Anti-Brexit scaremongering ....

[Drummond]

Those opposing the UK's departure from the EU have been going overboard, recently, in dreaming up scare stories about how badly we'll fare once we leave the EU. Virtually everyday, now, in our media, we're getting 'doom & gloom' prophesies about it.

This one goes to show just how ridiculous and how ludicrously desperate these efforts are turning out to be. View with caution, if in a family environment ...

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...no-deal-brexit

[Noir]

Did you read the document?

What are your thoughts on a no-deal Brexit?

[Drummond]

Did you read the document?

What are your thoughts on a no-deal Brexit?

I did read it, thanks. But, unless you're suggesting that we Brits are incapable of making up for any 'shortfall' ... I fail to understand ...

My thoughts on a no-deal Brexit are simple. A decent deal is to be preferred. However, I seriously doubt that the control-freaking EU, which has done its damndest throughout to make negotiations anything between very difficult and completely impossible, will allow a decent deal.

If we have to walk away minus a deal, then, we do. I'm totally sure that it's EU intransigence (I'm being diplomatic !) which will force that outcome on us. Not a great outcome, to be sure, but better than knuckling under to hostile control freaks, determined to rob us of our autonomy.

We will do what we must, as a proud and independent People, Noir.

[Noir]

I did read it, thanks. But, unless you're suggesting that we Brits are incapable of making up for any 'shortfall' ... I fail to understand ...

Im not talking about the sperm nonsense, that’s just the most clickbaitable part of the papers so ofcourse it leads the headlines - I’m talking about the likes of businesses being advised to hire customs brokers, or that value consignment relief will be cut?

[Drummond]

Im not talking about the sperm nonsense, that’s just the most clickbaitable part of the papers so ofcourse it leads the headlines - I’m talking about the likes of businesses being advised to hire customs brokers, or that value consignment relief will be cut?

Is it just individual members of the public who receive 'scare' stories, designed to sway them ? Why would it be ?

No - it adds to the basis for scaring people, if actual businesses can be persuaded to believe that they must see Brexit as a bad thing. Then they can add to the mix, can't they, and momentum is built.

So far as I'm concerned ... I do think that we'll go through a 'teething troubles' period, because quitting the EU will have major consequences. However, I think it all comes down to adjustment. Those who do lose their nerve, will lose out in the long run. Those who don't will know a better future.

See it this way, Noir. We might have had preferential trading terms with businesses across Europe, as EU members. We will lose those terms once we exit. BUT ... we'll still have a trading relationship, regardless.

This involves trade with just ONE THIRD of the planet's potential marketplace. Locked into the EU, we were actually prohibited from making free trade deals with the other two thirds !! Ah, but, LEAVE the EU, and the brakes come off. We know 'new' freedoms. We can start trading as WE like !!

As I see it, businesses can stay on the bandwagon, or stupidly fall off of it. But, that bandwagon will gain speed, will make progress, plenty of newcomers will join it (not least the US !!) ... and, frankly, in the fullness of time, we'll know much greater prosperity.

Be patient, Noir. Patience --- let it be your watchword. Eventually, with the exception of diehard 'Remoaners', it'll be smiles all round.

[Russ]

Drummond and Noir,

I should probably already know this, but could you explain the difference between the deal and no-deal Brexits? I understand that one involves UK getting a deal from the EU, but what is the deal that is being sought?

Thanks - Russ

I did read it, thanks. But, unless you're suggesting that we Brits are incapable of making up for any 'shortfall' ... I fail to understand ...

My thoughts on a no-deal Brexit are simple. A decent deal is to be preferred. However, I seriously doubt that the control-freaking EU, which has done its damndest throughout to make negotiations anything between very difficult and completely impossible, will allow a decent deal.

If we have to walk away minus a deal, then, we do. I'm totally sure that it's EU intransigence (I'm being diplomatic !) which will force that outcome on us. Not a great outcome, to be sure, but better than knuckling under to hostile control freaks, determined to rob us of our autonomy.

We will do what we must, as a proud and independent People, Noir.

[Drummond]

Drummond and Noir,

I should probably already know this, but could you explain the difference between the deal and no-deal Brexits? I understand that one involves UK getting a deal from the EU, but what is the deal that is being sought?

Thanks - Russ

Well, Russ .. we have 'a deal' with the EU, agreed by both sides .. but, in order to be brought into being as a working arrangement, it must first be ratified by our Parliament. Mrs May's difficulty is that there is far too much resistance to its acceptance to allow that to happen. Without ratification, the deal fails.

