Gallup has Obama up by 2 points

[red states rule]

This is not good for the left

GALLUP's 'traditional' likely voter model shows Obama with a 2 point lead McCain on Thursday, 49% to 47%

This is the traditional likely voter and has a history of voting



Gallup is presenting two likely voter estimates to see how preferences might vary under different turnout scenarios. The "expanded" model determines likely voters based only on current voting intentions. This estimate would take into account higher turnout among groups of voters traditionally less likely to vote, such as young adults and minorities. That model has generally produced results that closely match the registered voter figures, but with a lower undecided percentage, and show Obama up by six percentage points today, 51% to 45%.

The "traditional" likely voter model, which Gallup has employed for past elections, factors in prior voting behavior as well as current voting intention. This has generally shown a closer contest, reflecting the fact that Republicans have typically been more likely to vote than Democrats in previous elections. Today's results show Obama with a two-point advantage over McCain using this likely voter model, 49% to 47%, this is within the poll's margin of error. -- Frank Newport


For the Gallup Poll Daily tracking survey, Gallup is interviewing no fewer than 1,000 U.S. adults nationwide each day during 2008.

The general-election results are based on combined data from Oct. 13-15, 2008. For results based on this sample of 2,786 registered voters, the maximum margin of sampling error is ±2 percentage points.

For results based on the sample of 2,143 "traditional" likely voters (based on the model taking into account current voting intention and past voting behavior), the maximum margin of sampling error is ±2 percentage points.

For results based on the sample of 2,312 more broadly defined likely voters (based on the model taking into account current voting intention only), the maximum margin of sampling error is ±2 percentage points.

Interviews are conducted with respondents on landline telephones (for respondents with a landline telephone) and cellular phones (for respondents who are cell phone only).

In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

http://www.gallup.com/poll/111211/Ga...McCain-43.aspx

[eighballsidepocket]

I haven't looked at the polls since the debate, but are you saying that this is a tightening of the race?

I.E. What did the previous Gallup poll say before the debate?

2 points is well within the margin of error, as I understand.

Red: How about some other polls besides Gallup, like Zogby, Rasmussen....etc... What are they saying? Do they show a tightening-up of the race after the debate?

[red states rule]

I haven't looked at the polls since the debate, but are you saying that this is a tightening of the race?

I.E. What did the previous Gallup poll say before the debate?

2 points is well within the margin of error, as I understand.

Red: How about some other polls besides Gallup, like Zogby, Rasmussen....etc... What are they saying? Do they show a tightening-up of the race after the debate?

The race is getting close

Gallup had Obama up by as much as 11 points. Now, i do not know if that was by the tradiitional method

Zogby has Obama up by 4.5 points

Obama may win, but it does not look like a blowout

Perhaps Obama's admission of socialism (spreading the wealth aorund) will come back to bite him of the ass

[Little-Acorn]

No polls have been published yet, with data taken after the debate. This one is a three-day average for Oct. 13, 14, and 15.

[red states rule]

No polls have been published yet, with data taken after the debate. This one is a three-day average for Oct. 13, 14, and 15.

I do want to see how many people want their wealth spread around.

[eighballsidepocket]

No polls have been published yet, with data taken after the debate. This one is a three-day average for Oct. 13, 14, and 15.

If that's the case, then things could be tighter than a 2 point spread, as I think Sen. McCain handled this last debate better than the previous one.

Still, he's too much of a gentleman with Sen. Obama. He has enough ammunition on B.O. to put him off balance in a big way, but he starts to plunge the spear and then backs off.

Most commentators last night, even on Fox, said that McCain opens up a nasty can of worms for Obama to deal with in the debate, but doesn't carry it out to completion.

How do you deal with someone who's getting the charisma vote? You've got to work on the vunerable spots.......Like associations of Obama, do cast a light on his ability to discern what is wise and not. He has too many friendships with too many people of questionable character, yet the majority of the media wears blinders to those important topics; nothing like obvious bias.

[red states rule]

If that's the case, then things could be tighter than a 2 point spread, as I think Sen. McCain handles this last debate better than the previous one.

Still, he's too much of a gentleman with Sen. Obama. He has enough ammunition on B.O. to put him off balance in a big way, but he starts to plunge the spear and then backs off.

Most commentators last night, even on Fox, said that McCain opens up a nasty can of worms for Obama to deal with in the debate, but doesn't carry it out to completion.

How do you deal with someone who's getting the charisma vote? You've got to work on the vunerable spots.......Like associations of Obama do cast a light on his ability to discern what is wise and not.

