One Of Those "Tough" Leaders Heading For Hard Times?

[Kathianne]

Couldn't happen to a better fellow:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...ekrem-imamoglu

All eyes on Erdoğan after opposition's historic win in Istanbul



As Ekrem İmamoğlu backers revel in victory, attention shifts to how the president will react

The last partygoers went home as the sun came up. Across Istanbul on Sunday night, hundreds of thousands of opposition supporters danced in the streets waving Turkish flags and brandishing glasses of beer and raki after their candidate for mayor delivered the most serious blow to the president, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, in his political career.


As municipal workers cleaned up on Monday morning, however, the front pages of Turkey’s pro-government newspapers downplayed the unprecedented success of the Republican People’s party (CHP) mayor-elect, Ekrem İmamoğlu.


“Istanbul has voted,” read the subdued headline of the usually rabidly pro-Erdoğan tabloid Yeni Şafak. There were no pictures of the fireworks and scenes of jubilation hours before.


While the opposition nurses a collective hangover, attention is turning to what the president’s next move will be. İmamoğlu ended 25 years of Islamist party dominance in the rerun for control of Turkey’s biggest city and economic centre, which accounted for 31% of GDP in 2017.

The result has serious financial implications for the ruling Justice and Development party (AKP) and its patronage networks, and will amplify the sense among the opposition and within Erdoğan’s party that the president’s power is starting to wane.

The loss of Istanbul also has repercussions for policymaking in Ankara. The second defeat has ossified divisions within the president’s party and has led to a collapse in public support for his coalition partner, the rightwing Nationalist Movement party (MHP). Erdoğan needs the MHP to command a majority in parliament. A cabinet reshuffle is likely.

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The former president Abdullah Gül and the former prime minister Ahmet Davutoğlu both openly criticised the AKP for seeking a rerun, fuelling rumours in Turkish media that the senior politicians were preparing to form breakaway parties.

There is also speculation that Erdoğan may call a snap election to rid his government of fractious elements as he grapples with issues such as Turkey’s struggling economy, Ankara’s next steps in Syria’s war and the prospect of US sanctions over the planned purchase of a Russian S-400 missile system.

Nicholas Danforth, a senior visiting fellow at the Washington-based German Marshall Fund thinktank, said: “Erdoğan is adept at being conciliatory when necessary and cracking down on dissent when necessary.

...

[Gunny]

He will be arrested on bogus charges, have an "accident" or just be outright murdered by some "disaffected youth" somebody. That of course will give Erdogan an excuse to impose martial law as a "threat to the security of the Turkish government"

ANd yes, Erdogan IS that much of a thug.

[STTAB]

He will be arrested on bogus charges, have an "accident" or just be outright murdered by some "disaffected youth" somebody. That of course will give Erdogan an excuse to impose martial law as a "threat to the security of the Turkish government"

ANd yes, Erdogan IS that much of a thug.

Ah yes Turkey, another murderous regime that pretends to be our friend but isn't, and yes Erdogan is a thug. Don't worry though, I'm sure John Bolton intends to invade them at some point lol

[Gunny]

Ah yes Turkey, another murderous regime that pretends to be our friend but isn't, and yes Erdogan is a thug. Don't worry though, I'm sure John Bolton intends to invade them at some point lol

When you get bored, take a look at the Middle East subforum. Quite a bit of reading material on Turkey along with my commentary regarding Turks.

If Bolton wants war with Russia he can go right ahead. Turkey borders Russia and the Black Sea. No way Putin would allow that. The same would go for Putin invading, and why Turkey is part of NATO still when we really don't need a Cold War listening post anymore. We've advanced from the giant antennas and close proximity we needed then.

I definitely think we should kick Turkey's ass out of NATO and off the Christmas card list. I hate Turks.

