goods pile up in as ression nears - worst since the 1930s? (merged)

[truthmatters]

Talk of Worst Recession Since the 1930s
By DAN DORFMAN
November 12, 2007


After what Los Angeles money manager Arnold Silver called "a brutal three days," the question is: What now for the market?

A Wall Street superstar this year who runs Balestra Capital Partners, Jim Melcher, says he's "worried about a recession. Not a normal one, but a very bad one. The worst since the 1930s. I expect we'll see clear signs of it in six months with a dramatic slowdown in the gross domestic product."

Balestra Capital, a $350 million New York hedge fund, was up 3% for the past three market sessions, when the Dow Jones Industrials, spearheaded by widespread declines in financial stocks and fears of more billion-dollar-plus asset write-downs, tumbled more than 677 points, or about 4.5%. The Nasdaq fared worse, skidding about 7%, triggered by across-the-board declines in those fast-stepping technology stocks.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

http://www.nysun.com/article/66268

[truthmatters]

http://www.reuters.com/article/reute...46297620071112


People are not buying and this could be a bleak christmas.

[darin]

I think it's a little sad people have (no pun intended) bought into the lie we have to 'buy stuff' for people, simply because it's Christmas. :-/

Christmas isn't about 'giving' any longer...it's about 'buying'.

I know - that's an off-topic editorial on society. Sorry.

[truthmatters]

People here dont like to talk about the economy, I wonder why?

[darin]

I do! The economy is working fine for me...it'd be working a little better if Democrats would stop trying to take my money.

[truthmatters]

I will take that to mean you only care about yourself. You will care when the full impact is felt from the policy which wraught this on America. When you ignore the abuses of corporations on the unsuspecting American puplic and allow them to be used as pawns in a system they are used to trusting to protect them this is what you get. Your kids will have some questions for you later in life as to why you allowed their future prosperity to be raped.

[darin]

I will take that to mean you only care about yourself.

That's a ridiculous conclusion.

You will care when the full impact is felt from the policy which wraught this on America. When you ignore the abuses of corporations on the unsuspecting American puplic and allow them to be used as pawns in a system they are used to trusting to protect them this is what you get. Your kids will have some questions for you later in life as to why you allowed their future prosperity to be raped.

Can we make a rule against hyperbole and Hysteria and hysterics and alliteration and drama and rhetoric? If we make such rules, would you ever post anything?

[hjmick]

Doom and gloom, doom and gloom...

[truthmatters]

Oh I see.

The facts are doom and gloom but Bush lies about WMDs and AQ ties were just fine. Fear ,Fear , Fear. Its all the R party has left.

These are facts people. These are the REAL numbers our economy is facing.




Unsold goods are piling up in warehouses as the housing meltdown and soaring oil prices strain consumers, raising fears that already glum fourth-quarter growth prospects may tip toward recession.

Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke warned last week that economic growth would slow from the third quarter's surprisingly strong 3.9 percent annual rate. But recent data on inventories suggests the slowdown may be even more severe than the central bank has anticipated.

Wholesale inventories rose 0.8 percent in September, far greater than the 0.2 percent gain that analysts had expected, according to government data released last week. That will likely boost third-quarter growth even more, but take a toll on the current period as businesses work off the unsold goods.

The Institute for Supply Management's closely watched report on manufacturers told a similar story for October. ISM's survey, released earlier this month, showed that manufacturers were increasingly worried about customers' inventory levels, with stockpiles growing in a wide range of sectors, from plastics and rubber products to food and tobacco.

"The main source of concern at this point is how this inventory build will unwind in the fourth quarter," Merrill Lynch analyst David Rosenberg wrote in a note to clients.

Rosenberg estimated that revised third-quarter GDP data will show an extra $18 billion in inventory. An equal amount may be erased from the fourth quarter, which would take his GDP forecast "perilously close to flat, or even negative."

[Abbey Marie]

Doom and gloom, doom and gloom...

My thoughts exactly.

That, and I am, as always, enjoying planning my gift-giving to my loved ones for Christmas.

[Abbey Marie]

Oh I see.

The facts are doom and gloom but Bush lies about WMDs and AQ ties were just fine. Fear ,Fear , Fear. Its all the R party has left.
These are facts people. These are the REAL numbers our economy is facing.




