POLITICS Published January 22, 2023 5:52pm ESTMajor Social Security trust funds could be tapped out by 2033: CBO
Social Security's major trust funds could be exhausted by 2033, resulting in reduced benefit payments
By Eric Revell FOXBusiness
The CBO's analysis found that if the projected gap between the outlays from the trust funds and the revenue they receive happens as forecast, the balance of the trust funds would hit zero in 2033 and the Social Security Administration wouldn't be able to pay out full retirement benefits as they come due.
Specifically, the CBO found that Old-Age and Survivors Insurance Trust Fund would be exhausted in 2033 and the Disability Insurance Trust Fund would be exhausted in 2048. If the two trust funds were combined, the exhaustion date would come in 2033.
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It found that if Social Security benefits were limited to what's payable from annual tax revenues, benefit payments would be about 23% smaller than scheduled benefits in 2034. The gap would rise as time goes on with payable benefits being 35% smaller by 2096.
Under current law, there is no formula for reducing Social Security benefits to what is payable based on payroll tax revenue, so there is some uncertainty over what the SSA would do and whether lawmakers would respond with reforms before the trust funds become exhausted.
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In the CBO's analysis of the scenario in which Social Security benefits were limited to what's payable based on incoming revenue, it found that younger age cohorts would see the biggest change to their initial benefits and lifetime benefits because they generally won't begin receiving payments until after the exhaustion of the trust funds:
Cohorts of beneficiaries born in the 1950s and 1960s would see little to no change to their initial benefits while their lifetime benefits would be reduced by 9% and 19%, respectively.
Cohorts of beneficiaries born in the 1970s, 1980s, and 1990s would see initial benefits cut by 24%, 27% and 28%; while lifetime benefits would be reduced by 26%, 27% and 27%, respectively.