Originally Posted by
Russ
I realize that I am late to this discussion, but to me it looked like the chemical attack was a deliberate response to Trump's announcement that America would probably be pulling out of the Syria conflict. Assad, possibly with prompting from Putin or from Iran, decided to do the chemical attack as a throwdown toward Trump. I think that Assad thought there would be no response, which on the world stage would be the equivalent of giving Assad/Putin/Iran permission to use chemical weapons all they wanted after America moved out.
Trump had three options, in my opinion:
1) No response - This is sometimes called the 'Obama response' or the 'Spineless response'. Doing nothing prevents any immediate retaliation, but invites more attacks in the future because everyone know you are now spineless. This is like the kid on the playground that gets hit by another kid and never does anything. You can bet another hit is coming.
2) Hyper response - This is the response where you escalate several levels in the hope that your opponent will be sufficiently wounded and shocked that they are afraid to retaliate. The risk is that the opponent isn't wounded or shocked enough, and they just escalate more. This is like the kid on the playground that gets hit by another kid, and responds by breaking the other kids legs. Bad choice here - very dangerous in this case because of the Russian presence.
3) Calculated response - This is where you respond enough to send a message, but not enough to create escalation. I think this was by far the best choice for America here, and I think Trump may have done it. It is key that the strikes were only against Syria, not against Russian forces. It's not a challenge against Putin. I also like the way the strikes specifically targeted chemical weapons. After all, Syria isn't even supposed to have them, and Russia guaranteed that Syria wouldn't have them. It makes it difficult for Putin to manufacture outrage. And maybe the biggest key is bringing in UK and France on the strikes. Now it looks like it is not specifically America that Assad or Putin would be responding to - it is a coalition. And its not a personal challenge from Trump to Putin.
Going back to the kid on the playground analogy, its the equivalent of punching the other kid back just enough that he decides to go elsewhere to find easier targets.
Overall, the worst option would have been the Hyper response, but the No response/Obama response would have been really bad. I think Trump (and Mattis) did a good job of doing the Calculated response.
If we're speculating it's also possible, since Neither Syria or Russia needed Chem weapons to defeat "the rebels"/ISIS/AQ,
that they'd be happy to hear that the U.S was going to pull out. And the only people unhappy would be those that want "regime change" via U.S. forces.
Trump and U.S troops leaving is the last thing the rebels/ISIS/AQ wanted. the last thing that Saudi Arabia, other Arab states, Israel or the oil companies wanted. Heck it's the last thing John McCain, Lindsey Graham, Hillary Clinton, John Kerry, Rex Tillerson, John Bolton, and the usual suspect neo-cons wanted. The regime change backers and/or the "the rebels" could easily set up a chem "attack" and blame Assad just to force Trump to stay in the game. BTW the "Attacks" were in the "rebel" controlled areas, and the reportage is from "the rebels". Not independent sources, nothing confirmed.
Trump did in fact have other options. 1st of all PROVE publicly the details of the crime. that's a start. that'd put Syria and Russia in the worse light. Next follow the constitution and international law. Follow the words of his campaign promises.
the U.S. leaving Syria is exactly what Assad and Russia has wanted from the start. the best thing for them would be to do nothing.
it makes ZERO sense for them to use chemical weapons on anyone.
If we're speculating, that makes more sense objectively speaking IMO.
Last edited by revelarts; 04-16-2018 at 04:10 PM.
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