Coronavirus

[Kathianne]

Early, but possibly very good news.

https://www.captainsjournal.com/2020...es-in-america/

The Current Trajectory Of Confirmed Covid-19 Cases In America
BY HERSCHEL SMITH
14 hours, 40 minutes ago
In my ongoing coverage and analysis of Covid-19 in America (updated almost daily), I included a much earlier graph with a curve fit, at the time, exponential and with a very high correlation coefficient. The graph from 3/23 looked like this.



The doubling time was computed as:


ln(2) / 0.2988 = 2.32 days


The graph has been unsettled lately, until last night and today. I have received requests to update the curve. I said I would have to jettison the exponential curve fit and go with a polynomial (see original post), and today I did that. The exponential model was massively over-predicting cases going forward and the correlation coefficient had begun to degrade. The revised curve is below.



There is a remarkable difference. The doubling time depends on where you are on the graph. It’s a third-order polynomial. Currently, the doubling time is 4.1 days, versus the value of 2.32 days computed not too many days ago. The correlation coefficient is very high, and the curve is stable and well-behaved.


Here I am not weighing in on or performing analysis of the reasons for this. There could be many, or only one, or some combination of causes. Some readers may posit “social distancing,” others may point out that the testing rate has change because slightly symptomatic patients are not being tested, others may postulate that herd immunity may be playing a factor (i.e., it’s possible that many millions of Americans have already been exposed to and infected with the virus and had little to no problem with it), and still others may postulate that PPEs, hygiene protocol and the reluctance to go to hospitals may be playing a role (my own daughter, a surgical NP and first assist who also has to spend copious time in the ER) observes that numbers of patients entering hospital care is down.


Again, I am making no claim whatsoever as to reasons for this. I am only mathematically modeling this phenomenon, and I can conclusively say that there is a remarkable difference between doubling time and trajectory today and a week ago.


UPDATE:


Per request, this is a picture of the previous exponential fit versus the polynomial fit. It’s QAD (quick and dirty), with no bells and whistles.

[High_Plains_Drifter]

The problem i see is , they are not even giving the town the infected person is in , Putting everyone at risk .
As that town now has people carrying it around with out knowing it ,

This is Almost the perfect weapon to overthrow the USA ..Just add a EMP and the takeover will be complete in 6 months ,once winter hits again
Let the Hunger Games Begin ,

Yeah I keep looking to see if I can find where the infected person is from. They don't have to give out any names, or even a home address, but the TOWN would be nice to know. Grant Co is a big county. I'd like to know if the person infected here is in Muscoda or some town way down by Dubuque. There's a lot of area between here and there. But, they're not saying, and I agree, I think the public has the right to know what town the infected people are from. I'd like to know the reasoning behind NOT telling us.

[Drummond]

Early, but possibly very good news.

https://www.captainsjournal.com/2020...es-in-america/

The Current Trajectory Of Confirmed Covid-19 Cases In America
BY HERSCHEL SMITH
14 hours, 40 minutes ago
In my ongoing coverage and analysis of Covid-19 in America (updated almost daily), I included a much earlier graph with a curve fit, at the time, exponential and with a very high correlation coefficient. The graph from 3/23 looked like this.



The doubling time was computed as:


ln(2) / 0.2988 = 2.32 days


The graph has been unsettled lately, until last night and today. I have received requests to update the curve. I said I would have to jettison the exponential curve fit and go with a polynomial (see original post), and today I did that. The exponential model was massively over-predicting cases going forward and the correlation coefficient had begun to degrade. The revised curve is below.



There is a remarkable difference. The doubling time depends on where you are on the graph. It’s a third-order polynomial. Currently, the doubling time is 4.1 days, versus the value of 2.32 days computed not too many days ago. The correlation coefficient is very high, and the curve is stable and well-behaved.


Here I am not weighing in on or performing analysis of the reasons for this. There could be many, or only one, or some combination of causes. Some readers may posit “social distancing,” others may point out that the testing rate has change because slightly symptomatic patients are not being tested, others may postulate that herd immunity may be playing a factor (i.e., it’s possible that many millions of Americans have already been exposed to and infected with the virus and had little to no problem with it), and still others may postulate that PPEs, hygiene protocol and the reluctance to go to hospitals may be playing a role (my own daughter, a surgical NP and first assist who also has to spend copious time in the ER) observes that numbers of patients entering hospital care is down.


Again, I am making no claim whatsoever as to reasons for this. I am only mathematically modeling this phenomenon, and I can conclusively say that there is a remarkable difference between doubling time and trajectory today and a week ago.


