The Economy Is Collapsing. So Is Trump's Reelection Bid
The first title was the lead in from RCP, the second the actual title at the other site.
I honestly couldn't disagree more with her. And not because I'm a righty. You can't compare this to Jimmy Carter or really any other event, this is far different. And why anyone blames the virus on Trump is odd. I guess they can nitpick on some things, but people dying and the economy dropping and shortages and such... it is what it is.
And Trump hasn't been perfect. But he HAS been on this since January, while the MSM was still condemning his bans and he's a racist all the way up to the first few weeks of March. His approval numbers on handling this have slowly risen. But many will use this pandemic in any way they can think of to blame Trump and condemn him and try and use it towards the upcoming election.
Thus far, I think it backfires again, as these folks are picking the wrong time to pull this shit.
Suppose the economy and jobs hit rock bottom, and because the virus killing people and inability to reopen. It may even end up that way for some and not other areas. It's an unfortunate combination of events that sucks worse than anything, but blame the damn shitty virus, and maybe however it started, but we shouldn't be blaming the folks trying to help. From Trump, to Cuomo, to Deblasio on down. I would rather live to condemn later, even if I'm broke and hungry by then, I'll be alive!
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The Economy Is Collapsing. So Is Trump's Reelection Bid Annie Lowrey, The Atlantic
The Most Important Number for Trump’s Reelection Chances
For Donald Trump’s reelection campaign, many numbers matter: the number of Americans who get sick and perish from the coronavirus. The number of months before the economy begins to reopen and rebound. The number of Americans who lose their health insurance and home after losing their job. For political scientists, one number is of particular interest, and it currently stands at –18.3.
That is an estimate of how fast the economy is collapsing in the second quarter, an annualized rate derived by Mark Zandi of Moody’s Analytics. It is a measure of how much less the American economy is producing as businesses close and joblessness swells and the pandemic kills. And it is one of the strongest predictors of whether an incumbent is likely to win reelection: An additional percentage point of GDP growth translates roughly into an additional percentage point of the vote share. Americans are seeing their economy evaporate at the fastest pace in modern history, and that foretells a Democratic landslide in the fall.
Or perhaps not. The coronavirus pandemic is a black-swan crisis happening to a singular president in an extreme political environment. A number that might signal unavoidable doom for another candidate in another election might not for Trump come November.
As a general point, the economy matters for presidential campaigns—not to the extent that it is the only thing that matters, but it matters more than almost anything else. Research shows that voters seem to care about financial conditions more in the year of an election than in the prior years of a president’s term. And they seem to care more about the direction in which the economy’s headed than about its overall health.
The economy helps explain Jimmy Carter’s loss in 1980 and George H. W. Bush’s loss in 1992, as well as Barack Obama’s victory in 2012. The jobless rate was rising sharply during Carter’s and Bush’s reelection campaigns, with the ravages of stagflation and the fallout from an oil-price shock, respectively, souring voters on the incumbent presidents. Although Obama was presiding over a dismal economy when he fought Mitt Romney in his 2012 reelection bid, things were turning around.
This year’s projected headline numbers look dire for Trump, far worse than the numbers ever were for Carter, Bush, or Obama—far worse than they have looked for any postwar president. The jobless rate is anticipated to jump fivefold or tenfold in a matter of weeks, from its current rate of 3.5 percent. Growth is anticipated to tip down from a 2 or 3 percent annual rate to –18.3 percent, as Zandi estimates, if not lower. Household income is anticipated to collapse in unprecedented terms too. Taken by themselves, these statistics point to midnight in America, and a Reaganesque victory for the Democratic nominee.
Rest - https://outline.com/L5TNKy
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Originally Posted by jimnyc
