Coronavirus

[Kathianne]

If this holds, really good news:

https://hotair.com/archives/allahpun...ttening-curve/

Is Seattle Flattening The Curve?
ALLAHPUNDITPosted at 6:01 pm on March 19, 2020

he evidence isn’t conclusive yet, but this is worth watching.


UW Virology
✔
@UWVirology
~2300 tests were reported yesterday from @UWVirology @UWMedicine. Positive rate seems stable. Lab running smoothly the first half of today with lots of results going out. Realtime tracker at https://depts.washington.edu/uwviro/


View image on Twitter
983
2:26 PM - Mar 18, 2020


The key finding there isn’t that there were fewer positives yesterday than the day before. We can’t know that for sure; at the moment, the data from yesterday includes around half as many tests as the day before so naturally we’d expect fewer positives. The key finding is that even if we assume that there were actually twice as many positives yesterday as the graph indicates, that would be roughly equal to the number of positives on Tuesday. In other words, we’re not seeing exponential growth.


The Seattle Times published this graph tracking infections in Washington state today:


Starting on February 28 and continuing all the way through March 14, in each period the new daily number is at least 50 percent greater than the previous total. But then, on March 16, it slows down slightly: Instead of 1,154 cases on March 18 (which is what we’d expect if the 769 cases on March 14 grew by 50 percent over two days), we see 1,012 cases instead. Yesterday’s number of 1,187 infections is an even lower percentage of the previous total, ALTHOUGH those numbers reflect the total only as of 4 p.m. Seattle time yesterday. The final daily number will doubtless end up bigger.


But it would have to end up a *lot* bigger than 1,187 to keep pace with the “previous day + 50 percent” rule. That would project to 1,518 infections by close of business yesterday. If it falls short of that, this will be circumstantial evidence that Washington state is indeed flattening the proverbial curve via mass social distancing efforts.


Which would make sense. They were the site of the first major outbreak in the U.S., at the Life Care Center nursing home. Washington was also the subject of that genomic analysis early this month that pointed strongly towards undetected community spread locally at a moment when most of the rest of the country was taking COVID-19 in stride. They were hunkered down and distancing themselves before most of the rest of us were. It stands to reason that their curve would be the first to flatten out.


Nate Silver is intrigued too:

...

[Kathianne]

[Drummond]

2016 would suit me fine: the year we voted for Brexit !

.. OR .. how about 2019 repeated ? Agonies over Brexit being held up / sabotaged by Labour, sure ... BUT ... if armed with the knowledge of Boris's stonking great victory and a large Commons majority .... worth seeing again !

[Abbey Marie]

If this holds, really good news:

https://hotair.com/archives/allahpun...ttening-curve/

Thanks for finding and posting this.

So, if the scary reactions to this virus, and possibly the virus itself, is just a vast conspiracy, why would a liberal state admit to these positive stats? Hmm.

[Drummond]

Trying to find some other data on this...


--

Updated: Trump Says FDA Approved Anti-Malaria Drug Chloroquine To Test As Coronavirus Treatment

Topline: President Trump said in a Thursday press briefing that chloroquine and hydroxychloroquine, drugs used to treat malaria and severe arthritis, were approved by the Food and Drug Administration to test as a COVID-19 coronavirus treatment, as the number of cases nationwide continues to increase.

The drugs will be used in a clinical trial, according to FDA commissioner Dr. Stephen Hahn, who spoke during the press briefing.
Trump also said that other antiviral medications will be fast-tracked for FDA approval.
"We will collect that data and make the absolute right decisions based upon those data about the safety and efficacy of the treatments,” said Hahn.
Trump also claimed that the White House has “slashed red tape” to speed up approval for vaccines and other treatments.
Trump added that the FDA approved “compassionate use” for a number of patients, which allows very ill patients to use drugs not yet approved by the agency for widespread use.

Rest - https://www.forbes.com/sites/lisette.../#b4edc84303d9

Yes, LBC radio relayed this news to us, here in the UK.

One possible problem of sheer propaganda: should this drug deliver all the benefit hoped for it ... would it be internationally available ?

You see the problem. If by some chance supplies remained in America, or even if America was the 'chief customer' for it .. and, we saw America getting a drug benefit denied to other countries ... this'll promote the other story about an 'America-only' solution being arranged by Trump to the cost of every other country. Some will believe this was the intention all along, that the propaganda was true.

Judging by this link, if I correctly understand the context .... this WILL be only available to Americans !

https://www.cdc.gov/malaria/resource...hloroquine.pdf

Chloroquine (also known as chloroquine phosphate) is an antimalarial medicine. It is available in the United States by prescription only. It is sold under the brand name Aralen, and it is also sold as a generic medicine.

Conversely, if I've misunderstood the context ... will it matter ? The sudden demand for this drug by America will no doubt create a world shortage of it, regardless.