Unsold goods are piling up in warehouses as the housing meltdown and soaring oil prices strain consumers, raising fears that already glum fourth-quarter growth prospects may tip toward recession.

Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke warned last week that economic growth would slow from the third quarter's surprisingly strong 3.9 percent annual rate. But recent data on inventories suggests the slowdown may be even more severe than the central bank has anticipated.

Wholesale inventories rose 0.8 percent in September, far greater than the 0.2 percent gain that analysts had expected, according to government data released last week. That will likely boost third-quarter growth even more, but take a toll on the current period as businesses work off the unsold goods.

The Institute for Supply Management's closely watched report on manufacturers told a similar story for October. ISM's survey, released earlier this month, showed that manufacturers were increasingly worried about customers' inventory levels, with stockpiles growing in a wide range of sectors, from plastics and rubber products to food and tobacco.

"The main source of concern at this point is how this inventory build will unwind in the fourth quarter," Merrill Lynch analyst David Rosenberg wrote in a note to clients.

Rosenberg estimated that revised third-quarter GDP data will show an extra $18 billion in inventory. An equal amount may be erased from the fourth quarter, which would take his GDP forecast "perilously close to flat, or even negative."

But sweetie, you are the one who is engaged in fear-mongering. In this case, trying to scare us into believing that our economy is all but collapsing.

[truthmatters]

Telling the truth is not fearmongering.

Telling lies is fear mongering.

Now tell me how many WMDs and AQ ties were found in Iraq?

Now tell me how many foreclosers there were in the last year over the previous year?

[Mr. P]

People are waiting for the sales...Retailers have created this 'sale' monster every year and now the public has finally caught on. People will buy, but NOT at full retail when they know the sale is coming...Hide an watch.

[truthmatters]

So you think its just the consumer holdig back for sales?

That is all this forecloseur, inventory glut is huh?

[hjmick]

Oh I see.

The facts are doom and gloom but Bush lies about WMDs and AQ ties were just fine. Fear ,Fear , Fear. Its all the R party has left.

These are facts people. These are the REAL numbers our economy is facing.




Unsold goods are piling up in warehouses as the housing meltdown and soaring oil prices strain consumers, raising fears that already glum fourth-quarter growth prospects may tip toward recession.

Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke warned last week that economic growth would slow from the third quarter's surprisingly strong 3.9 percent annual rate. But recent data on inventories suggests the slowdown may be even more severe than the central bank has anticipated.

Wholesale inventories rose 0.8 percent in September, far greater than the 0.2 percent gain that analysts had expected, according to government data released last week. That will likely boost third-quarter growth even more, but take a toll on the current period as businesses work off the unsold goods.

The Institute for Supply Management's closely watched report on manufacturers told a similar story for October. ISM's survey, released earlier this month, showed that manufacturers were increasingly worried about customers' inventory levels, with stockpiles growing in a wide range of sectors, from plastics and rubber products to food and tobacco.

"The main source of concern at this point is how this inventory build will unwind in the fourth quarter," Merrill Lynch analyst David Rosenberg wrote in a note to clients.

Rosenberg estimated that revised third-quarter GDP data will show an extra $18 billion in inventory. An equal amount may be erased from the fourth quarter, which would take his GDP forecast "perilously close to flat, or even negative."

We may very well be heading for a recession, but that happens. It may very well affect how people buy this holiday season. I just choose not to wallow in the mire. The economy may slow, we may end up in a recession, but guess what? It's happened before, it will happen again. In my lifetime it has happened more than once. It will recover, and we will all survive.

No, you don't "see". You can't "see" because you can't get past your blind hatred for a man you've never met long enough to not invoke his name in any discussion you have and lay the blame on him, which is ultimately where you will steer this thread, and that's fine, I'm okay with that. Really. I'm not overly thrilled with how his tenure has turned out myself.

As for your WMD/AQ statement, all I can say is, I for one never believed Iraq had any ties whatsoever with Al Queda. To the issue of WMDs, the administration and the intelligence agencies were wrong. It happens. But make sure you thank Saddam for clearing the issue up for everyone, because we all know we should have just taken his word for it that they no longer existed. Oh, and thank all of the Democrats who voted to give Bush the power to use force in Iraq.

Yeah, it's all Bush's fault.