UPDATE:


Per request, this is a picture of the previous exponential fit versus the polynomial fit. It’s QAD (quick and dirty), with no bells and whistles.

Yes, I'd be 'guardedly hopeful' that what you're seeing is good news for the virus's spread.

The UK's position is different. Our stats are copying Italy, the trend nearly identical, at least for now. We're bracing ourselves for an approaching 'tsunami' of infections needing treatment.

The official approach, too, is rather more pessimistic than what we're seeing of America's. We have a review of our position due in two weeks from now, but speculation is strong that we may not relax our lockdown fully for another SIX MONTHS.

We're being prepared for such an eventuality. Thinking here is that, if/when a relaxation of our lockdown occurs, it'll need to be phased, to see if the steps taken are merited, or, provably too premature.

Boris has arranged for every UK address to receive an official letter in the next few days. Reportedly, it warns that our lockdown may become MORE draconian still in the coming days and weeks.

James O'Brien, on LBC, in an anti-Trump tirade, 'reminded' his listeners that 'Trump said the virus problem would be over by Easter'.

[Kathianne]

Yes, I'd be 'guardedly hopeful' that what you're seeing is good news for the virus's spread.

The UK's position is different. Our stats are copying Italy, the trend nearly identical, at least for now. We're bracing ourselves for an approaching 'tsunami' of infections needing treatment.

The official approach, too, is rather more pessimistic than what we're seeing of America's. We have a review of our position due in two weeks from now, but speculation is strong that we may not relax our lockdown fully for another SIX MONTHS.

We're being prepared for such an eventuality. Thinking here is that, if/when a relaxation of our lockdown occurs, it'll need to be phased, to see if the steps taken are merited, or, provably too premature.

Boris has arranged for every UK address to receive an official letter in the next few days. Reportedly, it warns that our lockdown may become MORE draconian still in the coming days and weeks.

James O'Brien, on LBC, in an anti-Trump tirade, 'reminded' his listeners that 'Trump said the virus problem would be over by Easter'.

They don't get to vote for Trump, so he won't care. I don't think most here are surprised, the left jumps on his talk, the right doesn't care. Those in the middle just get distressed at the extremes and find themselves flinging back and forth in support and distancing on his choices.

[High_Plains_Drifter]

UPS just dropped off my oxycodone refill. It's still laying on the back porch. I'll treat it as though it IS infected and give it the whole treatment, spray it with disinfectant before I touch it, then empty the bottle into one of mine, then throw the bottle away, then WASH MY HANDS GOOD.

Far as I'm concerned, that is the ONLY way I'll catch the shit, is TOUCH something that's INFECTED.

Just sprayed it down with disinfectant, going to let it lay there for a few days.

[High_Plains_Drifter]

Here ya go... WHY I HATE Madison, WI. The ASS CLOWNS over at the UW just can NOT QUIT with their STUPID leftist games...

----------------------

U. of Wisconsin: Blaming Chinese Virus on China Is “Racist”

Administrators at the University of Wisconsin, Madison condemned a series of “anti-China” chalk messages that appeared this week. One chalk message referred to the “Chinese virus” while another blamed the ongoing pandemic on the Chinese government. The University’s chancellor referred to the chalking as “racist behavior.”

According to a report by Campus Reform, the University of Wisconsin, Madison is fighting back against a series of anonymous “anti-China” chalk messages that appeared on campus this week.

In a statement, University of Wisconsin, Madison Chancellor Rebecca Black argued that China is not responsible for the pandemic. She went on to suggest that the chalk messages were “racist.”

BULL SHIT!!

“No one person, country, or ethnicity created this pandemic — disease does not discriminate,” Chancellor Blank stated in the email to all students and faculty. “We want to be clear that racist behaviors or stereotyping of any kind are not tolerated at UW-Madison — no matter if we are online, passing others in public, or quarantined at home.”

SORRY, "Blank," but you don't get to DICTATE to ANYONE what they do when NOT ON YOUR SICKENING LEFTIST INDOCTRINATION CENTER'S grounds... FUCK OFF.

https://www.breitbart.com/tech/2020/...vvDvKma7kV5rdA

This shit just ticks me off. It's why Wisconsin has it's GRAND share of LEFTIST ASS CLOWNS. They come out of that BRAIN WASHING UW campus.

[Black Diamond]

Are Spaniards angry about the Spanish flu being called that?

