What Europe Fears: Stumbling To War

[Kathianne]

For the past year and a half, I've been reading how Europe is growing increasingly concerned about Russia, as a real world threat. While the US focuses on tamping down flames in ME and Africa, Europe's eyes have been closer to home.

I stumbled upon this and there is reasons for concern:

http://nationalinterest.org/feature/...ling-war-12662

It's long, 8 pages. Really to long and multifaceted to summarize. It's not difficult though to comprehend and there are many points to ponder.

Russia and America: Stumbling to War

Graham AllisonDimitri K. Simes
April 20, 2015

AFTER THE Soviet Union collapsed, Richard Nixon observed that the United States had won the Cold War, but had not yet won the peace. Since then, three American presidents—representing both political parties—have not yet accomplished that task. On the contrary, peace seems increasingly out of reach as threats to U.S. security and prosperity multiply both at the systemic level, where dissatisfied major powers are increasingly challenging the international order, and at the state and substate level, where dissatisfied ethnic, tribal, religious and other groups are destabilizing key countries and even entire regions.

Most dangerous are disagreements over the international system and the prerogatives of major powers in their immediate neighborhoods—disputes of the sort that have historically produced the greatest conflicts. And these are at the core of U.S. and Western tensions with Russia and, even more ominously, with China. At present, the most urgent challenge is the ongoing crisis in Ukraine. There, one can hear eerie echoes of the events a century ago that produced the catastrophe known as World War I. For the moment, the ambiguous, narrow and inconsistently interpreted Minsk II agreement is holding, and we can hope that it will lead to further agreements that prevent the return of a hot war. But the war that has already occurred and may continue reflected deep contradictions that America cannot resolve if it does not address them honestly and directly.

...

[revelarts]

I'll take a closer look at this later. but I think that a lot of anti Russia talk is old school state rivalry.
Over the last 35 years Russia has lost tons of land and political clout and influence in the region. All without any serious military actions.
while the U.S. and Europe via NATO have created entrenched military positions closer and closer to Russia's boarder. Not the other way around.

NATO has taken over most of what was previously U.S.S.R areas.
Russia's Iraqi buds are gone because of the US military invasion and overthrow.
the Iranian and Syrian Buds are under threat by our planes and ships off the coast.
We've helped depose, Khadffi, another Russian friend.
We are drone bombing about 9 M.E. countries... for freedom, we create a new Africa Command in Africa... and We're trying to set up missile bases that ring the boarders of Russia.

Sorry, sure Putins a no-goodnik but he's got a long way to go before he catches the U.S. in using the military power to secure Russia's interest.

Heck when the U.S. military/cia attacks central and south America neighbors, like Putin's doing in the Ukraine , we call it "the Monroe doctrine" and that makes overthrowing Noriega, assassinating Allende, and repeated attacks on Haiti etc etc A-OK.
Putin just needs better <acronym title="Page Ranking">PR i guess</acronym>.

Many of the former Soviet block countries and break aways have gone to or applied to NATO for member ship.
Who is NATO's only named military enemy?.
US support/ed war against the Russians in Kossavo and the Ukraine and have aided the chechen terrorist.the U.S. and Nato have been putting up a "missile shield" , that rides the boarders of Russia.
Many of the "stans" now have U.S. airbases and U.S. military presence in them, so who exactly is expansionist here?

list coming up...

[revelarts]

the USSR broke up into 15 states
here's a break down of of how military bases have fallen since the collapse.
But first we have to count the FORMER Warsaw pact countries that are now part of NATO
Poland
Hungry
Bulgaria
Romania
Slovakia -(former part of Czechoslovakia)
Albania
OK so they are full blown crossed over and have military aimed at Russia now.

So a few USSR breakaway states are now NATO as well
Estonia
Lativa
Lithuania

That 3 of 15 breakaway states. OK so of the other 12:
"U.S. bases have moved eastward into some of the former Eastern Bloc states of the Soviet empire. The Pentagon is now developing installations capable of supporting rotating, brigade-sized deployments in Romania and Bulgaria, and a missile defense base and aviation facilities in Poland. Previously, the Bush administration maintained two CIA black sites (secret prisons) in Lithuania and another in Poland. Citizens of the Czech Republic rejected a planned radar base for the Pentagon’s still unproven missile defense system, and now Romania will host ground-based missiles."

Estonia:
NATO opens an air base in Estonia (video) - Estonian World
NATO opens an air base in Estonia (video) - Estonian World - View by Ixquick Proxy - Highlight May 2, 2014

Latvia:
Latvia calls for permanent NATO military bases | Europe | DW.DE ...