McCain has not run a good campaign. He is trying to run a PC campaign against Chicgao street thug

Obama has pitched many slow hanging curve balls to McCain and he has not taken a swing at them

Given the current circumstances, Obama should be up by 15 to 20 points - yet it is close. Obama can't close the sale and people have doubts about this raciist socialist

[OCA]

More disinformation from the biggest partisan hack on the board......RSR

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/polls/

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epo...ama_vs_mccain/

Game over

[red states rule]

More disinformation from the biggest partisan hack on the board......RSR

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/polls/

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epo...ama_vs_mccain/

Game over

I listed the link from Gallup. Learn to read before you rant

[OCA]

I listed the link from Gallup. Learn to read before you rant

Why don't you list their expanded poll also Mr. Disinformation?

Your desperation is shameful lol.

[red states rule]

Why don't you list their expanded poll also Mr. Disinformation?

Your desperation is shameful lol.

I did

Maybe you are to lazy or stupid to read the entire link

Here are the first 2 paragraphs I posted

Gallup is presenting two likely voter estimates to see how preferences might vary under different turnout scenarios. The "expanded" model determines likely voters based only on current voting intentions. This estimate would take into account higher turnout among groups of voters traditionally less likely to vote, such as young adults and minorities. That model has generally produced results that closely match the registered voter figures, but with a lower undecided percentage, and show Obama up by six percentage points today, 51% to 45%.

The "traditional" likely voter model, which Gallup has employed for past elections, factors in prior voting behavior as well as current voting intention. This has generally shown a closer contest, reflecting the fact that Republicans have typically been more likely to vote than Democrats in previous elections. Today's results show Obama with a two-point advantage over McCain using this likely voter model, 49% to 47%, this is within the poll's margin of error. -- Frank Newport

[OCA]

I did

Maybe you are to lazy or stupid to read the entire link

Here are the first 2 paragraphs I posted

Gallup is presenting two likely voter estimates to see how preferences might vary under different turnout scenarios. The "expanded" model determines likely voters based only on current voting intentions. This estimate would take into account higher turnout among groups of voters traditionally less likely to vote, such as young adults and minorities. That model has generally produced results that closely match the registered voter figures, but with a lower undecided percentage, and show Obama up by six percentage points today, 51% to 45%.

The "traditional" likely voter model, which Gallup has employed for past elections, factors in prior voting behavior as well as current voting intention. This has generally shown a closer contest, reflecting the fact that Republicans have typically been more likely to vote than Democrats in previous elections. Today's results show Obama with a two-point advantage over McCain using this likely voter model, 49% to 47%, this is within the poll's margin of error. -- Frank Newport

So in the past, when you were on your personal rants against Congress, real clear's averages were just fine but now they aren't.................maybe because the averages show J.Lib and Mrs. Wasilla getting trounced and that Obama already has enough electoral votes solidly in his favor to be elected......IOW J.Lib is mathematically eliminated. Only wish there were more debates so more Repubs would swing to Obama like they did last night.

You are grasping at straws because Americans have figured out that they would continue to get hosed by Republicans and would make out quite well under an Obama admin.................thats a fact verified by independent tax watchdog groups.

[red states rule]

So in the past, when you were on your personal rants against Congress, real clear's averages were just fine but now they aren't.................maybe because the averages show J.Lib and Mrs. Wasilla getting trounced and that Obama already has enough electoral votes solidly in his favor to be elected......IOW J.Lib is mathematically eliminated. Only wish there were more debates so more Repubs would swing to Obama like they did last night.

You are grasping at straws because Americans have figured out that they would continue to get hosed by Republicans and would make out quite well under an Obama admin.................thats a fact verified by independent tax watchdog groups.

So you are not man enough to admit you screwed up - so be it

I am pointing out the polls have closed, and you are out to flame and deraile the thread. Go ahead and take your best shot

[REDWHITEBLUE2]

I listed the link from Gallup. Learn to read before you rant

OCA is nothing more then a Liberal Tool just like womenfrommaine

[OCA]

So you are not man enough to admit you screwed up - so be it

I am pointing out the polls have closed, and you are out to flame and deraile the thread. Go ahead and take your best shot

Flame? Is that the best you can do when proven wrong? Your title of this thread says that Gallup has Obama up by 2, doesn't matter what the body says, just the title..............if you were honest you would take the average of the two Gallup polls and call it 4 points but you've never been accused of being honest, have you?

Why don't you address Obama's death grip on the electoral college and his inroads into states that haven't voted Demo since Kennedy? Or is that just too much to bear?