As to what it is .. see ..

https://inews.co.uk/news/brexit/cheq...d-theresa-may/

Agriculture and trade The UK and EU agrees a “common rulebook for all goods including agri-foods”, with British ministers committing in a treaty to ongoing harmonisation with EU rules when necessary to provide for frictionless trade at ports and the border with Ireland. The UK Parliament would have the ability to choose not to incorporate future rules, but accepts there would be “consequences” for trade. “Regulatory flexibility” for services, with the UK recognising neither side will enjoy “current levels of access” to each other’s markets.

UK-EU agreements .. a common rulebook on state aid would be agreed, preventing either side from subsidising their own industries. The UK will commit to maintaining high environmental, climate change, social, employment and consumer protection standards. A joint institutional framework to oversee UK-EU agreements, with the UK agreeing to pay “due regard” to EU case law in areas where the common rulebook applies.

Access to European single market .. a “facilitated customs agreement” would remove the need for customs checks by treating the UK and EU “as if a combined customs territory”. The UK would apply EU’s tariffs and trade policy on goods intended for the bloc but would control its own tariffs and trade for the domestic market. The trade tariffs plan will be phased in as both sides complete the necessary preparations.

Benefits from the plan, according to the Government, include: Frictionless access for goods, protecting supply chains the just-in-time model used by major manufacturers such as carmakers. Avoiding the need for a border between Northern Ireland and Ireland or within the UK. Allowing the UK to have an independent trade policy, with the potential to join countries including Japan, Australia, New Zealand and Canada in Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP).

Ending free movement “giving the UK back control over how many people enter the country”. Ending “vast annual payments” to the EU budget, although “appropriate contributions” will still be made for joint programmes in specific areas.

What do the Tories think of the plan? The Chequers plan has divided the Tory party to say the least. Former Brexit minister Steve Baker has warned the party faces a “catastrophic split” if the Prime Minister presses ahead with the proposals. And former Brexit Secretary David Davis has said there is a “rock-solid core” of around 40 Tory MPs who are prepared to vote down the deal in the House of Commons.

There you have it.

In many ways, Mrs May's Chequers deal is apparently 'a good deal' as such. HOWEVER .. it potentially fails in one crucial area, which has to do with the future of a 'frictionless border', between Northern Ireland (UK) and the Republic of Ireland (EU-aligned territory), so, arguably, is actually NOT a good deal, after all. Each side wants its trade rights protected, but the problem with the current frictionless border is, how do customs and security checks from UK to EU and EU to UK territories work, under such an arrangement ?

Nobody's found an answer to that yet.

Enter the now-infamous 'Backstop' arrangement. It provides for continuation for the status quo for - as yet, effectively (.. as it turns out) - AN EFFECTIVELY UNDETERMINED PERIOD. How ? By preserving common Customs arrangements, as they now exist, with us both part of the EU, subject to the same rules.

The problem is that for as long as this 'backstop' is in force, the UK cannot be said to be free of EU rules, which means that Brexit isn't applied to all aspects of the UK. Effectively, our exit from the EU won't be total until it ends.

Critics of the backstop couldn't see how we, the UK, could pull out of that arrangement unilaterally ... given that no solution to the trade situation was found, allowing for a full Brexit. The Government had had legal advice on the matter submitted to it ... WHICH THEY REFUSED TO PUBLISH, SO THAT PARLIAMENT COULD SCRUTINISE IT ... until they were forced to, in Parliament. So, after being forced to ... it emerged that the UK, in the view of our own legal experts, would have no power to unilaterally end the backstop just when they chose to. BOTH sides had to agree to do so ... giving the EU potential power to lock us into it INDEFINITELY.

... thus ... we'd never be fully rid of the EU, until the EU permitted us to be ... if they ever did !

Where we now stand on this is that the vote on the Chequers deal was postponed, at the last minute, yesterday (because Mrs May knew that Parliament would never ratify the deal as it stands). She's now speaking to her EU counterparts to get assurances as to exactly how the backstop would be used, if it came to it, by the EU side. She wants to return with assurances that'll satisfy Parliament and allow for ratification.

Whether she'll get what she's after is highly debatable ... as the EU refuses to renegotiate any part of the deal.

See also ....

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/12/11/brex...it-matter.html

Put briefly ... a 'no deal' scenario, by total comparison, is one where all trading perks with the EU end, and we in many ways close our border to the EU. Businesses would have to trade on comparatively disadvantageous 'WTO' rules.

