China Didn't Blink First

[Kathianne]

Hmmm... and here I just heard an expert on Fox News saying the FED can adjust the interest rate down to where it should be and we're in good shape, that the economy is rock solid and all this talk of a coming recession is wild speculation.

Predicting anything is dicey. The thing with markets is there is most definitely a herd mentality:

https://www.foxbusiness.com/economy/...nals-recession

Recession indicator with perfect track record flashing red
By Jonathan GarberPublished August 14, 2019

The yield curve is blaring a recession warning.


The spread between the U.S. 2-year and 10-year yields on Wednesday turned negative for the first time since 2007. Such a development has occurred ahead of each and every U.S. recession of the last 50 years, sometimes leading by as much as 24 months.


“Historically, the 2-10 has had better predictive ability of recession than equities,” Sri Kumar, president of the Santa Monica, California-based Sri-Kumar Global Strategies, told Fox Business.


“If you depended on equities to tell you whether you are entering into a recession you did not do well. For example, October, November of 2006, exactly one year before the Great Recession began, the 2-10- inverted. Equities did well in the first half of 2008 when we were in a recession and oil prices hit a peak in May of 2008 when we were very much in a recession.

[Kathianne]

So a couple days ago, the President says that 'some' tariffs will not be implemented until December 15, in a tweet he says, 'it will help China more than us, but they will reciprocate.' He even offered to meet with Xi.

Overnight, China responded, seems Xi is miffed about the remaining tariffs to be implemented in September, so he announces, 'China will retaliate for these tariffs.'

With that, the futures again started going south.

Tariff wars are not a good thing.

[Tyr-Ziu Saxnot]

China did blink. The currency changes they are making is the blink.
As is the blustering and the realization that their desire to expand as a great sea-power, is now meeting greater opposition from USA/President Trump.
China had been pursuing a bullying policy at sea for the entire 8 years of the obama administration--now Trump has started to institute a few moves to block/slow that agenda, IMHO.
As usual mainstream media spin has Trump being in the wrong--all according to their leftist, pro-dem, propaganda...... -Tyr

[Kathianne]

China did blink. The currency changes they are making is the blink.
As is the blustering and the realization that their desire to expand as a great sea-power, is now meeting greater opposition from USA/President Trump.
China had been pursuing a bullying policy at sea for the entire 8 years of the obama administration--now Trump has started to institute a few moves to block/slow that agenda, IMHO.
As usual mainstream media spin has Trump being in the wrong--all according to their leftist, pro-dem, propaganda...... -Tyr

I think he may be right in the long run, but elections are next year. We'll see if the markets sort themselves out, though seems unlikely when the US is the only economy that isn't already contracting or starting to.

[High_Plains_Drifter]

I think he may be right in the long run, but elections are next year. We'll see if the markets sort themselves out, though seems unlikely when the US is the only economy that isn't already contracting or starting to.

Are you kidding. China is really feeling the heat. The only difference between the US and China is, the Chinese communist government doesn't give a damn what their people think. They don't worry about elections. They just rule with an iron fist. If their people are suffering, too damn bad. Here it's a completely different story. China can force their people to suffer to win a trade/tariff war, but oh my, in America, if little Suzie has to pay another $1.35 for her laptop, holy shit hits the fan and the democrat propaganda wing goes into melt down.

[Kathianne]

Are you kidding. China is really feeling the heat. The only difference between the US and China is, the Chinese communist government doesn't give a damn what their people think. They don't worry about elections. They just rule with an iron fist. If their people are suffering, too damn bad. Here it's a completely different story. China can force their people to suffer to win a trade/tariff war, but oh my, in America, if little Suzie has to pay another $1.35 for her laptop, holy shit hits the fan and the democrat propaganda wing goes into melt down.

Kidding about what?

US economy is the only one still expanding?
Germany is in the negative, one more quarter and official recession. UK is right there too. Rest of Europe is contracting.
China is slowing down, not looking to improve in short run.

What are you wondering about me kidding?

[STTAB]

Kidding about what?

US economy is the only one still expanding?
Germany is in the negative, one more quarter and official recession. UK is right there too. Rest of Europe is contracting.
China is slowing down, not looking to improve in short run.

What are you wondering about me kidding?

Yep, our capitalist evil white country is the only one that is still booming. Don't worry the Dems intend to change that in 2021.

[Gunny]

Good thing Rocky didn't blink first in his rematch with MR T or he'd have lost

I've not once held a leadership position that was static. Meaning, my great idea last month might need a change in direction this week, determined by an environment that changes from one minute to the next.

I'd prefer the President adjust accordingly to new data than form a plan and stick to it come Hell or High Water because it's "his plan". The latter being the plan of a fool.

