Riots in Egypt

[Gaffer]

I bet iran's finger prints are all over this.

[Gaffer]

Just doesn't look like a few people having a demonstration to me.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20110127...20110127181356

CAIRO (AFP) – Protests raged in Egypt for a third straight day Thursday as pro-democracy activists, galvanised by the return of dissident Mohamed ElBaradei, vowed to step up efforts to oust President Hosni Mubarak.

ElBaradei, a Nobel laureate and former chief of the UN nuclear watchdog, arrived from Vienna Thursday evening in Cairo, where according to his brother he will join mass protests planned after weekly Muslim prayers on Friday.

"It is a critical time in the life of Egypt. I have come to participate with the Egyptian people," said ElBaradei, a vocal critic of Mubarak, as he left Cairo airport.

Earlier in Vienna he told reporters he was ready to "lead the transition" in Egypt if asked.

"If people, in particularly young people, if they want me to lead the transition I will not let them down. My priority right now is to see a new Egypt and to see a new Egypt through peaceful transition," he said.

His arrival came on the third straight day of angry nationwide protests, which have built into the largest uprising in three decades, during which seven people have been killed -- five protesters and two policemen -- and more than 100 injured.

A security official told AFP that around 1,000 protesters had been arrested since the protests began.

While a heavy security clamp Thursday prevented protesters from massing in the centre of Cairo as they did Tuesday and Wednesday, violent clashes erupted in the cities of Suez and Ismailiya, and in a Sinai town where a protester was shot dead by police, according to witnesses.

[Kathianne]

I bet iran's finger prints are all over this.

I think it's a combination of real corrupt government, Islamic extreme interference, now the Muslim Brotherhood's on the bandwagon, the two are connectible. It's the connection with Muslim Brotherhood that cements the Iranian component:

http://pajamasmedia.com/tatler/2011/...m-brotherhood/

ElBaradei: friend of the Muslim Brotherhood

If the Egyptian unrest was happening in a number of other Middle Eastern states, particularly Syria and Iran, a resulting revolution would likely lead to a better government than the one that had fallen. But that’s not so much the case in Egypt. There are pro-democracy forces there, but there are also very strong Islamist forces there, and while the latter don’t have the numbers of the former, they probably do have one quality that will enable them in the midst of the chaos: Ruthlessness.

That in mind, it’s very much worth keeping an eye on Mohamed ElBaradei. The former UN nuclear weapons cop is in Egypt, under house arrest, and setting himself up as the democratic opposition leader to counter Mubarak. But in an article attempting to make ElBaradei seem like a decent alternative to the current Egyptian ruler, Bruce Reidel discloses the following:

Egypt’s new opposition leader, former International Atomic Energy Agency head Mohamed ElBaradei, has formed a loose alliance with the Brotherhood because he knows it is the only opposition group that can mobilize masses of Egyptians, especially the poor. He says he can work with it to change Egypt. Many scholars of political Islam also judge the Brotherhood is the most reasonable face of Islamic politics in the Arab world today. Skeptics fear ElBaradei will be swept along by more radical forces.

ElBaradei is a radical himself to some extent. During his time with the International Atomic Energy Agency, he oftentimes served as an apologist for Iran’s nuclear program. He hasn’t shown himself to be a friend of the United States. The “loose alliance” he has established with the Muslim Brotherhood, the ideological grandfather to al Qaeda, is a mile-wide red flag that if he succeeds Mubarak, Egypt will probably fall out of alliance with the US and Israel and will likely fall into Iran’s orbit.

For their part, the mullahs are greeting the Egpytian unrest with open arms.

Update: Robert Gibbs, outgoing WH spokesman, is talking up ElBaradei in the press briefing, but stopped short of endorsing him as an alternative to Mubarak. This White House must tread very very carefully here. ElBaradei may be a “Nobel laureate” as Gibbs said, but that award was, like the Nobel given to Jimmy Carter three years earlier, largely a political award given to express disdain for George W. Bush and his wartime policies. The notion that ElBaradei did anything to make the world more peaceful is ludicrous.

[NightTrain]

Good point, Hussein Obama and ElBaradei already have common ground with undeserved Nobel prizes and muslim connections.

I'm still hoping that the upheaval forces modernization in the region.