Lithuania:
May 2, 2014 ... Latvian Prime Minister Laimdota Straujuma, speaking in Washington yesterday, said that she would like to see US troops permanently based in*...

Kazahstan:
Apr 14, 2010 ... Kazakhstan suggested the US to create in its territory a military base instead of the Transit Center Manas in Bishkek. By the*..

Kyrgyzstan:
Jun 3, 2014 ... Kyrgyzstan, a member of the Moscow-led Collective Security Treaty Organization, declined to extend the U.S.' lease of the base last year.

Tajikistan:
(Reuters) - Tajikistan's parliament ratified a deal with Russia on Tuesday to extend by three decades Moscow's military presence in the volatile Central Asian nation, which may face new security threats after NATO troops leave neighbouring Afghanistan.
The agreement to prolong the rent-free lease on Base 201 - Russia's biggest military deployment abroad - was signed in the presence of Russian President Vladimir Putin and his Tajik counterpart Imomali Rakhmon last October.

Uzbekistan:
Uzbekistan is ranked as the sixth most corrupt country in the world by Transparency International and has been banned from most arms purchases in Europe and the United States since political prisoners were discovered to have died in detention a decade ago from scalding water — from, in fact, being boiled alive.
but the US would like a CIA Drone base there , and are willing to work with um.

Belarus:
Apr 26, 2013 ... Moscow has announced its intention to establish a military air base on the territory of neighboring Belarus. This could very well be a response*...to U.S. plans to deploy a missile defense shield in Europe. Source: Russia Beyond the Headlines - Russia responds to U.S. with air base in Belarus | Russia Beyond The Headlines)

Moldova:
Might get a Russian Base

Armenia:
Russia maintains a military base in Armenia and regularly sells weapons to Armenia.

Georgia:
Russia said on Tue Nov 13, 2007 it had formally ended its military presence in Georgia after more than two centuries, closing its last base in its small neighbor. …The United States, especially following the Rose Revolution of November 2003, has increased its scope of activities in Georgia. Former President Bush’s trip to Georgia in 2005 and proclamation of the country as a “beacon of liberty” shows Washington’s interest in Tbilisi. Yet again, the U.S. has been unwilling to formally take up the role of Georgia’s security guarantor, as relative U.S. passivity in the 2008 war with Russia exemplifies. And neither, apparently, has NATO. *While western Allied Heads of State and Governments have, on multiple occasions, expressed their wish to allow Georgia to become a NATO member state, so far, the process has been moving quite slowly.
Slim Options for the Republic of Georgia | EA June 2014

Azerbaijan:
Azerbaijan granted Israel access to air bases on Iran border - Haaretzwww.haaretz.com/ news/ diplomacy-defense/ azerbaijan-granted-israel-access-to-air-bases-on-iran-border-1.421428 -
Mar 29, 2012 ... Foreign Policy quotes U.S. diplomats as saying that 'Israel is deeply ... Israel has been granted access to air bases in Azerbaijan

Ukraine: … ?

"Nato plans stronger military ties to ex-Soviet states south of Russia
Foreign ministers consider holding joint exercises with Azerbaijan, Armenia and Moldova after annexation of Crimea"
theguardian.com, Tuesday 1 April 2014 07.21 EDT
http://www.theguardian.com/world/201...



(i lost some of my links above but you can do a quote search for my sources )

Sooo who exactly should be worried here?
Is Russia a real THREAT... with over half of it's former allies & states now in NATO? And U.S./Nato airbases in several of it's former Republics? Objectively Who looks EXPANSIONIST and "power hungry" and primed for war here, NATO and the US or Russia?

(umm... I guess i'll read your article now Kath, but I wanted to get that on the table.)

[Tyr-Ziu Saxnot]

I'll take a closer look at this later. but I think that a lot of anti Russia talk is old school state rivalry.
Over the last 35 years Russia has lost tons of land and political clout and influence in the region. All without any serious military actions.
while the U.S. and Europe via NATO have created entrenched military positions closer and closer to Russia's boarder. Not the other way around.

NATO has taken over most of what was previously U.S.S.R areas.
Russia's Iraqi buds are gone because of the US military invasion and overthrow.
the Iranian and Syrian Buds are under threat by our planes and ships off the coast.
We've helped depose, Khadffi, another Russian friend.
We are drone bombing about 9 M.E. countries... for freedom, we create a new Africa Command in Africa... and We're trying to set up missile bases that ring the boarders of Russia.