[Kathianne]

Another very positive sign, Seattle flattening the curve?

https://hotair.com/archives/allahpun...attened-curve/

Signs Emerging That Seattle Has Flattened The Curve
ALLAHPUNDITPosted at 11:31 am on March 30, 2020

I remember a researcher who’s tracking the genomes of strains in the Seattle area saying earlier this month, “January 1 in Wuhan was March 1 in Seattle.” Washington state could experience the same disaster that China did, he said — if nothing was done urgently to mitigate the disease’s spread. But something was done. Seattle was among the first places in the U.S. to encourage stringent social distancing.


Result: Wuhan had to be locked down on January 23 in an urgent attempt to stop the virus’s spread. Whereas Seattle is now 29 days removed from March 1 and the contagion has slowed, based on the available (and incomplete) evidence. Hospitals there aren’t overrun. There’s no Wuhan scenario brewing for the moment. And there might not be one if people there continue to hunker down this month.


How easily can Seattle be replicated elsewhere, though?


Deaths are not rising as fast as they are in other states. Dramatic declines in street traffic show that people are staying home. Hospitals have so far not been overwhelmed. And preliminary statistical models provided to public officials in Washington State suggest that the spread of the virus has slowed in the Seattle area in recent days.


While each infected person was spreading the virus to an average of 2.7 other people earlier in March, that number appears to have dropped, with one projection suggesting that it was now down to 1.4…


With so many states now deep in crisis, the signs of provisional success in the Seattle area offer a lesson for other cities and regions that are just beginning to see the onset of the coronavirus: Early and aggressive action to contain the spread may help lower the trajectory of a virus that could otherwise overwhelm health systems.


...

There’s another story of social-distancing success on the wires today but I don’t know how replicable that is either. Remember that one-mile “containment zone” that Andrew Cuomo ordered for a hot spot in New Rochelle? Locals were able to go in and out, but teams of medical workers were sent in to test residents aggressively for coronavirus while the National Guard was tasked with deep cleaning spaces and handing out food. Three weeks later, New Rochelle appears to have flattened the curve too as nearby NYC is exploding with infections. Residents have become true believers in social distancing — and widespread testing:


“In the beginning, it felt like house arrest,” said Samuel Heilman, a New Rochelle resident whose family was among those ordered to self-quarantine on March 3. The families had all attended the same synagogue, Young Israel of New Rochelle, as a lawyer who was the first person diagnosed with the coronavirus in the community.


“In effect, it felt like we were being punished,” Mr. Heilman said. “But the punishment turned out to be a blessing in disguise. This is really a case of perspective.”…


Westchester County has adopted an aggressive testing philosophy: More than 29,000 of the county’s less than one million residents have been tested, according to the county Department of Health, with 7,187 positive for Covid-19 as of Friday. Statewide, about 138,000 people have been tested.


NYC has eight times the population of New Rochelle but has done only twice as many tests. Over the past four days, there have been just 38 new cases in New Rochelle. All we need to do now is set up a containment zone for every hot spot in America and test the hell out of them to determine who’s sick and needs to self-quarantine and who isn’t. Piece of cake.


Or, alternately, we could be disciplined this month about social distancing. Which not all of us are being:

...

and on a personal point:

One more data point for you and everyone else who might be in a state right now, like Arizona, that’s taking its time to close down big gatherings:

Stephanie Jolly@StephanieJolly





As of March 27th. Governor @AndyBeshearKY announces KY residents should avoid traveling across the border unless essential. University testing continues in both states: KY reporting + only; TN reporting + and -

High-res PDFs: http://bit.ly/March27PDF #TogetherKy #TNStayApart





18
1:17 PM - Mar 28, 2020
Twitter Ads info and privacy

See Stephanie Jolly's other Tweets










Click on the image in the tweet to enlarge it, and note the difference on when schools were asked to close. It’s only a few days, but a few days is all it takes to make a difference with something that grows exponentially.

...

[Kathianne]

and just moments later, THIS comes across my news alerts:

https://www.abc15.com/news/state/cor...PDhqS2IRqVTuBY

Coronavirus in Arizona: Tracking latest cases, COVID-19 updates in our state
Posted: 2:25 PM, Mar 21, 2020 Updated: 9:12 AM, Mar 30, 2020
By: abc15.com staff

NUMBER OF CASES IN ARIZONA


According to the Arizona Department of Health Services, here are the latest totals of those tested and those who have tested positive for COVID-19 in Arizona. This was last updated on March 30, 2020.


