THE deadly Ebola virus could hit British shores within three weeks, scientists warned last night.
Experts have analysed the pattern of the spread of the disease, along with airline traffic data, to make the startling prediction Ebola could reach Britain by October 24.
They claim there is a 50 percent chance the virus could hit Britain by that date and a 75 per cent chance the it could be imported to France, as the deadliest outbreak in history spreads across the world.
Currently, there is no cure for the disease, which has claimed more than 3,400 lives since March and has a 90 per cent fatality rate.
Virus expert Dr Derek Gatherer, of Lancaster University, said yesterday: "It's really a lottery.
"If this thing continues to rage on in West Africa and indeed gets worse, as some people have predicted, then it's only a matter of time before one of these cases ends up on a plane to Europe."
France is among countries most likely to be hit next because the worst affected countries - Guinea, Sierra Leone and Liberia - are French-speaking and have busy travel routes back, while Britain's Heathrow is one of the world's biggest travel hubs.
France and Britain have each treated one national who was brought home with the disease and then cured. The scientists' study suggests that more may bring it to Europe not knowing they are infected.
Even assuming an 80 percent reduction in travel to reflect the fact many airlines are halting flights to affected regions, France's risk is still 25 percent, and Britain's is 15 percent.
Across Europe, Belgium has a 40 percent chance of seeing the disease arrive on its territory, while Spain and Switzerland have lower risks of 14 percent each, according to the study first published in the journal PLoS Current Outbreaks.
The World Health Organisation (WHO) has not placed any restrictions on travel.