Sorry, sure Putins a no-goodnik but he's got a long way to go before he catches the U.S. in using the military power to secure Russia's interest.

Heck when the U.S. military/cia attacks in central and south America , like Putin's doing, we call it "[I]the Monroe doctrine" and that makes overthrowing Noriega, assassinating Allende, and repeated attacks on Haiti etc etc A-OK.
Putin just needs better <acronym title="Page Ranking">PR</acronym>.

Many of the former Soviet block countries and break aways have gone to or applied to NATO for member ship.
Who is NATO's only named military enemy?.
US support/ed war against the Russians in Kossavo and the Ukraine and have aided the chechen terrorist.the U.S. and Nato have been putting up a "missile shield" , that rides the boarders of Russia.
Many of the "stans" now have U.S. airbases and U.S. military presence in them, so who exactly is expansionist here?

list coming up...

Sorry Rev, but you lost me when you started hyping the obama's M.E. policies/military actions as if they are successful.
They are anything but successful. He helps Iran get nukes, we give back ALL gained in A-stan and Iraq.
And he backed down from Putin on the Ukraine action..Additionally he attacks Israel and our allies almost weekly.
Yes, please do present that list and I hope to have time to examine it in detail..

If you think Russia didn't push bammy around you are reading sources I've never seen.
By the way, obama has forced Japan to step up, rearm because he gives China his support instead of our ally-Japan!

Somehow you missed all of that.... or did ya? -Tyr

[revelarts]

maps of the region, should Russia feel secure?

[Tyr-Ziu Saxnot]

http://theweek.com/articles/449917/w...-war-look-like

What would a U.S.-Russia war look like?



The chances that the U.S. and Russia will clash militarily over Moscow's invasion of Ukraine are very, very slim. Ukraine isn't a member of NATO, and President Obama isn't likely to volunteer for another war. But many of Ukraine's neighbors are NATO members, including Poland, Romania, Slovakia, and Hungary. And so are the the Baltic states — Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia — further north and right on Russia's border.

If any of those countries come to Ukraine's aid and find themselves in a war with Russia, NATO is obliged to intervene. That's also true if Russia comes up with some pretext to invade any of those countries, unlikely as that seems. If we learned anything from World War I, it's that huge, bloody conflicts can start with tiny skirmishes, especially in Eastern Europe.

Again, the U.S. and Russia almost certainly won't come to blows over Ukraine. But what if they did?

If you asked that question during the Cold War it would be like those fanciful Godzilla vs. King Kong, or Batman vs. Superman match-ups: Which superpower would prevail in all-out battle? But Russia isn't the Soviet Union, and military technology didn't stop in 1991. Here, for example, is a look at U.S. versus Russian/USSR defense spending since the end of the Cold War, from Mother Jones.


The U.S. is much wealthier than Russia and spends a lot more on its military. That doesn't mean a war would be easy for the U.S. to win, though, or even guarantee a victory: As Napoleon and Hitler learned the hard way, Russia will sacrifice a lot to win its wars, especially on its home turf.

So, what would a war between the U.S. and Russia look like? Here are a few scenarios, from awful to merely bad:

Nuclear Armageddon
Even with the slow mutual nuclear disarmament since the end of the Cold War, the U.S. and Russia each have thousands of nuclear warheads at the ready. As Eugene Chow noted earlier this year, the entire stockpile of U.S. intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) — 448 active — is essentially aimed squarely at Russia. Russia's hundreds of ICBMs are probably returning the favor.

In all, the U.S. has about 7,700 nuclear warheads, including 1,950 warheads ready to deploy via ICBM, submarine, and airplane, plus thousands more in mothballs or waiting to be dismantled, according to the latest tally by the Federation of American Scientists. Russia has slightly more warheads overall — about 8,500 — but a slightly fewer 1,800 of them operational. China, in comparison, has about 250 nuclear warheads, a bit less that France (300) and a bit more than Britain (225).

Nuclear war with Russia is still mutually assured destruction. Hopefully, that's still deterrent enough.

A conventional war in Eastern Europe
This is the other scenario that never happened in the Cold War. Now, the possibility of scenario one (nuclear Armageddon) makes this one almost equally unlikely. But for the sake of argument, let's assume this hypothetical U.S.-Russia war breaks out in Ukraine, and that other NATO forces are supplementing U.S. troops, ships, and aircraft. Unlike in the Asia-Pacific, where the U.S. keeps China in check (and vice versa, as Eugene Chow explained), NATO provides the United States with a robust military alliance set up specifically to take on Soviet Russia.