Number of deaths: 20
Number of cases: 1157
Number of total tested: 16,759, at both private and state labs


Community transmission:
Widespread


Case locations by county:
Maricopa: 690
Pinal: 64
Coconino: 71
Pima: 187
Navajo: 88
Yavapai: 15
Apache: 17
Cochise: 4
Graham: 2
Santa Cruz: 2
Yuma: 6
Mohave: 7
La Paz: 2
Gila: 1
Greenlee: 1
Gila River Indian Community: 1
Navajo Nation: 128 cases, 2 deaths
Salt River Pima-Maricopa Indian Community: 1

[Abbey Marie]

and just moments later, THIS comes across my news alerts:

https://www.abc15.com/news/state/cor...PDhqS2IRqVTuBY

Coronavirus in Arizona: Tracking latest cases, COVID-19 updates in our state
Posted: 2:25 PM, Mar 21, 2020 Updated: 9:12 AM, Mar 30, 2020
By: abc15.com staff

NUMBER OF CASES IN ARIZONA


According to the Arizona Department of Health Services, here are the latest totals of those tested and those who have tested positive for COVID-19 in Arizona. This was last updated on March 30, 2020.


Number of deaths: 20
Number of cases: 1157
Number of total tested: 16,759, at both private and state labs


Community transmission:
Widespread


Case locations by county:
Maricopa: 690
Pinal: 64
Coconino: 71
Pima: 187
Navajo: 88
Yavapai: 15
Apache: 17
Cochise: 4
Graham: 2
Santa Cruz: 2
Yuma: 6
Mohave: 7
La Paz: 2
Gila: 1
Greenlee: 1
Gila River Indian Community: 1
Navajo Nation: 128 cases, 2 deaths
Salt River Pima-Maricopa Indian Community: 1

Are you Pinal?

[Kathianne]

Are you Pinal?

Yep, we're just outside of Maricopa.

[High_Plains_Drifter]

Uh-oooh... @Drummond ... looks like the UK is setting up a snitches hotline...

--------------------

Corona Snitches: Police Create Web Portal to Inform on Neighbours

A local police force in the United Kingdom has established an online portal for members of the public to inform on people suspected of breaking national lockdown measures.

Humberside Police in northern England has built a website for citizens to inform on their neighbours for violating the government’s rules on daily exercise and social distancing.

The website was crafted after the police force was inundated with reports of alleged violations to their non-emergency phone line, according to ITV.

“Reports will be assessed based on the information provided and we would ask people to please consider the circumstance before making their report,” said Chris Philpott of the Humberside Police.

“However it may be some of the reports are referred on to our partner agencies, our Local Authorities [councils] for example, who could take further action to stop gatherings in certain places,” he added.

Under the lockdown measures implemented by Prime Minister Boris Johnson, citizens permitted to leave home for their daily exercise only once per day, and public gatherings of more than two people, with the exception of families who live in the same household, have been banned.

Those who break the social distancing rules face an initial fine of £60 and £120 for a second offence.

https://www.breitbart.com/europe/202...ZivtxTVB34RENc

[High_Plains_Drifter]

Yep, we're just outside of Maricopa.

Have you been out at all, Kath?

I remember the through town traffic in Phoenix being 6 lanes of bumper to bumper inch worm... curious if it's gone down...

[Kathianne]

Have you been out at all, Kath?

I remember the through town traffic in Phoenix being 6 lanes of bumper to bumper inch worm... curious if it's gone down...

It's not like that here. I haven't been to Phoenix since Spring, for some shopping and entertainment. It's there when I want it, but not going to live there. Never lived in Chicago or Cook County, but I still loved the city offerings.

[Kathianne]

Just a good, 'damn they're good!' Abbot again.

https://www.engadget.com/2020-03-28-...-test-fda.html

Lab-in-a-box test can detect COVID-19 in 5 minutes

The FDA has cleared the device for use during the pandemic.

The FDA has scrambled to allow numerous COVID-19 tests in a bid to control the pandemic, but one of the latest may represent a big step forward in technology fighting the disease. Abbott has received emergency use authorization for a variant of its toaster-sized ID NOW lab-in-a-box that can provide positive results in as soon as five minutes, and all-clear results in 13 minutes. On top of this, it's one of the few tests of its kind that can be used outside of a hospital, such as at a clinic.




The key is its use of molecular testing that looks for a small section of the SARS-CoV-2 virus' RNA and amplifying that segment until there's enough to detect. Other testing methods can take hours or days to produce viable results.
Abbott is in the midst of ramping up production and expects to deliver 50,000 of the tests per day in the US as of next week. However, one of its greatest advantages may be its existing footprint. The ID NOW platform already has the "largest" molecular testing presence in the US, and is already "widely available" in doctors' offices and emergency rooms. If all goes well, the US could both have a more accurate representation of the pandemic's scope and ensure that the infected get the right care as quickly as possible.