Basically a tie. Historically the Dems are way ahead at this point in time. The Republicans come from behind in late Sept, early October. It will be an interesting fall, no pun intended.

http://rasmussenreports.com/public_c..._tracking_poll

Daily Presidential Tracking Poll
Friday, August 08, 2008

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Friday again shows Barack Obama attracting 44% of the vote while and John McCain earns 43%. When "leaners" are included, it’s Obama 47% and McCain 46%. With leaners, the candidates have been within one point of each other for eight straight days (see recent daily results). Tracking Polls are released at 9:30 a.m. Eastern Time each day...