The first dynamic is that Russia would have home field advantage: The Russian navy has long called Crimea its home, and whatever troops Russia doesn't already have in Ukraine are right next door, one border-crossing away. The other big starting point is that the U.S. and its NATO allies have Russia effectively surrounded. By its own public count, the U.S. has 598 military facilities in 40 countries, along with the 4,461 bases in the U.S. and U.S. territories.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

MAD is still in effect.
Yet USA would be hesitant to fire off nukes, not so sure Russia would be..
Fairly sure that the obama would not fire any off, and maybe Russia knows that as well.

Our big problem is --if- Russia and China actually truly join as a pact! -Tyr

[Kathianne]

the USSR broke up into 15 states
here's a break down of of how military bases have fallen since the collapse.
But first we have to count the FORMER Warsaw pact countries that are now part of NATO
Poland
Hungry
Bulgaria
Romania
Slovakia -(former part of Czechoslovakia)
Albania
OK so they are full blown crossed over and have military aimed at Russia now.

So a few USSR breakaway states are now NATO as well
Estonia
Lativa
Lithuania

That 3 of 15 breakaway states. OK so of the other 12:
"U.S. bases have moved eastward into some of the former Eastern Bloc states of the Soviet empire. The Pentagon is now developing installations capable of supporting rotating, brigade-sized deployments in Romania and Bulgaria, and a missile defense base and aviation facilities in Poland. Previously, the Bush administration maintained two CIA black sites (secret prisons) in Lithuania and another in Poland. Citizens of the Czech Republic rejected a planned radar base for the Pentagon’s still unproven missile defense system, and now Romania will host ground-based missiles."

Estonia:
NATO opens an air base in Estonia (video) - Estonian World
NATO opens an air base in Estonia (video) - Estonian World - View by Ixquick Proxy - Highlight May 2, 2014

Latvia:
Latvia calls for permanent NATO military bases | Europe | DW.DE ...

Lithuania:
May 2, 2014 ... Latvian Prime Minister Laimdota Straujuma, speaking in Washington yesterday, said that she would like to see US troops permanently based in*...

Kazahstan:
Apr 14, 2010 ... Kazakhstan suggested the US to create in its territory a military base instead of the Transit Center Manas in Bishkek. By the*..

Kyrgyzstan:
Jun 3, 2014 ... Kyrgyzstan, a member of the Moscow-led Collective Security Treaty Organization, declined to extend the U.S.' lease of the base last year.

Tajikistan:
(Reuters) - Tajikistan's parliament ratified a deal with Russia on Tuesday to extend by three decades Moscow's military presence in the volatile Central Asian nation, which may face new security threats after NATO troops leave neighbouring Afghanistan.
The agreement to prolong the rent-free lease on Base 201 - Russia's biggest military deployment abroad - was signed in the presence of Russian President Vladimir Putin and his Tajik counterpart Imomali Rakhmon last October.

Uzbekistan:
Uzbekistan is ranked as the sixth most corrupt country in the world by Transparency International and has been banned from most arms purchases in Europe and the United States since political prisoners were discovered to have died in detention a decade ago from scalding water — from, in fact, being boiled alive.
but the US would like a CIA Drone base there , and are willing to work with um.

Belarus:
Apr 26, 2013 ... Moscow has announced its intention to establish a military air base on the territory of neighboring Belarus. This could very well be a response*...to U.S. plans to deploy a missile defense shield in Europe. Source: Russia Beyond the Headlines - Russia responds to U.S. with air base in Belarus | Russia Beyond The Headlines)

Moldova:
Might get a Russian Base

Armenia:
Russia maintains a military base in Armenia and regularly sells weapons to Armenia.

Georgia:
Russia said on Tue Nov 13, 2007 it had formally ended its military presence in Georgia after more than two centuries, closing its last base in its small neighbor. …The United States, especially following the Rose Revolution of November 2003, has increased its scope of activities in Georgia. Former President Bush’s trip to Georgia in 2005 and proclamation of the country as a “beacon of liberty” shows Washington’s interest in Tbilisi. Yet again, the U.S. has been unwilling to formally take up the role of Georgia’s security guarantor, as relative U.S. passivity in the 2008 war with Russia exemplifies. And neither, apparently, has NATO. *While western Allied Heads of State and Governments have, on multiple occasions, expressed their wish to allow Georgia to become a NATO member state, so far, the process has been moving quite slowly.
Slim Options for the Republic of Georgia | EA June 2014

Azerbaijan:
Azerbaijan granted Israel access to air bases on Iran border - Haaretzwww.haaretz.com/ news/ diplomacy-defense/ azerbaijan-granted-israel-access-to-air-bases-on-iran-border-1.421428 -
Mar 29, 2012 ... Foreign Policy quotes U.S. diplomats as saying that 'Israel is deeply ... Israel has been granted access to air bases in Azerbaijan

Ukraine: … ?