[Gaffer]

I'm not expecting anything good to come from this uprising. ElBaradei will get into power and be subject to the brotherhood. They will establish a democracy and then the brotherhood and other groups will get themselves voted in and take over, making it a theocratic government like iran, turkey and lebanon. It will all become part of the iranian caliphate in the next 20 years.

[revelarts]

...They will establish a democracy and then the brotherhood and other groups will get themselves voted in and take over, making it a theocratic government like iran, turkey and lebanon. It will all become part of the iranian caliphate in the next 20 years.

the brotherhoods influence is going to be there no mater who's in power after this probably. But If the the younger secularist Egyptians can get there stuff together they may be able to hold out for some continuing reforms.
From the reports I've seen the people have been incredibly surgical in there protest. ANd the military has been very restrained , so far, and even freindly with the people. I'd like to hope that if something happens here that the military here will decide NOT to attack the U.S. people.

But I doubt you'll see a Iran/Egypt Califh.
the Iranians are Shia and Egypt is primarily Sunni so there's not going to be much mingling love there.

[revelarts]

Mubariks speech sounded like half for the candidates for president here in the U.S.

More Jobs..
We care about the poor...
Economic Change isa Coming for us all...
We will restore our regular rights...
I've worked hard for this country for many Years...
The other guy caused the problem will kick um out...
be patient and give me your support...
We are strong...
God bless our country...

[red states rule]

Mubariks speech sounded like half for the candidates for president here in the U.S.

More Jobs..
We care about the poor...
Economic Change isa Coming for us all...
We will restore our regular rights...
I've worked hard for this country for many Years...
The other guy caused the problem will kick um out...
be patient and give me your support...
We are strong...
God bless our country...

Well when he loses his job over here he can get a show on MSNBC or NPR

[abso]

I'm not expecting anything good to come from this uprising. ElBaradei will get into power and be subject to the brotherhood. They will establish a democracy and then the brotherhood and other groups will get themselves voted in and take over, making it a theocratic government like iran, turkey and lebanon. It will all become part of the iranian caliphate in the next 20 years.

lets hope that this prediction will never become reality

i hate el baradei and i will never vote for him or the islamic brotherhood, but i am not sure that the poor people will do the same, they may all vote for anyone to change the regime that they think are responsible for making them poor.

[texastom]

Hello Abso! I'm new here, but know some of the posters from another board and from another time.... So I hope you don't mind my jumping in to pose a question.

Do you have any issue with Mubarak wanting to take time to step down (assuming he follows through as promised)?

I was living in Korea when they had their last dictator and therefore witnessed their transition from despot to democracy. Therefore, I wonder what you and other Egyptian may think about this.

Do you not believe an orderly transition with true and open elections is better than a disorderly transition? At least with an orderly transition (9 months is not that long), that allows time to the formation of opposing parties and is more likely to insure that there is not a knee-jerk reaction that puts some new despote in power.

When Korea made their transition from despot to democracy, it was announced by their then dictator that he would step down a full 10 months before he did (he only finally agreed to step down in 1987 due to a popular uprising). That allowed for the peaceful and orderly transfer of power.

In my opinion, the Korean model should be followed in Egypt as just about every time there has been no orderly transition, the country going through the transition has ended up with autocratic regimes that are as bad if not worse than what came before them.

Is it possible for Egypt to make an orderly transition?

[abso]

Hello Abso! I'm new here, but know some of the posters from another board and from another time.... So I hope you don't mind my jumping in to pose a question.

Do you have any issue with Mubarak wanting to take time to step down (assuming he follows through as promised)?

I was living in Korea when they had their last dictator and therefore witnessed their transition from despot to democracy. Therefore, I wonder what you and other Egyptian may think about this.

Do you not believe an orderly transition with true and open elections is better than a disorderly transition? At least with an orderly transition (9 months is not that long), that allows time to the formation of opposing parties and is more likely to insure that there is not a knee-jerk reaction that puts some new despote in power.

When Korea made their transition from despot to democracy, it was announced by their then dictator that he would step down a full 10 months before he did (he only finally agreed to step down in 1987 due to a popular uprising). That allowed for the peaceful and orderly transfer of power.

In my opinion, the Korean model should be followed in Egypt as just about every time there has been no orderly transition, the country going through the transition has ended up with autocratic regimes that are as bad if not worse than what came before them.

Is it possible for Egypt to make an orderly transition?

