Hurricane Scientists Flubbed Forecasts for Two Years

[MtnBiker]

By Kelly Riddell and Elizabeth Lopatto

Sept. 10 (Bloomberg) -- Hurricane researchers, who forecast seven more storms this season, have flubbed the past two annual estimates because of unusual El Nino and La Nina weather phenomena in the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans.

The predictions reflect variables that make this kind of weather forecasting ``more art than science,'' said Eric Blake, a hurricane specialist at the National Hurricane Center in Miami. Two of the nine Atlantic hurricanes predicted already have occurred for the season that ends Nov 30. Last year, five storms emerged after nine were anticipated.

Variables make forecasting more of an art than science, huh??

Link

[Mr. P]

It's all just a "SWAG" anyway. You know what a "SWAG" is, right?

[MtnBiker]

Scientific Wild Ass Guess, something we should make policy on.

[Mr. P]

Scientific Wild Ass Guess, something we should make policy on.

There ya go.

I all fairness, that's weather overall. I was right many more times than I was wrong, but I never saw it as an ART.

[Abbey Marie]

But it does seem that since Katrina, we are always getting overblown doom and gloom hurricane forecasts.

[Mr. P]

But it does seem that since Katrina, we are always getting overblown doom and gloom hurricane forecasts.

Yep. I think politics found it's way into the "National" hurricane Center.

[Abbey Marie]

Yep. I think politics found it's way into the "National" hurricane Center.

Yes, and even at the Weather Channel.

[Hagbard Celine]

How can it be more art than science when hurricanes are trackable with satellite imaging? It's not like they're throwing grass clippings up in the air and making their forecasts based on that. I think the guy they got to comment in this article is some kind of idiot. Either that or he's a wise-ass.

[MtnBiker]

They are talking about forecasting a hurricane season, not just traking current weather patterns.

[Hagbard Celine]

They are talking about forecasting a hurricane season, not just traking current weather patterns.

Somehow I doubt the level of recorded information we have about the Earth's yearly hurricane activity is enough to clearly define any sort of pattern that could be used to predict the intensity of a coming hurricane season. Maybe in another hundred years.

[MtnBiker]

So we don't currently have reliable information or models to forecast? huh?

[Hagbard Celine]

So we don't currently have reliable information or models to forecast? huh?

Maybe hurricane patterns can't be seen on a year to year basis due to the enormous size of the weather systems involved. Perhaps more time and data are needed to reveal reliable patterns. That would explain why, with the amount of information they have currently, these scientists can't accurately predict the intensity of coming hurrican seasons.

[MtnBiker]

Really?? Are hurricanes part of weather and climate?

[theHawk]

Somehow I doubt the level of recorded information we have about the Earth's yearly hurricane activity is enough to clearly define any sort of pattern that could be used to predict the intensity of a coming hurricane season. Maybe in another hundred years.

But sir, that isn't what the global warming alarmists want to believe. They want to be able to say GW is causing more hurricanes.

[Hagbard Celine]

Really?? Are hurricanes part of weather and climate?

Is this a trick question? No. Hurricanes aren't part of weather and climate. They're a side-effect of the Easter bunny.