Big, If True

[Kathianne]

https://pjmedia.com/instapundit/407828/

OCTOBER 19, 2020


OKAY, THIS IS BIG, IF TRUE:

If the electorate is really R+1, it’s a Trump landslide. Here’s the Gallup report. At the very least, this suggests that the polls this year are in uncertain territory. But don’t get cocky.

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Posted by Glenn Reynolds at 2:39 pm

[jimnyc]

https://pjmedia.com/instapundit/407828/

Some of the comments I like:

After being in a really deep funk for a few weeks over the looming Biden victory the media is proclaiming, I'm starting to allow myself a bit of hope. Because, just about every single indicator except the national preference polls shows a Trump victory. Could all the normal, historic indicators be so completely wrong, and only these polls right? Then when you consider Democrat pollster John Zogby outright declaring the other polls are deliberately skewed heavily Democrat, well maybe this isn't the dawning of the apocalypse after all.

Let's not allow the fake media, including RCP, to ignore how far off they were in Trump's approval numbers in 2016 vs. his percentage of the vote. The RCP average was 37.5% on election day, with Reuters the highest at 43%. He won 46% of the vote. Rasmussen has him today at 48%. A recent Zogby poll had him at 51%.

I've looked at a few dissections of some polls that show things really lopsided in weight (ie, 25% republican, 38% dem, etc), which I don't think quite represents the reality in the makeup of the final vote proportion. In fact, wasn't this one of the problems in 2016 as well, the underweight of republican voters? Have they learned nothing in 4 years?

You'd think the pollsters would want to maintain a modicum of credibility, but this is truly ridiculous. It goes beyond just incompetence at this point, it's a simultaneous effort between the pollsters, the left, the media, the tech giants, etc. Are all trying to will Biden's victory into reality. It's the Green Lantern theory of winning elections -- if only we will it enough, it will come true.

And a factual reminder of 2016 and their polls. Pay attention to the part where they discuss poll numbers and double digit leads for Hillary, winning every battleground state. It's the same thing this go 'round. They could be right this time, who knows...