the founding members, such as France, Germany and Britain, are becoming increasingly weak. France and Germany do not reach 2 percent threshold, and their recent diplomatic breakthrough has been the formation of a group to coordinate their upcoming military cuts. Last week France's single aircraft carrier had to turn around and return to port for repairs just days into its recent NATO mission. It will likely return to duty within a week, but the setback is more than symbolic. France is not operationally ready for serious military action.
Britain has consistently met the 2 percent goal, but cutbacks announced this week cast some doubt over how viable the country will be as military partners. A military budget cut of nearly 10 percent is seen as fortunate: other ministries got the axe up to 25 percent. Seems reasonable, until you realize that the Ministry of Defense there already faces a 38-billion-pound shortfall in its spending plans over the next 10 years. New aircraft carriers will be built, but there will be a period when they have no carrier strike capability and overall numbers of warships and combat airplanes will be reduced. Overall, 17,000 personnel will be cut. Operations measured in years ("enduring missions") will have a limit of 6000 troops; short-term deployments are capped at 30,000...
NATO Will Not Be Able To Pull Europe's Ass Out of the Fire
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Originally Posted by avatar4321