[Kathianne]

Thanks for finding and posting this.

So, if the scary reactions to this virus, and possibly the virus itself, is just a vast conspiracy, why would a liberal state admit to these positive stats? Hmm.

It's math. Once the nursing home happened, people in the vicinity were seriously implementing the protective actions suggested. Social distancing; staying out of crowded areas; washing hands; disinfecting homes, clothes, etc. They embraced the closings necessary, to them it wasn't 'over the top.'

For every person not infected, so are 2 more-then 4 more-then 16 more...Same as how the virus replicates.

That is what those FL beach goers are undermining.

If people would just go get what they really need from the grocery, Costco, Walmart, Target and then go home, they'd be giving the employees their needed space. They'd be giving time for the food, medicines, and yes, paper goods to be replenished. They'd give the manufacturers the ability to let their workers get some rest. Rest is what those working are not getting. Think of the first responders-a group that is in nearly the position of the elderly when it comes to vulnerability to the virus. This would lead to the flattening of the curve.

[Kathianne]

Yes, LBC radio relayed this news to us, here in the UK.

One possible problem of sheer propaganda: should this drug deliver all the benefit hoped for it ... would it be internationally available ?

You see the problem. If by some chance supplies remained in America, or even if America was the 'chief customer' for it .. and, we saw America getting a drug benefit denied to other countries ... this'll promote the other story about an 'America-only' solution being arranged by Trump to the cost of every other country. Some will believe this was the intention all along, that the propaganda was true.

Judging by this link .... this WILL be only available to Americans !

https://www.cdc.gov/malaria/resource...hloroquine.pdf

I'm puzzled, why would you think it will only be available in America? The notice you linked to was by the CDC, an American agency describing the med by the name that is used in US. I posted earlier that Bayer-a huge pharmaceutical here, already said they were donating ton of pills.

I went to look up the UK name for Chloroquine in UK, found this:

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/art...ure-trial.html

if I read this right, it's OTC in UK?

[Abbey Marie]

It's math. Once the nursing home happened, people in the vicinity were seriously implementing the protective actions suggested. Social distancing; staying out of crowded areas; washing hands; disinfecting homes, clothes, etc. They embraced the closings necessary, to them it wasn't 'over the top.'

For every person not infected, so are 2 more-then 4 more-then 16 more...Same as how the virus replicates.

That is what those FL beach goers are undermining.

If people would just go get what they really need from the grocery, Costco, Walmart, Target and then go home, they'd be giving the employees their needed space. They'd be giving time for the food, medicines, and yes, paper goods to be replenished. They'd give the manufacturers the ability to let their workers get some rest. Rest is what those working are not getting. Think of the first responders-a group that is in nearly the position of the elderly when it comes to vulnerability to the virus. This would lead to the flattening of the curve.

Are you you still working?

[Kathianne]

Are you you still working?

I am. Not without trepidation. I'm sort of waiting to see how it goes in the next few days. I'm sort of crazed about keeping the right distance, including saying, "Excuse me, PLEASE!" if not given my personal space while helping someone.

I have some time I could take off, but am waiting to see what happens. They are trying to hire more, so that the rest of us can cut hours if we want, once they can get the stores clean enough and stocked.

I must say if I shopped there I'd never think they were disinfecting as often as they are. It's a monster in those stores, not enough workers.

[Kathianne]

Another bright spot of possible way to neutralize the virus:

https://www.foxnews.com/media/dr-jac...ze-coronavirus

Doctor says he's 3-4 weeks from developing treatment to 'neutralize' coronavirus
By Victor Garcia

Distributed Bio co-founder and CEO Dr. Jacob Glanville revealed on "The Story with Martha MacCallum" Thursday that his company's laboratory is three to four weeks away from engineering a therapeutic antibody to combat the coronavirus.


"What my company is doing is adapting antibodies to recognize and neutralize the novel coronavirus. So this would ... [be] sort of skipping what a vaccine does," Glanville said. "Instead of giving you a vaccine and waiting for it to produce an immune response, we just give you those antibodies right away. And so within about 20 minutes, that patient has the ability to neutralize the virus."


Glanville told MacCallum that once his colleagues are done engineering the antibodies they will send it to the U.S. military before eventually conducting a human study this summer.


"The completed drug is going to go to the USAMRIID [United States Army Medical Research Institute of Infectious Diseases]. So that's the U.S. military and they're gonna be testing it for its ability to neutralize the virus.


"At the same time, that drug was going to go to Charles River Laboratories, which is a international contract research group, which is going to test the safety of that drug," Glanville said. "Both of those pieces of information come together so that we can produce batches, go through some red tape, and then do the first human studies that we'll do on 200 to 600 people in the summer, probably in July."


Glanville said that he believes "social distancing" is working to reduce the spread of the virus, but that medicine is needed to further combat the spread.


