Maybe Trump Isn't Inevitable

[Kathianne]

My first taste of eating my words caused by this election, very likely won't be the last:

http://hotair.com/archives/2016/03/0...sich-all-gain/

ABC/WaPo national poll: Trump’s lead declines, Cruz, Rubio, and Kasich all gain

POSTED AT 11:21 AM ON MARCH 8, 2016 BY ALLAHPUNDIT


We’re 12 hours away from knowing whether the “Trump fade” hinted at by last week’s results is real or not, but if you’re looking for poll data to support the thesis in the meantime, you can’t dobetter than this. I can’t think of a poll taken this year, state or national, that’s looked worse for him. He’s still ahead but Cruz is now within single digits and every important trendline is steering in the wrong direction for him.


I’ve never believed that he has a hard ceiling, for the simple reason that the subtraction of candidates from the field should mean the addition of new votes from that candidate’s supporters to Trump’s totals. And yet, 40 percent looks suspiciously like a ceiling:

Ross DouthatVerified account‏@DouthatNYT

I remember when Trump was going to get half the Jeb/Carson/Christie vote and cruise to 45 percent.








Candidates may be dropping out (Ben Carson was only the latest) but it might also be that anti-Trump sentiment is spreading quickly enough outside Trump’s base that those new votes I mentioned are getting harder to come by.

Favorable ratings also indicate an increasingly tenuous standing within the party. In early January, Republicans clearly gave Trump more favorable than unfavorable reviews, 60 percent to 39 percent. That has narrowed to a 53-46 margin, with negative marks at their highest level in Post-ABC polling since Trump entered the race. His positive ratings also trail Cruz’s 64 percent and Rubio’s 63 percent.

The Post-ABC poll finds that more than half of Republicans and GOP-leaning independents think Trump is dishonest, does not understand their problems, lacks the right experience, and does not have the right personality and temperament to be an effective president. By contrast, more than 6 in 10 Republicans say Cruz is honest, empathetic, and has the right temperament and experience; similar shares say Rubio has the first three qualities, while half say he has the right experience.

In a hypothetical head-to-head test of strength between Trump and Cruz,Republicans say they prefer the senator by 54 to 41 percent. Rubio is a narrower favorite in a one-on-one test against Trump, with an edge of 51 to 45 percent. The survey did not test a Trump-Kasich face-off.

Dip into the crosstabs and you’ll find that, among non-Trump and non-Cruz voters, Cruz wins … 72/17. In other words, if the field clears, virtually all of Rubio’s and Kasich’s support goes to Cruz over Trump. No wonder Cruz suddenly seems keen to finish off Rubio in Florida by starving him of conservative votes there; if these numbers are right, Cruz could beat Trump the rest of the way even if Trump has Florida in his back pocket.


Another killer data point: The #NeverTrump contingent within the GOP may be larger and more durable than thought.




He has a bare majority of his own party saying they’d be satisfied with his nomination and nearly a third say they’d be “very dissatisfied,” twice as many as say so for any of the other final three. Among the wider electorate, his favorable rating is 30/67(!) and, as noted in the excerpt, he’s collapsed on key “presidential” qualities:





To put that in perspective, even Hillary Clinton outpolls him on honesty, finishing with a 37/59 rating. Cruz is at least 15 points better than Trump in every metric; Rubio is at least 15 points better on three of the four, finishing nine points ahead of Trump on having the right experience. The only way you get down to 25 percent or so on questions like this, obviously, is if a significant part of your own party is giving you thumbs down in addition to all of the poor ratings you’re getting from voters in the other party.

...

[Olivia]

Trump's negatives are high.

[Kathianne]

Trump's negatives are high.

They always have been. I pretty much had figured he'd have his 'base support' about 1/3 of 'Republicans' and then there would be those he attracted to his campaign. I pretty much considered those 'solid,' they are the ones that no matter what's been brought out, 'It doesn't matter; 'they' are worse; it's not what's 'important.'

I assumed that there was a core of Bernie supporters that might well go to Trump, when he failed to win the nomination or even before. They are basically nihilistic to begin with.

Not saying it will hold, he may well come roaring back. Since the last debate it seems that some of his 'added voters' have peeled away and he's not picking up those from candidates that have exited.

I'm pretty well shocked, but it gives me a ray of hope.

[DLT]

They always have been. I pretty much had figured he'd have his 'base support' about 1/3 of 'Republicans' and then there would be those he attracted to his campaign. I pretty much considered those 'solid,' they are the ones that no matter what's been brought out, 'It doesn't matter; 'they' are worse; it's not what's 'important.'

I assumed that there was a core of Bernie supporters that might well go to Trump, when he failed to win the nomination or even before. They are basically nihilistic to begin with.

Not saying it will hold, he may well come roaring back. Since the last debate it seems that some of his 'added voters' have peeled away and he's not picking up those from candidates that have exited.

I'm pretty well shocked, but it gives me a ray of hope.

Every time he opens his vulgar piehole, he makes it more and more unlikely that I will be able to hold my nose and vote for him in order to vote against Hillary or Sanders. And I'm not the only one. If you do the math, Trump has NO chance to win the GE. None. Yet still so many people back him. It's bizarre.