[High_Plains_Drifter]

Kidding about what?

US economy is the only one still expanding?
Germany is in the negative, one more quarter and official recession. UK is right there too. Rest of Europe is contracting.
China is slowing down, not looking to improve in short run.

What are you wondering about me kidding?

"Are you kidding" is just a quip.

I got the impression that you were saying China was still in good shape and can weather a trade/tariff war much better than America.

Looks like we're on the same page though.

[Kathianne]

"Are you kidding" is just a quip.

I got the impression that you were saying China was still in good shape and can weather a trade/tariff war much better than America.

Looks like we're on the same page though.

Quip or not, you were thinking that I was writing something different than I was, which is why I tried to explain.

China's economy may be weaker than ours, but ours cannot take the instability without also following the world wide slowdown, which is precisely why we shouldn't be doing this, especially if the President wants a second term. Being in or sliding into a recession is a real challenge to re-election.

[High_Plains_Drifter]

Quip or not, you were thinking that I was writing something different than I was, which is why I tried to explain.

China's economy may be weaker than ours, but ours cannot take the instability without also following the world wide slowdown, which is precisely why we shouldn't be doing this, especially if the President wants a second term. Being in or sliding into a recession is a real challenge to re-election.

Well.... it has to be done though. China can't continue ripping off America. Other nations have doing the same thing too. America isn't the world's whipping post or piggy bank. If we're going to suffer, then the rest of the world should get a taste of what we've been going through.

[Kathianne]

Well.... it has to be done though. China can't continue ripping off America. Other nations have doing the same thing too. America isn't the world's whipping post or piggy bank. If we're going to suffer, then the rest of the world should get a taste of what we've been going through.

If you can get with Trump possibly sacrificing his second term for attempting to bring China to heel in one term, go for it!

[STTAB]

Quip or not, you were thinking that I was writing something different than I was, which is why I tried to explain.

China's economy may be weaker than ours, but ours cannot take the instability without also following the world wide slowdown, which is precisely why we shouldn't be doing this, especially if the President wants a second term. Being in or sliding into a recession is a real challenge to re-election.

That is EXACTLY what China is banking on. That Trump will back down fearing he'll lose reelection, and lose anyway so that they can continue about their merry way.

IF Trump holds tough and we don't slide into a recession and Trump gets reelected China will suddenly be ready to negotiate, because they absolutely can not withstand another four years of Trump demanding fairness via tarrifs. They can only devalue their dollar for so long.

[FakeNewsSux]

That is EXACTLY what China is banking on. That Trump will back down fearing he'll lose reelection, and lose anyway so that they can continue about their merry way.

IF Trump holds tough and we don't slide into a recession and Trump gets reelected China will suddenly be ready to negotiate, because they absolutely can not withstand another four years of Trump demanding fairness via tarrifs. They can only devalue their dollar for so long.

Trump antes up once again:

Trump moves forward with F-16 sale to Taiwan opposed by China


© © Getty Images

Leading lawmakers are commending the Trump administration for moving forward with a proposed sale of F-16V fighter jets to Taiwan after the administration informally notified Congress of the sale, to which China is staunchly opposed.
Senate Foreign Relations Committee Chairman Jim Risch (R-Idaho) said the F-16s are “critical” for Taiwan's defense.
“These fighters are critical to improving Taiwan’s ability to defend its sovereign airspace, which is under increasing pressure from the People’s Republic of China,” Risch said in a statement Friday. “I commend the Trump administration for making this decision to bolster Taiwan’s defensive capabilities, and note the strong bipartisan and bicameral support for this sale.”
In the House, Foreign Affairs Committee Chairman Eliot Engel (D-N.Y.) and ranking member Michael McCaul (R-Texas) said in a joint statement that the sale will send a “strong message.”
“The sale of F-16s to Taiwan sends a strong message about the U.S. commitment to security and democracy in the Indo-Pacific,” they said. “As leaders of the House Foreign Affairs Committee, we are pleased the administration is moving forward with this sale and have every confidence that it will be supported on a bipartisan and bicameral basis.”
The Trump administration sent the committees an informal notification late Thursday that it had approved the sale, two congressional aides confirmed. Taiwan requested to buy 66 F-16s, a sale estimated to be worth $8 billion.

http://thehill.com/policy/defense/45...sale-to-taiwan

[STTAB]

I actually think Trump plays too nice with these countries. The other night, for example, he said over and over "China wants to make a deal" "North Korea wants to make a deal" "Iran wants to make a deal" no they don't, they will have to be FORCED to make a deal that is fair and equitable to the US.