"It is definitely helping. We are way safer now than we were a week ago. The social distancing measures slow down the growth of new cases. But the problem is, eventually people have to go back to work. And the coronavirus appears so infectious that we we don't think we're actually gonna be able to just squish out the pandemic just through social distancing," Glanville said. "So eventually we're gonna need medicine because otherwise all the models I'm looking at are guessing that this thing's going to last all year and it could indeed become seasonal with everybody eventually becoming infected."

...

[Kathianne]

Thanks for finding and posting this.

So, if the scary reactions to this virus, and possibly the virus itself, is just a vast conspiracy, why would a liberal state admit to these positive stats? Hmm.

@Abbey another bit of good news I think regarding this possible trend. I heard Dr. Birks answering questions of Bret Baier last evening. She said regarding the results, "I look at this granular..." She then said, "We need to look at this county by county, whether we're talking about numbers up or down."

While there are the selfish folks on the beaches of FL or also on the beaches and in parks of CA, there are also the people in Seattle and NY area. Numbers differ within each area and the real problem with FL is that so many were college kids, many of whom will be flying and near all of whom will be going 'home' among many states. Still, if they return home and are forced to stay in, those possible infections will be contained within that home.

As the numbers on various counties start coming in, those that haven't been cooperating will notice that their area is still rising; while others are falling. We can hope by then the various government entities will have a better handle on who has it and who doesn't or have recovered. Area by area then may have some of the strictures eased? It makes sense with thought. Sort of the opposite of how the contagion spread initially.

[Abbey Marie]

Anecdotally, here in little Delaware, where we as of last night have 30 cases:
People are behaving fairly well, but...
Russ and daughter separately went to a store. Grocery store, and the all-important mega liquor store. The grocery store was pretty calm. The liquor store was craziness. We border Pennsylvania here, and their liquor stores (all state run) were ordered to close. So, the hordes arrived here before ours do the same.

I admit, the prospect of going through all this without wine is scary.

Still cannot get disinfecting wipes or hand sanitizer. Russ just went to Acme to get both, and though it said online it was available, by the time he got there at 7am, no luck.

[Drummond]

I'm puzzled, why would you think it will only be available in America? The notice you linked to was by the CDC, an American agency describing the med by the name that is used in US. I posted earlier that Bayer-a huge pharmaceutical here, already said they were donating ton of pills.

I went to look up the UK name for Chloroquine in UK, found this:

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/art...ure-trial.html

if I read this right, it's OTC in UK?

Interesting ! Thanks for finding that Mail article.

From it:

Meanwhile US President Mr Trump said the drug would be available to sufferers of the virus 'almost immediately', despite not being formally approved by the Food and Drug Administration (FDA).

Access to prescriptions will be expanded so that US health officials can gather data on how patients respond.

The move increased pressure on the UK Government after furious Britons launched a petition calling on No 10 to begin trials of the same drug, available over-the-counter.

Officials banned pharmaceuticals from exporting chloroquine – and a HIV drug – last month, in a bid to protect the UK's stocks of the experimental treatments.

It is unclear how much stock the UK currently has - and the Department of Health has not yet responded to a request from comment by MailOnline tonight.

If Trump keeps his word (I'm sure he will) to make the drug available 'almost immediately', that suggests to me that unless stocks are plentiful, there'll be a run on demand. A recipe for creating shortfalls ?

I note a reference to the drug being available here 'over the counter'. I had no idea ! That may well deal with my concerns ... especially as LBC News is reporting that Boris has just issued a ban on exports of 'certain key drugs, e.g morphine' to the EU (an expansion on the ban mentioned in the article, presumably). Maybe all this will deal with the UK's concerns.

It might ramp up EU concerns about shortfalls, though. Who knows, maybe Trump may get criticism, not from us, but the EU ...

Still, none of this gives cast-iron assurances about supply. I suppose this all adds up to a 'wait & see, hope for the best' scenario in the making.

[Abbey Marie]

Shoot, a number of cases directly in my town now. And a few on the other side, neighboring city. 3 cities in a row with cases and I am in the one sandwiched in between.

I’m sorry, Jim. That is bound to be very stressful. I wish we could all hunker down at Rick’s cabin.

[jimnyc]

I was glad long long ago that I don't live in liberal la la land in California, and then now even more so.

--

Gov. Newsom Orders Everyone in the 'Nation-State' of California to Stay at Home

(CNSNews.com) - Effective Thursday evening, the governor of California has ordered all 40 million residents to stay at home.

"A state as large as ours, a nation state, is many parts," Newsom announced at a news conference on Thursday.

"But at the end of the day, we’re one body. There’s a mutuality and there’s a recognition of our interdependence that requires of this moment, that we direct a statewide order for people to stay at home.

Rest - https://www.cnsnews.com/article/nati...rnia-stay-home