That said ... at least, we WOULD be free of EU domination in our affairs.

[Noir]

Is it just individual members of the public who receive 'scare' stories, designed to sway them ? Why would it be ?

These are government issued guidelines to U.K. businesses.

[Drummond]

These are government issued guidelines to U.K. businesses.

... in the event of the EU continuing with their stroppiness. Yes ?

A part of the 'let's scrap Brexit, or at least, have a second Referendum' momentum has to do with convincing people that continuing along our present path is just too problematic. Its message is to say 'We're better off in Europe. Continuing to quit it has far too many issues for us to continue as we are'.

In other words ... surrender to the will of a bully.

That, Noir, may be your choice. IT IS NOT MINE.

[Noir]

Is there any presentation of information you could conceive that would convince you that Brexit is a poor idea?

[Drummond]

Is there any presentation of information you could conceive that would convince you that Brexit is a poor idea?

Doubtful, Noir. It's a classic case of prognostication versus reality.

I'm aware that various businesses, even a couple of 'think tanks', to say nothing of stories about how our Government is preparing for 'the worst' once we leave (especially in a no-deal scenario, of course) .. might all argue the 'Brexit = Armageddon' scenario. Doubtless there are many on the Left, yourself included (?) who've bought into all that.

To all of this, I'd say two things:

1. There was a time when we not only managed just fine without any propping-up from an entity the equivalent of the EU, but we even thrived on our own efforts, even to the extent of creating an Empire !! Noir, we're far from helpless. Teething troubles are to be expected, for a while. But, once we establish our new and expanded trading and business infrastructure, then thrive we will !!

2. Bear in mind that prognosticating is no substitute for reality. No matter how 'educated' the basis for it may be, nonetheless, something unforeseen may happen to render calculations and expectations worthless. We saw a major example in recent history .. the 2008 crash.

Who saw that crash coming ? What financial model foresaw its consequences in advance ?

See my point ? There's no telling what we have to come. Prognosticate your guts out ... even invoke, if you can, Office for National Statistics data (ONS) to help you ... the people who produce National Accounts data. It ultimately makes no difference. Reality, Noir, isn't known UNTIL IT HAPPENS.

You'll just have to wait for Brexit kicking in, then wait a while longer for the dust to settle, before you know for sure what our long-term future is. Probably it won't be known with certainty until the next decade is well underway.

Be patient. And, a tip: be optimistic....

================================================== =====================================

In the meantime ... who's in the mood for the latest, puerile (and ever-desperate), scare story ? Yep, another one .... get this ....

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-45301966

Next year's Grand National could look very different if the UK leaves the EU without a deal, the British Horseracing Authority warns.

Crashing out of the EU would potentially have a huge impact on Irish trainers and Irish horses.

And it could see the end of the Tripartite Agreement system which allows horses to be easily moved between the UK, France and Ireland.

['We're doomed. Doomed, I tell ye ...']

Scraping the bottom of the barrel, much ??

[Noir]

That’s fine - you’re in a position were you are happy to state that more or less nothing could convince you that Brexit is a poor idea. I don’t think that’s a great way to approach the topic. But you do you.

[Drummond]

Glad you appreciate my position, Noir.

REALITY .. nothing trumps it. Prognstications have limits ! It's too early for anyone to conclude that the UK won't thrive after Brexit, and as of now there's no reason at all to conclusively assume it. After all, none of the doom-mongers can possibly predict just how our future trading across the world will go !!

Noir, being a Leftie, you need people to question. You need presumptions you disagree with to be undermined. I understand that ! But in this case, you simply need to wait and see what unfolds, in due time.

[Noir]

Do you think it’s possible that the U.K. will struggle, and the effect of Brexit will be a net negative?

[Drummond]

To begin with, and as I've said, there will be teething troubles. This is only to be expected with a re-jigging of our very viability as a 'standalone' Nation State involved (.. something we were increasingly ceasing to be, as an EU member tied into EU diktats !).

In the longer term, that'll change. We'll settle in to the new order. And most importantly ... free of the EU, we'll be free to negotiate, in detail, our OWN trade deals, for OURSELVES. We are robbed of that freedom, at present.

I lack any reason at all to think that our efforts at this will fail !!! Perhaps if you can provide your own reasons, you'll do so ?

But considering that most of the world's potential trading partners will be accessible to us, in a way they currently FAIL to be, courtesy of control-freaking EU strictures ... why WOULD we be worse off ??

Reality, of course, has yet to kick in. Bear that in mind.