NBC: CIA warned of risks of war in the Mideast
Pre-war reports say agency predicted dangers of toppling Saddam's regime
By Lisa Myers and Robert Windrem
NBC News Investigative Unit
Updated: 2 hours, 28 minutes ago
In a move sure to raise even more questions about the decision to go to war
with Iraq, the Senate Select Committee on Intelligence will on Friday
release selected portions of pre-war intelligence in which the CIA warned
the administration of the risk and consequences of a conflict in the Middle
East.
Among other things, the 40-page Senate report reveals that two intelligence
assessments before the war accurately predicted that toppling Saddam could
lead to a dangerous period of internal violence and provide a boost to
terrorists. But those warnings were seemingly ignored.
In January 2003, two months before the invasion, the intelligence
community's think tank — the National Intelligence Council — issued an
assessment warning that after Saddam was toppled, there was “a significant
chance that domestic groups would engage in violent conflict with each other
and that rogue Saddam loyalists would wage guerilla warfare either by
themselves or in alliance with terrorists.”
It also warned that “many angry young recruits” would fuel the rank of
Islamic extremists and "Iraqi political culture is so embued with mores
(opposed) to the democratic experience … that it may resist the most
rigorous and prolonged democratic tutorials."
None of those warnings were reflected in the administration's predictions
about the war.
In fact, Vice President Cheney stated the day before the war, “Now, I think
things have gotten so bad inside Iraq, from the standpoint of the Iraqi
people, my belief is we will, in fact, be greeted as liberators.”
A second assessment weeks before the invasion warned that the war also could
be “exploited by terrorists and extremists outside Iraq.”
The same assessment added, “Iraqi patience with an extended U.S. presence
after an overwhelming victory would be short,” and said “humanitarian
conditions in many parts of Iraq would probably not understand that the
Coalition wartime logistic pipeline would require time to reorient its
mission to humanitarian aid.”
Both assessments were given to the White House and to congressional
intelligence committees.
CIA warned of risks of war in the Mideast
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