[Black Diamond]

My first taste of eating my words caused by this election, very likely won't be the last:

http://hotair.com/archives/2016/03/0...sich-all-gain/

Do you think Kasich will drop out after Ohio? How do you think it would go if it were three : Trump Cruz, Kasich

[Kathianne]

Looks like Trump's night.

Wins MS, looking to take MI.

[gabosaurus]

They always have been. I pretty much had figured he'd have his 'base support' about 1/3 of 'Republicans' and then there would be those he attracted to his campaign. I pretty much considered those 'solid,' they are the ones that no matter what's been brought out, 'It doesn't matter; 'they' are worse; it's not what's 'important.'

I assumed that there was a core of Bernie supporters that might well go to Trump, when he failed to win the nomination or even before. They are basically nihilistic to begin with.

I have always thought Trump's support came from two camps. One is a core group of older white conservative males who feel Obama's presidency has legitimized the ascension of minorities in America. They want a return to when white males dictated policy and made all the important decision. The second is those curious about Trump's decidedly non-traditional approach that brought the cut throat business approach to politics.

Sanders supporters are mostly younger voters energized by his pie-in-the-sky dreams that pass for campaign promises. Polls show that the vast majority of them will support Clinton because she is more user-friendly that Trump or Cruz.
While Trump and Cruz are angrily slashing at each others throats and going deep into their opponent's closet of horrors, Clinton has primarily dealt in traditional platitudes. Because that is what has always appealed to mainstream Dems and independents.
This is why the media has often shunted coverage of the Dem debates to the back pages. Compared to the slash and burn Republican shoutfests, Clinton and Sanders might as well be throwing oatmeal at each others.

Remember the age old media axiom: If it bleeds, it leads. And there has been a lot of blood shed in the GOP debates.

[LongTermGuy]

Ahhhh...yes...all the talk...talk...talk...talk......"Negatives are high"...or "ray of hope Trump will Fail" They Huff and they Puff...all the money spent to "Beat Trump".....


>>People's Choice - Do it anyway you wanna Baby<<

[gabosaurus]

I totally agree. I want The Donald to win the GOP nomination. In the most contentious manner possible. I want him to ride his chariot into Cleveland over the broken and battered bodies of Cruz and Rubio.
I want a repeat of the 1968 Democratic Convention, done Republican style.

[tailfins]

Ahhhh...yes...all the talk...talk...talk...talk......"Negatives are high"...or "ray of hope Trump will Fail" They Huff and they Puff...all the money spent to "Beat Trump".....


>>People's Choice - Do it anyway you wanna Baby<<

The result of a Trump nomination will be to squeeze conservatives out of the Republican party. Skipping CPAC should tell you that Trump is more than willing to give conservatives the middle finger.

[tailfins]

I totally agree. I want The Donald to win the GOP nomination. In the most contentious manner possible. I want him to ride his chariot into Cleveland over the broken and battered bodies of Cruz and Rubio.
I want a repeat of the 1968 Democratic Convention, done Republican style.

You're not the only Democrat that wants that.

[Tyr-Ziu Saxnot]

The result of a Trump nomination will be to squeeze conservatives out of the Republican party. Skipping CPAC should tell you that Trump is more than willing to give conservatives the middle finger.

You are an idiot, I am about as conservative as they come and I support him fully.
He skipped CPAC because it was one big trap and he was wise enough not to put his foot in it,
el stupido.
Damn, you are retarded, methinks . -Tyr

[LongTermGuy]

You are an idiot, I am about as conservative as they come and I support him fully.
He skipped CPAC because it was one big trap and he was wise enough not to put his foot in it,
el stupido.
Damn, you are retarded, methinks . -Tyr

*Exactly..Trump was smart...busy working elsewhere..

Breath easy my friend... understand...

[DLT]

You are an idiot, I am about as conservative as they come and I support him fully.
He skipped CPAC because it was one big trap and he was wise enough not to put his foot in it,
el stupido.
Damn, you are retarded, methinks . -Tyr

This is getting ridiculous. So now, if you see Trump as a threat to our nation....you get called nasty names and attacked personally?

Here's a clue. I am convinced that Trump is in it as a spoiler candidate only. And for that I've been insulted, personally attacked for my belief and demeaned by some not-so-nice Trump supporters. Look at it this way. Even if I'm wrong about Trump, the end results are the same. He has successfully fukked up the GOP chances to win in November. Mission Accomplished.

[tailfins]

This is getting ridiculous. So now, if you see Trump as a threat to our nation....you get called nasty names and attacked personally?

Here's a clue. I am convinced that Trump is in it as a spoiler candidate only. And for that I've been insulted, personally attacked for my belief and demeaned by some not-so-nice Trump supporters. Look at it this way. Even if I'm wrong about Trump, the end results are the same. He has successfully fukked up the GOP chances to win in November. Mission Accomplished.

Put on your statistician's hat and just treat it as information regarding what kind people are the T-Rump supporters. I'm not disappointed at T-Rump, per se (or "per say" if this is being read by a T-Rump supporter). What I am disappointed at is how dumbed-down a significant number of GOP voters have become. If T-Rump is beaten, the ground is fertile for another to come along. I see Kim Kardashian or "Snooki" running for office and getting elected.