OPINION
Trump’s erratic Iran policy careens toward becoming Obama 2.0
by Philip Klein
| September 12, 2019 08:25 AM
When John Bolton was ousted as national security adviser, I noted that it was great news for fans of Barack Obama’s Iran policy. Some thought I was exaggerating, but then on Wednesday we got this Bloomberg report that with Bolton gone, Trump was looking to give money to Iran to induce a leader of the terrorist regime, Hassan Rouhani, to meet with him:
"President Donald Trump discussed easing sanctions on Iran to help secure a meeting with Iranian President Hassan Rouhani later this month, prompting then-National Security Advisor John Bolton to argue forcefully against such a step, according to three people familiar with the matter.
After an Oval Office meeting on Monday when the idea came up, Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin voiced his support for the move as a way to restart negotiations with Iran, some of the people said. Later in the day, Trump decided to oust Bolton, whose departure was announced Tuesday."
This development is not surprising to those who have been following the administration’s erratic Iran policy. For all the headlines that were generated about Trump pulling out of Obama’s Iran deal and ratcheting up sanctions, thanks to intense lobbying by Mnunchin, Trump has stopped well short of following through on his promise of “maximum pressure” by waiving some key sanctions. Most worrisome, Trump has repeatedly granted waivers for “civilian” nuclear cooperation. This has helped keep Obama’s nuclear deal warm for a potential Democratic successor to revive it.
Now, Trump desperately wants to meet with Rouhani, and is willing to ease up on the economic pressure campaign that has been put on Iran. We’ve gone from the possibility of a meeting under certain conditions, to a willingness to meet without preconditions, to a situation in which it seems increasingly likely that Trump is going to capitulate to Iran and meet the regime’s conditions for a meeting.
At least in Obama’s case, it could be argued that the administration was consistent. They believed a policy of appeasing Iran would strengthen moderates, and reorient the Middle East, and they were hostile toward traditional U.S. allies in the region — the Arab states and Israel.
In Trump’s case, however, his Iran policy is all over the place. He decided to pull out of the Iran deal, but then short arm the “maximum pressure” campaign, and now wants to offer concessions in exchange for a meeting that would be a diplomatic coup for Iran without doing anything to advance U.S. interests. It’s unclear why Trump wanted to pull out of the deal in the first place if this is how he followed through.
There are multiple possible explanations for this vacillation. One is that Trump has competing impulses on foreign policy — wanting to seem tough, wanting to avoid conflict. The other is that he has advisers pulling him in different directions — hawks, non-interventionists who portray any toughness with Iran as a prelude to war, and those like Mnuchin who are sympathetic to Obama’s policies.
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