No i dont have any problems with him staying in power for the next 7 months, i believe that he must stay in the next 7 months to stabilize the country, if he stepped down now the country will burn, the every party will want to jump into power, the whole country may fall into civil war, none can predict what will happen, so i dont prefer to take that chance, i prefer to leave him in power to preserve the country for the next leadership and government.

[Kathianne]

Good point, Hussein Obama and ElBaradei already have common ground with undeserved Nobel prizes and muslim connections.

I'm still hoping that the upheaval forces modernization in the region.

Real modernization reforms would have to have a leadership core of really educated reformers. That's lacking here. Personally I thing El Baradei is a tool, watched it throughout the pre-Iraq invasion weapons inspections. He's one of those from appearances that thinks peace at all costs and that 'all those of lower stations need government to take care of them.' So he, a very educated person is basically controlled by mullahs and such, whether he's religious or not, there are connections with the poor.

Sad to say that very educated Catholics often fall under this type of delusion, that the poor are righteous and deserve to be 'empowered.' Now they don't mean actually running things, like a CEO, but it feels so good to speak of social justice and being 'Christ-like.' Which is part of the reason so many are liberals, regardless of issues like abortion.

This uprising didn't spring from the Muslim Brotherhood, in fact they were pretty late getting on board, however they have the organization to actually keep things going, possibly until Mubarek is gone.

[Kathianne]

Just found this and it's very interesting. PJ Media may be coming into it's own:

http://pajamasmedia.com/blog/egypt-whats-happening-now/

Egypt: What’s Happening Now (Continuously Updated)
An important announcement is coming shortly, says Egyptian state-run TV. (Also read Michael Totten for more coverage of the situation.)
January 28, 2011 - by Josh Shahryar
Share |
UPDATE (4:59p EST): There is a strong likelihood, being discussed right now, that President Hosni Mubarak may have already left the country. He was due to appear on TV, which had been announced hours ago, yet no word came of that. Instead, the parliament speaker, who is first in line to succeed the president, appeared on TV and said there will be an announcement shortly. Speculation is that if Mubarak were in the country, the speaker Ahmad Fathi Sorour wouldn’t have had to make the announcement and Mubarak would have appeared on TV himself. The president’s wife, son, and a grandchild left the country for Europe two days ago.
So far, the Army, which was mobilized by the government a few hours ago, has not directly stepped in to stop the protests. This is good news for protesters who have beaten back the riot police and other security forces for the most part, and are in virtually uncontested control of major parts of Cairo and other cities. The Army is simply securing important government buildings and broadcasting facilities in Cairo and other cities.

Protesters remain on the streets and the chaos continues as the world awaits word from the Egyptian government.

———————-

UPDATE (4:35p EST): Egyptian Parliament Speaker Ahmad Fathi Sorour appeared on state TV and said: “An important matter will be announced shortly.” No further details.

Protests continue. On the other side of the world, reports suggest that in Caracas, Venezuela, a group of protesting Arabs and Egyptians have entered and taken over the Egyptian embassy there.

———–

UPDATE (4:11p EST): Protesters also remain out on the streets in Suez, and several buildings are on fire there as well. Al Jazeera now confirms 11 dead, 150 injured and 20 critically injured in that city. That brings the total number of deaths that can be confirmed for today to 12. Sources are claiming as many as 1,000 people have been arrested all over the country, but there is no way to confirm that number.
There are reports that influential businessmen and even some government officials, many close to President Mubarak, have boarded planes and left the country.
The government is trying to solidify its control on important buildings in Cairo, including broadcasting stations and ministries, by sending army tanks there. Tanks were also spotted heading towards the U.S. and British Embassies.
Earlier, White House Press Secretary Robert Gibbs told reporters that the U.S. is reconsidering its “assistance posture” to Cairo. In the meantime, Vodafone, which disconnected phone services and internet last night under government pressure, is feeling the heat as protesters are reportedly attacking its offices in Cairo and other cities.
——————-

UPDATE (3:45p EST): There is absolute chaos. Some are claiming the death toll in Suez is as high as almost a dozen, and over a hundred injured. The death toll in Cairo still stands at 1, but that number might rise as night falls....

[Kathianne]

I don't have television, but it appears that Mubarak is speaking:

http://pajamasmedia.com/blog/egypt-whats-happening-now/

[Kathianne]

I was able to catch the very end on al Jazeera live, seems he is saying that he'll stay, but new government tomorrow. So he's trying to blame the legislators, which probably is not going to washing.