"Nato plans stronger military ties to ex-Soviet states south of Russia
Foreign ministers consider holding joint exercises with Azerbaijan, Armenia and Moldova after annexation of Crimea"
theguardian.com, Tuesday 1 April 2014 07.21 EDT
http://www.theguardian.com/world/201...



(i lost some of my links above but you can do a quote search for my sources )

Sooo who exactly should be worried here?
Is Russia a real THREAT... with over half of it's former allies & states now in NATO? And U.S./Nato airbases in several of it's former Republics? Objectively Who looks EXPANSIONIST and "power hungry" and primed for war here, NATO and the US or Russia?

(umm... I guess i'll read your article now Kath, but I wanted to get that on the table.)

What you wrote about, is part of the report.

[revelarts]

For the past year and a half, I've been reading how Europe is growing increasingly concerned about Russia, as a real world threat. While the US focuses on tamping down flames in ME and Africa, Europe's eyes have been closer to home.
I stumbled upon this and there is reasons for concern:
http://nationalinterest.org/feature/...ling-war-12662
It's long, 8 pages. Really to long and multifaceted to summarize. It's not difficult though to comprehend and there are many points to ponder.

that's a very good article.

Russia really is a country capable of serious harm to the U.S.. as apposed to Iran which has for 20 years been on the brink of getting ONE nuke even it's conventional strength is lame.
IRANIAN air force and navy

Total Aircraft: 471
Fighters/Interceptors: 137
Fixed-Wing Attack Aircraft: 119
Transport Aircraft: 196
Trainer Aircraft: 78
Helicopters: 123
Attack Helicopters: 12

NAVAL POWER
Aircraft Carriers: 0
Frigates: 6
Destroyers: 0
Corvettes: 3
Submarines: 32
Coastal Defense Craft: 111
http://www.globalfirepower.com/count...ountry_id=iran

Sanctions against Russia and the artificial lowering of gas prices to hurt Russia over Ukraine should be settled so that Russia can save face and Ukraine stays out of NATO. But independent of Russia as well.
It's a bad situation and the article writer is right to quote Kennedy's advice IMO.

[tailfins]

Europe's Russia Strategy:

[Drummond]

that's a very good article.

Russia really is a country capable of serious harm to the U.S.. as apposed to Iran which has for 20 years been on the brink of getting ONE nuke even it's conventional strength is lame.
IRANIAN air force and navy


Sanctions against Russia and the artificial lowering of gas prices to hurt Russia over Ukraine should be settled so that Russia can save face and Ukraine stays out of NATO. But independent of Russia as well.
It's a bad situation and the article writer is right to quote Kennedy's advice IMO.

Iran's getting just ONE nuke is massive cause for concern .. I fail to see why you'd want to downplay that in any way. It only takes the deployment of one such weapon to risk a third world war. Besides which .. I think we all know who Iran's preferred target would be. Since when would any attempt at genocide from Iran do anything but damage world stability ??

It's not as though just bombing a single target would be the end of the story for that one weapon deployment, either. What about radiation fallout, drifting across the target country .. or across borders, and geopolitical consequences to be expected from THAT ? What about GENERATIONAL damage to health and wellbeing of anyone within range of even its indirect effects ?

I also don't agree with any moves to stop sanctions against Russia. On the one hand .. Putin already uses them as propaganda. Lifting them to any extent would play into that propaganda, show the Russians lack of resolve and interpreted weakness.

I don't see the smallest reason to do Putin any favours.

[revelarts]

Map of NATO expansion from -1952-2009

[revelarts]

NECRO thread from 2015,
like most of my politics I haven't really moved much.

[Kathianne]

Mine have changed little. Never a hawk, never a dove.

[Black Diamond]

maps of the region, should Russia feel secure?

No. and they don't.

[revelarts]

more interesting maps... 2weeks ago a "conspiracy theory"




details in 2018 article
http://dilyana.bg/the-pentagon-bio-weapons/


and then there's this veiled admission



"biological research facilities"
sponsored by the pentagon.
Is the pentagon working on the cure for cancer now?