[Kathianne]

Despots rarely go of their own accord. Uprisings from the people are nearly always violent and vacuum creating:

https://strategypage.com/on_point/201906268243.aspx

On Point: Good News for NATO: Turk Voters Reject Erdogan's Ego-Sultan Regime
by Austin Bay
June 26, 2019

If the Istanbul electoral thrashing Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan received June 23 eventually topples him, Turkey's citizens will prove once again they can protect their democracy from corruption by a hyper-empowered strongman and authoritarian Islamism.


Erdogan is on the verge of destroying Turkish democracy. He is also an emerging threat to the integrity of NATO, which means he's a threat to U.S. security. If "security" sounds vague, confront a specific. Sultan Recep (Erdogan's derisive nickname) threatens the F-35 Joint Strike Fighter's technological edge, which means he aids and abets America's military enemies.


Let me address NATO and then circle back to Turkish democracy and the Istanbul election, which Erdogan and his notionally Islamist Justice and Development Party (AKP) lost decisively.


NATO members are sovereign states. They owe their citizens honest debate on budgets and troop commitments. Despite policy and budget disagreements, NATO won the Cold War and set a record: It's the world's longest-lived military collective defense alliance -- an alliance where the sovereign members pledge to defend one another against external military threats.


Turkey's problem-strewn participation in NATO's F-35 fighter program exemplifies Erdogan's increasingly authoritarian contempt for the type of fundamental military cooperation genuine mutual defense requires.


Turkey eagerly joined the F-35 consortium. The jet gives collective defense an edge.


Enter obstreperous Erdogan. Ignoring consequential pleas from his allies, Erdogan decided to buy the Russian-made S-400 air defense missile system. I hold him personally responsible because after his reorganization of Turkey's government, he is a power unto himself.

Sultan Recep's decision makes him a strategic enemy. If integrated into NATO's air defense network, the S-400 could disrupt NATO's collective air defense and potentially serve as a digital Russian spy tapping other networks. In real time, Moscow could locate every NATO warplane.


The technical risk is real; the trust issue is fundamental. In early June, the Pentagon began "unwinding" Turkish participation in the F-35 program.


I think it's quite fair to conclude that an election that sends Sultan Recep into retirement would ensure Turkish membership in NATO. As a bonus, the Turkish Air Force would get to fly the F- 35 with pride. (Good rumor has it the Turkish pilots who've flown it like it.)


Turkey brings a lot to NATO. Full Turkish partnership damages several international bad actors, first and foremost Vladimir Putin's crooked Russian regime. The overt record shows that since 2008, Czar Vlad has made disrupting and damaging NATO a Kremlin priority. Robust Turkish NATO membership also stymies Iran's robed Islamist dictators.




In late June 2019, Turkish voters in Istanbul began unwinding the source of the F-35/S-400 controversy, Sultan Recep.


Here's critical historical background to that election: The Turkish Republic that Mustafa Kemal Ataturk created in 1923 from the ruins of the post-World War I Ottoman empire was decidedly secular. Ataturk sought relationships with Western European democracies and pursued technical modernization. Turkey's democracy is Ataturk's legacy. To use a grander lens, Ataturk is the only man to successfully create a political system to modernize a culturally Islamic nation.


In the 2002 elections, Erdogan's "moderate" Islamist AKP defeated the Republican Peoples Party (CHP, founded by Ataturk). In 2003, Erdogan became prime minister. Year by year Turkey's government became less secular and more authoritarian as Erdogan forged a powerful executive. Since July 2016's curious coup, he has systematically jailed journalists, repressed political opponents and purged government workers.


More dirt: June's election was an authoritarian mulligan forced by Erdogan. The CHP won the March 31 vote in Turkey's three pre-eminent cities, Istanbul, Ankara and Izmir. Erdogan managed to annul the Istanbul narrow tally.

March's Istanbul victor, Ekrem Imamoglu, won the June tally by an overwhelming margin.


Local elections in Istanbul are national bellwethers. Sultan Recep needs to go.


But ... if he attempts to undermine the CHP's victory, if he becomes increasingly oppressive, if another curious coup occurs ...

Make it easy, Sultan. Resign.